BANGKOK, Thailand — Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resisted demands on Sunday that she resign, shrugging off warnings by politicians, analysts and the media of a possible military coup after she criticized a Royal Thai Army commander during a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen.
The current crisis began May 28, when Thai troops shot dead one Cambodian soldier in the disputed Emerald Triangle where eastern Thailand, northern Cambodia and southern Laos meet. Since then, the release of a taped conciliatory phone call between Ms. Shinawatra and Mr. Hun Sen has energized the prime minister’s critics, including the nation’s powerful military.
“Analysts said another coup would create more problems than it would solve. It would be a disaster for the country, which has still not fully recovered from the consequences of the previous coup in 2014,” the conservative Bangkok Post warned in a Friday editorial.
“Despite assurances from the army chief about protecting democracy, concerns are mounting over a possible military intervention,” Bloomberg News reported on Friday.
“A dangerous game that could lead to self-destruction!” Cambodia’s de facto leader, Senate President Mr. Hun Sen, wrote in Khmer language online on Friday.
He was responding to Thais who suggested Bangkok cut off oil exports to Cambodia as a negotiating pressure tactic to solve the border dispute.
“If you want that, go ahead with your plan,” Mr. Hun Sen said.
“If Thailand is bold enough, try expelling all Cambodian workers and see how much impact it would have on the Thai economy,” he wrote in an online post, referring to the thousands of skilled and semi-skilled Cambodians who labor in Thailand’s agricultural, construction, transportation and other sectors.
When the audio of Ms. Paetongtarn’s conversation on her personal mobile phone with Mr. Hun Sen on June 15 was leaked, it exposed her comments about the military confrontation along the disputed frontier, and her sensational statements about Thailand’s Second Army Region Commander Lt. Gen. Boonsin Padklang.
In the leaked call, she said to Mr. Hun Sen that she did not want him “to listen to the opposing side, especially since the [Thai] Second Army Region commander is entirely from the opposition.
“He [the Thai commander] just wants to appear cool or impressive. He may say things that are not beneficial to the country,” Ms. Paetongtarn told Mr. Hun Sen.
Lt. Gen. Boonsin Paadklang commands the Second Army Region, guarding northeastern Thailand’s border with Cambodia, including the disputed Emerald Triangle where the gunfire erupted.
On Sunday, Ms. Paetongtarn resisted demands for her to resign or call a snap election, and vowed to stay on despite warnings that her clinging to power amid the crisis could trigger a coup if the military perceives her as anti-army.
“The prime minister has firmly affirmed to us that she will continue to fully carry out her duties in addressing the crises the country is currently facing,” her Tourism and Sports Minister and party Secretary-General Sorawong Thienthong stated on Friday.
The Buddhist-majority Southeast Asian U.S. ally has suffered more than a dozen coups since changing from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy in 1932.
The Thai military toppled Ms. Paetongtarn’s billionaire father, twice-elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in a 2006 coup.
In a 2014 putsch, the military overthrew the government of her aunt, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
“To say that Thailand is entering treacherous waters is an understatement,” wrote Pravit Rojanaphruk, a Khaosod English news columnist on Sunday. “Depending on how the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government and people handle the situation in the coming days and weeks, Thailand could see its relationship with its neighbor, Cambodia, regressing by decades, or could face a military coup — or both,” Mr. Pravit said.
The appearance of a possible disruption in relations between Thailand’s civilian-led government and the U.S.-trained military is “spurring fears that the military may step in and intervene,” said the Bangkok Post’s Sunday editorial. “This should not and must not be allowed to happen.”
On Sunday, Cambodia shut its border’s remaining open crossing with Thailand after the Thai army ordered several frontier crossings to be locked.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn, in office for less than a year, apologized for her leaked call which caused Thailand’s financial markets to shake, small street protests to demand her resignation and suggestions of candidates’ names to replace her if she does resign and call for an early general election, or allow parliament to elect a new leader from among the House of Representatives, instead of waiting until polls due in 2027.
