President Biden’s support for Israel’s targeted attacks on Gaza is tarnishing his image among Arab American voters who helped him win four years ago but threaten to desert him in swing states this fall.
The backlash to Mr. Biden’s support for Israel’s military response to the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack has been on display in the campaign. And now an Arab American Institute poll released Thursday showed Mr. Biden trails former President Donald Trump among this small — but potentially powerful — slice of the electorate.
Mr. Trump’s support with these voters has remained rather steady, while Mr. Biden’s has plummeted since outperforming the Republican 59% to 35% in 2020.
The new online survey of 900 Arab American voters in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia showed Mr. Trump, who also supports Israel’s right to defend itself, with a 32% to 18% edge over Mr. Biden.
The lion’s share of these voters remain undecided or lean toward third-party candidates.
For Mr. Biden, the most worrisome thing about these findings is what it means for him in Michigan. The state remains an integral part of his path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win re-election.
Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in Michigan in 2020 by just over 154,000 votes.
But 100,000 people cast their ballot for “uncommitted” in the Democratic presidential primary this year to protest Mr. Biden’s handling of the war. Large numbers of those votes came from Arab and Muslim American communities.
The Arab American Institute poll also shows 79% of Arab Americans have a negative view of Mr. Biden, and 56% have a negative view of Mr. Trump.
“The simple reason why Biden’s numbers and ratings are so low is, in a word, Gaza,” the poll analysis says.
Still, there is a possible silver lining for Mr. Biden.
His support would snap back to 2020 levels if he demanded an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid into Gaza or froze diplomatic and military support to Israel until they embrace a ceasefire and withdraw forces from Gaza, the poll showed.
The situation in Gaza got messier for the Biden administration over the weekend after an Israeli airstrike in the southern city of Rafah killed two senior Hamas officials, as well as dozens of innocent displaced Palestinians, including children, living in a tent encampment.
Rafah is one of the last strongholds for Hamas, which kickstarted the latest conflict after launching an October attack in southern Israel that led to an estimated 1,200 deaths. The Israeli military response has led to the deaths of 36,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health.
Israel defense officials said the initial findings from the bombing this weekend pointed to a secondary explosion.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, rejected the idea that Israel had crossed the president’s red line with the attack, which drew international condemnation, and added to the frustration of Arab American voters.
National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters this week the administration laments the loss of any innocent life, but said the strike does not amount to the sort of major ground operation with “thousands and thousands of troops” that Mr. Biden has warned against.
Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Thursday on CNN that when an administration establishes a red line in a conflict there will be different interpretations of whether or not that line has been crossed.
Mr. Panetta said Israel appears to be trying to stay within the limits of taking a targeted approach that seeks to hit specific targets “rather than use the kind of weapons that destroy Rafah and harm civilians.”
“As long as that is the case then obviously we can continue to proceed with our position, but we are going to have to pay close attention,” he said. “When you get into a situation in Rafah where your forces are there and they are confronting an enemy it is oftentimes difficult to put limits on how they approach fighting an enemy and that really does involve a lot of risk here as to whether or not this red line is ultimately going to be crossed or not.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.