Leah Aldridge, a conservative voter in Georgia, backed Nikki Haley in the Republican primary and is tired of the political circus that surrounds former President Donald Trump.
But Ms. Aldridge says Mr. Trump probably will earn her vote a third time in November because she’s too worried about what President Biden has done with the border.
“In the end, I do feel that the southern border is the issue which will determine my vote,” she told The Washington Times. “That is such a bright line difference between the two candidates.”
Ms. Aldridge is part of an emerging bloc of “border moms” — some call them “safety moms” — for whom rising fears of crime and an uncontrolled border are roiling the 2024 race and pushing them into Mr. Trump’s camp.
It’s a key demographic for Mr. Trump, who has long suffered from a gender gap, though he narrowed the gap in his 2020 matchup with Mr. Biden. Further gains for Mr. Trump among female voters only make reelection more challenging for Mr. Biden.
The border mom’s fears came together this year with the murder of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student killed at the University of Georgia in a slaying blamed on an illegal immigrant caught and released at the border by the Biden administration.
Then there was the mob beating of police officers in New York City, rapes in Louisiana and Massachusetts, the shooting death of a 2-year-old in Maryland, and the murder of a woman in Michigan — all being blamed on illegal immigrants who were beneficiaries of relaxed immigration policies under Mr. Biden.
What’s particularly worrying to border moms is the nexus with fentanyl, the deadly synthetic opioid that is flooding the U.S. thanks to the Mexican smuggling cartels that also control the illegal flow of people.
“This is my kid, this your kid. This is happening all over and it is happening in our community,” Ms. Aldridge said.
It’s an issue that is causing Democrats to lose suburban women voters, said Paul Shumaker, a North Carolina-based GOP pollster.
“Joe Biden has a big problem on the immigration front because that issue is seen as a security issue at home in the suburbs with these women,” he said. “They tie in fentanyl with it, and drug overdoses.
“The border is the biggest problem facing the president and his reelection.”
The Biden campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Scrambling to find some solid footing on the issue, Democrats accused Mr. Trump of demonizing all immigrants, including in Michigan this week when he used the words “animals” and “not human” to describe them.
But Republicans were quick to point out that Mr. Trump was singling out the illegal immigrant charged with killing Ms. Riley in Georgia.
“If somebody murders another human being, I think they deserve to be called animals, and I don’t think any American is really going to reject that kind of rhetoric,” Republican strategist Scott Jennings said on CNN. “That poor girl was murdered in cold blood. Is that person who did it not an animal? I think that is an apt term.”
Democrats are hoping to counter the illegal immigration issue with appeals on abortion rights.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows that 13% of women voters list immigration as their top issue, while 11% list abortion. Both are topped by inflation at 24%.
More than 6 in 10 female voters in the poll disapproved of the way Mr. Biden has handled immigration.
Those findings are similar to other polls that show immigration at the top of mind for voters in general and show a big thumbs-down for Mr. Biden’s border policies.
That’s powered chiefly by Republicans, who give Mr. Biden abysmal marks for his performance. But even among Democrats, polls show a rising appetite for tougher solutions.
Trump world figures see a significant opportunity to overcome reluctance to the former president.
“We now have a new class of voters called ‘safety moms,’ and when Donald Trump, who they know is strong, says I will keep you safe, they believe him. And then they look at Joe Biden and see how weak he is it makes them nervous,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin.
“There are plenty of safety moms who may not like Trump’s tweets or watch his rallies or speeches, but they want him back in the White House now because they and their families will feel safer.”
• Stephen Dinan contributed to this report.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.