Ms. Paetongtarn said after the leak, “We don’t have time for infighting. We have to protect our sovereignty. The government is ready to support the military in all ways.”
“Paetongtarn’s public expression of contrition was clearly not accepted by [Thai] ultranationalist conservatives and they now want her out, or a military coup to oust her, and a tougher stance against Cambodia on the border disputes and economic front,” Mr. Pravit said.
If the prime minister cannot survive her political crisis, the best option according to several analysts is for Ms. Paetongtarn to resign and allow a new prime minister to step forward from her Pheu Thai Party or a coalition member.
That candidate could be confirmed by parliament’s 495-member House of Representatives while her administration limps along as a caretaker government.
The second-best option is for her to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections, which risks the turbulence of nationwide campaigning and unpredictability over who might be victorious in general elections, followed by months of political deal-making before parliament confirms a winner.
The worst case scenario is for the military to stage yet another coup, establish a junta and rule until a civilian can be found willing to collaborate and be the public face of a new regime.
Analysts say the list of potential replacements for Ms. Paetongtarn include:
— Ms. Paetongtarn’s ruling populous Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, though some are concerned about his health. Mr. Chaikasem could assure supporters of continuity, but may not be enough of a change to quell possible questions among the military about Ms. Paetongtarn’s party support for the army.
— Anutin Charnvirakul, the feisty, confident leader of the Bhumjaithai (Proud to be Thai) Party who pulled his party’s 69 parliamentarians out of Ms. Paetongtarn’s coalition government on Wednesday and expressed strong support for the military in its confrontation with Cambodia.
— Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, leader of the Ruam Thai Sang Chart (United Thai Nation) Party’s 36 parliamentarians, and the current energy minister and a deputy prime minister. Mr. Pirapan’s party, founded in 2021, is conservative, royalist and pro-military and supported former coup leader and prime minister Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha several years ago.
Ms. Paetongtarn, 38, sounded inexperienced and overly reverent during her phone call on June 15 to the hardened, authoritarian Mr. Hun, a former prime minister and former Khmer Rouge regiment commander under Pol Pot during their guerrilla war against Cambodia’s U.S.-backed regime in the 1970s.
“It’s understandable why many went ballistic upon hearing the 17-minute clip, because the Thai prime minister spoke more like a little girl,” Mr. Pravit, the columnist wrote.
Mr. Hun Sen repeatedly asked for all of Thailand’s border crossings with Cambodia to be immediately reopened, followed by Cambodia opening the crossings on its side five hours later.
Ms. Paetongtarn appeared to agree but told Mr. Hun Sen that she did not want him “to listen to the opposing side, especially since the [Thai] Second Army Region commander is entirely from the opposition.
“He [the commander] just wants to appear cool or impressive. He may say [hawkish] things that are not beneficial to the country,” she told Mr. Hun Sen.
Lt. Gen. Boonsin Padklang commands the Second Army Region based along the Thai-Cambodian border, including the disputed Emerald Triangle where the deadly shooting occurred.
“I would like the prime minister to show determination and be mindful in solving the problems,” Lt. Gen. Boonsin said told The Standard after the leak.
“The prime minister made an immediate phone call to me to apologize after that,” Lt. Gen. Boonsin said, referring to Ms. Paetongtarn’s leaked statements.
Ms. Paetongtarn, who appointed a civilian as defense minister, said she gave Lt. Gen. Boonsin control over opening or closing all Thai-Cambodia border crossings.
“Border checkpoints will not be fully opened. Let’s have an RBC (Regional Border Committee) meeting first,” Lt. Gen. Boonsin said, referring to an official group of Thai and Cambodian regional army commanders who try to mediate frontier issues.
He said the border should remain shut to allow both sides to cool down after the bloody Emerald Triangle confrontation on May 28.
“This is the reason why we will not yet open checkpoints 100%,” Lt. Gen. Boonsin told The Standard.