Former President Donald Trump is on track to win 20% or more of the Black vote in November, biting into President Biden’s base and tipping the numbers in his favor nationally and, more importantly, in battleground states.
An average of recent polls shows Mr. Trump leading in the seven swing states that will likely determine who will control the White House next year.
The former president’s advantage among voters averages from a bare lead of 0.1 percentage points in Wisconsin to nearly 5 points in Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada, according to RealClearPolitics.
In nearly all the polls, Mr. Trump was ahead of Mr. Biden in the swing states with the help of Black voters. Along with other minority voters, they have abandoned Mr. Biden in significant numbers, mostly over the economy.
Mr. Trump’s internal polling reflects a similar upward trend in Black voter support in the battleground states.
“It’s being driven by middle-class and working-class Blacks,” said Jim McLaughlin, who polls for the Trump campaign. “They are comparing Biden and Trump, and they believe when Trump was president, they had more money in their pockets and they felt safer.”
Mr. Trump is vying for an even greater share of minority voters by promising to fix the economy, secure the southern border and lower crime rates.
On Thursday, the former president staged a rally in the South Bronx, drawing a huge crowd in a traditionally Democratic enclave where most of the population is Black and Hispanic and a large percentage is working class.
While most analysts consider Mr. Trump’s chances of winning New York remote, the former president’s enthusiastic reception there is emblematic of Mr. Biden’s shrinking support from the Democratic Party’s longtime loyal base of non-White voters, particularly young non-White men.
If Mr. Trump increases his support among Black voters by just a few percentage points, it could cost Mr. Biden swing states, six of which he narrowly won in 2020 and where registered Black voters make up 5% to 30% of the electorate.
In Georgia, where Mr. Biden prevailed in 2020 by fewer than 12,000 votes, roughly 2.1 million registered voters are Black, making up 30% of the registered electorate, state data shows.
A New York Times/Siena poll released this month found Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden in Georgia by three percentage points, and his lead was bumped up by support from Black voters.
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The poll found that 20% of Black registered voters in the state planned to or were leaning toward voting for Mr. Trump in a head-to-head matchup, a dramatic increase from 2020 exit polling, which showed 11% of Black voters chose Mr. Trump at the ballot box.
In the same poll, only 66% of Georgia’s Black registered voters said they would back Mr. Biden, a sharp decrease from the 88% of Black voters who helped him flip the state four years ago.
Overall, Mr. Trump’s support has grown remarkably in the battleground states surveyed, which, in addition to Georgia, include Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
On average, 23% of Black voters backed or leaned toward Mr. Trump, up from 9% who said they voted for him in 2020 and a 19% jump from the same poll four years ago, when just 4% planned to vote for him.
Mr. Biden’s support among Black swing state voters appears to have plummeted from 87% who said they voted for him in 2020 to 63% who say they plan to or are leaning toward voting for him in November.
Among Black voters, 76% rated the economy — their No. 1 issue — as fair or poor.
Mr. Trump’s encroachment on the president’s once-loyal base of Black voters is rattling the Biden campaign, which has deployed Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to Black communities in Georgia and other swing states.
The Biden campaign has also pumped $1 million into advertising in Black media.
“The President has done more Black radio interviews than any other medium thus far on the campaign — eleven interviews this year alone,” Biden campaign senior adviser Trey Baker said in a memo about Mr. Biden’s Black outreach.
Earlier this month, Mr. Biden sat down with popular D.J. and rapper Big Tigger before visiting Morehouse College, where he delivered the commencement address to the 2024 graduates.
The president also made a weekend campaign swing through Detroit, a heavily Black enclave that traditionally votes Democratic. He visited a Black-owned business and addressed attendees at an NAACP dinner.
Mr. Biden’s support among Black voters in Michigan has been steadily dropping from 88% who voted for him in 2020 to 82% in March and down to 77% in April, according to CBS News Polls.
Of Michigan’s 8.3 million registered voters, an estimated 14.2% are Black, according to Catalist, a data company that provides demographic breakdowns of the electorate for Democratic and liberal groups.
Analysts say polls showing rising support among Black voters for Mr. Trump doesn’t guarantee they will vote for him in November, but it signals a serious lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Biden that could significantly depress turnout for him in November.
In battleground states, including Pennsylvania, which Mr. Biden won by just 80,000 votes, even a small shift in the Black vote could flip the state to Mr. Trump.
Black voters made up 11% of the state’s nearly 7 million voters who turned out in 2020, according to exit polling. Seven percent voted for Mr. Trump, while 92% voted for Mr. Biden.
In the New York Times/Siena Poll, 18% of Black registered voters in Pennsylvania said they would vote for Mr. Trump in November in a head-to-head matchup, while 69% said they would choose Mr. Biden.
Overall, the survey showed that Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 47% to 44%. Black voters in Pennsylvania ranked the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election. Among them, 88% rated economic conditions fair or poor.
Bernard Yost, director of the Lancaster, Pennsylvania-based Franklin and Marshall College Poll, said the numbers show daunting challenges for the Biden campaign in shoring up support among Black voters, even if they don’t ultimately cast their votes for Mr. Trump.
“The big question is, are these people who’ve expressed dissatisfaction at the end of the day really going to vote for Trump? Or will they stay home?” he said. “The net effect is probably close to the same because Biden needs them to come out and support him.”
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.