Recent polls have delivered a major warning to President Biden, showing his support among young voters is not only slipping, but also they’re flocking to former President Donald Trump.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Tuesday found that Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 49% to 43% among voters 18 to 29. It marks the first time Mr. Trump has been ahead of his successor among youth voters since Mr. Biden took office.
The survey also shows a severe decline in enthusiasm among young voters for the president. Ahead of the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden had a 21-point lead over Mr. Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, and in July he led by 10 points over his expected 2024 opponent.
Separately, an NBC News poll last month found that Mr. Biden’s approval rating among voters 18 to 34 is 31%, a sharp drop from 46% in September.
A Harvard University poll released last week shows that among 18 to 29-year-olds, Mr. Biden’s approval rating stands at 35%.
In the 2020 election, young people helped deliver a victory for Mr. Biden when 60% of them came out in force for him.
One bright spot for Mr. Biden was that the New York Times/Siena College poll found he had a 2-point lead among those who expected to vote in 2024. That suggests that many young voters may stay home instead backing Mr. Trump.
The Biden campaign declined to comment on the polls.
With the 2024 election expected to be one of the tightest in U.S. history, neither candidate can afford to lose much of his base. Recent polls show Black, Muslim and Hispanic Americans — who along with young voters make up the bulk of Democratic voters — are also dissatisfied with Mr. Biden.
As an increasing number of polls show Mr. Biden losing support among his base and trailing Mr. Trump or other GOP rivals, the president insists the trend isn’t so daunting.
“You’re reading the wrong polls,” Mr. Biden said Sunday as he was leaving his campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware.
There are several reasons the youth vote has soured on Mr. Biden.
Perhaps the most glaring is that some progressive youth voters view Israel as the villain in its war with Hamas. They have expressed anger at Mr. Biden for his unwavering support of the Jewish state, which they say isn’t doing enough to prevent civilian deaths in Gaza.
The New York Times/Siena College poll showed that young voters who supported Biden in 2020 and share anti-Israel views are switching to Mr. Trump.
Overall, Mr. Trump is winning 21% of young Biden 2020 voters who sympathize more with Palestinians than Israel. Mr. Biden also holds a 64% to 24% lead among voters who supported him in 2020 but say Israel is intentionally killing civilians. Among those who say Israel is not intentionally killing civilians, Mr. Biden holds an 84% to 8% lead over Mr. Trump.
It’s somewhat surprising that young voters who oppose Israel are supporting Mr. Trump because he is an even more outspoken backer of the Jewish state and has called for limiting immigration from Muslim-majority countries.
Mr. Biden has also struggled to keep a number of campaign promises that polls show have overwhelming support among young voters. These include fully canceling student loan debt, codifying Roe v. Wade and changing the Senate filibuster to allow legislation to pass by a simple majority instead of the 60-vote threshold.
Mr. Biden did successfully erase $127 billion in student debt, the most by a president in history, but the Supreme Court blocked his original plan to eliminate $400 billion of what students owe. That failure has dogged Mr. Biden among young voters since. Inflation is also battering them.
The Harvard University poll found that 7 of 10 Americans ages 18 to 29 believe the economy is very bad or fairly bad.
• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.