Amid poll numbers showing President Biden is tied or losing to former President Donald Trump, it may not take much to pull away enough voters in November to cost Democrats the election.
The Green Party’s Cornel West could be the spoiler.
Mr. West, a university professor and longtime socialist activist, announced his presidential bid in July and is now running under the Green Party banner, which aims to secure a place on the November 2024 ballot in nearly every state.
The Green Party has so far achieved ballot access in 17 states, including the critical battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan.
Mr. West, 70, enters the presidential race as polls show an increasing faction of voters are dissatisfied with the GOP and Democratic choices and are willing to consider third-party candidates.
His self-described people-powered political rebellion could pose the greatest threat to the Biden campaign, which is dealing with sinking poll numbers and mounting questions about the 80-year-old president’s mental capabilities amid a seemingly continuous display of gaffes and stumbles.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden both had 45% support while 10% remained undecided in an Emerson College national poll conducted last week. When Mr. West was added to the mix, he captured 4% of the vote with Mr. Biden dropping to 42% and Mr. Trump to 43%, while 11% were undecided.
Overall, Mr. West picked up the kind of support that could deplete the Democratic voting base in November: Seven percent of Hispanics, 5% of the Black vote and 7% of voters under the age of 35.
An even smaller percentage of those votes could cost Mr. Biden the election in the handful of swing states that Mr. Biden won by razor-thin margins in 2020 that are likely to decide the 2024 race, pollster Ron Faucheux told The Washington Times.
“Any third candidate can be a decisive threat in close states,” Mr. Faucheux said. “If West takes most of his votes from Biden, which is likely, it could potentially flip electoral votes to the Republicans in some swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.”
Mr. West is running to the left of Mr. Biden, attracting voters who want more aggressive policies to end U.S. involvement in overseas wars, eliminate the use of fossil fuels, provide universal health care and reform policing.
Mr. West, who did not respond to a request for an interview, also backs reparations “for past unjust treatment of Black people,” the elimination of the Electoral College and “democratizing unaccountable monopolies and oligopolies with workers’ control,” according to his campaign website.
He’s supported by former Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein and he recently hired Peter Daou, who previously served as the campaign manager for Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson, to run his campaign.
In a video posted this week on X, Mr. West denounced the two-party system and called his campaign “a moment in a movement.” He asked for donations as the third fundraising quarter draws to a close this month.
Mr. West has denied his campaign is aimed at siphoning Biden voters but he beat the president to the United Auto Workers picket line this week, wielding an “on strike” sign alongside UAW Local 3039 workers in Tappan, New York, on Monday.
“It’s about fighting corporate greed, it’s about defending human dignity and it’s about affirming solidarity,” he said before venturing to the side of the road to wave his sign at oncoming traffic.
Mr. Biden visited a UAW picket line in Michigan on Wednesday, telling workers through a bullhorn, “You deserve the significant raise you need, and other benefits.”
Tim Black, a political commentator from Waldorf, Maryland, whose weekly podcast focuses on issues impacting Black Americans, said he stopped voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the general election when President Obama left office. Mr. Black voted for the Green Party candidates in the last two elections and now enthusiastically backs Mr. West’s campaign.
“My support for Dr. West is based on me knowing his political stances and knowing that he’s anti-war, he’s into ending mass incarceration, environmental justice. A lot of things that I’m interested in,” Mr. Black said.
While Democratic Party officials aren’t panicking about Mr. West, some longtime operatives warn they should start paying closer attention to his third-party campaign or risk a repeat of 2016, when Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew enough support away from Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to give Mr. Trump the edge in several swing states.
The Green Party, Democratic strategist and former Obama adviser David Axelrod said, played an “outsized” role in Mr. Trump’s 2016 victory, although Ms. Stein and others have disputed the claim.
“Now with Cornel West as [their] likely nominee, they could easily do it again,” Mr. Axelrod warned in a post on X. “Risky business.”
The third-party threat to Mr. Biden could be offset, Mr. Faucheux said, “If there is a third-party candidate taking away votes from the right side of the spectrum.”
Mr. Faucheux said current Democratic presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, who campaigns on a mix of liberal and populist policies, could pose a threat to Mr. Trump.
A potentially more significant challenge to both candidates could develop if the bipartisan group No Labels launches a “unity ticket.”
No Labels has gained ballot access in 10 states, most recently in the swing state of Arizona. It is on track to be on the ballot in 28 states by the end of the year.
The group’s polling indicates voters in both parties are yearning for a “moderate independent” party ticket in 2024.
Sen. Joe Manchin III, a West Virginia Democrat who has clashed with the party and Mr. Biden, hasn’t ruled out running and in July headlined a No Labels event in Manchester, New Hampshire, alongside former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican.
Niko House, a West supporter and Miami-based political podcaster who has worked for the presidential campaigns of Ms. Stein and Democrat Sen. Bernard Sanders, said a certain faction of Democratic voters are so frustrated with the party’s nominating system and the Biden administration, that they’ll vote for Mr. West just to thwart another Biden presidency.
Mr. West, he said, could draw support from Democratic voters frustrated with Mrs. Clinton’s 2016 primary win over Mr. Sanders, a socialist, as well as those who now back Mr. Kennedy’s uphill presidential campaign, which has attacked the Biden administration over COVID mandates, Ukraine war funding and efforts to censor social media.
“I believe that he has a shot to garner a larger percentage of votes than any other third-party candidate has in the past,” Mr. House said of Mr. West. “I think that people are just that fed up.”
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.