SEOUL, South Korea — Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Wednesday wrapped up a high-profile three-day China visit, meeting with President Xi Jinping and generating upbeat responses after a period of severe strains in the bilateral relationship.
It was the first official visit to China by the liberal Mr. Albanese, who has taken a less confrontational stance toward Beijing than his predecessor, conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who exited office in 2022.
The relatively smooth visit may set the tone for bigger things ahead — a hoped-for meeting between Mr. Xi and U.S. President Biden at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit next week in San Francisco.
The one-on-one meeting, which would be the first in nearly a year, is widely expected to happen, though China has yet to officially confirm it.
The Albanese visit “will hopefully result in a meeting shortly between President Xi and President Biden,” John Quelch, a former dean of the University of Miami School of Business and an expert on East-West relations, told Chinese broadcaster CGTN Wednesday. “I am very optimistic about the progress made here.”
After years of rising economic and security tensions between Canberra and Beijing, Mr. Albanese’s visit was striking for its more relaxed, jocular character.
Analysts say neither Beijing nor Washington are likely to alter their regional strategies, but both capitals — facing different pressures, amid international crises — have reason to lower the geopolitical temperature in the region.
That means toning down ideology and emphasizing pragmatic ways to cooperate.
“There is a small possibility that China is trying to drive a wedge [between Canberra and Washington], but that is not how I would interpret it,” said Mason Richey, an American international relations expert at Korea’s Hankook University of Foreign Studies. “I think China is trying to downsize risks in its relations with the West.”
Likewise, Australia likely seeks reduced tensions.
“It is in Australia’s interests to help the U.S. avoid getting into a conflict with China,” said Australian Jeffrey Robertson, who teaches regional relations at Seoul’s Yonsei University.
Aussie charm offensive
Mr. Albanese held upbeat meetings with both Mr. Xi and Premier Li Qiang. He charmed China by going for a run on the streets of Shanghai and appeared, beaming, on the front page of Chinese newspapers, one of which dubbed him a “handsome boy.”
“Thanks to the joint efforts of both sides, China and Australia have resumed exchanges in various fields and embarked on the right path of improving relations,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Albanese, China’s state media reported.
There have been gestures by China suggesting that it wants to work with the less hostile new Australian government. Punitive tariffs on some Australian exports have been lifted in recent days, and last month Beijing released a jailed Australian journalist after three years of imprisonment on unclear charges.
Mr. Xi urged both capitals to upgrade their free trade agreement, expand cooperation on climate change and green economics, uphold global free trade, and create sound investment environments.
Mr. Albanese has been emphasizing the economic positives in the bilateral relationship.
“I think there are promising signs,” he said. “We’ve already seen a number of the impediments to trade between our two nations removed.”
Ties degraded under Mr. Morrison, as Australia was pulled into the growing U.S.-China rivalry for allies and markets in East Asia.
Mr. Morrison’s government barred Chinese tech giant Huawei from Australian 5G information networks, criticized Beijing’s human rights record and infuriated Chinese leaders by demanding an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19 after it first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.
A furious Beijing shot back with restrictions on key Australian exports, worth billions of dollars.
“We need to cooperate with China where we can, disagree where we must and engage in our national interest,” Mr. Albanese said ahead of his trip.
It’s not a complete U-turn: The new government is proceeding with the Australia-U.K.-U.S. “AUKUS” partnership negotiated by Mr. Morrison in 2021, which gives Australia nuclear submarine technologies, despite Chinese complaints about the deal.
Though disagreements remain over Canberra’s pro-U.S. posture and Chinese aggressive diplomatic and economic outreach in the South Pacific, some hailed this week’s visit as productive.
“China looks at Prime Minister Albanese as a statesman … who is very pragmatic and very realistic, and we in China are opening our arms,” Victor Gao, a chair professor at Soochow University told CGTN. “China and Australia will always be different, but these two countries are highly complementary.”
How improving Australia-China ties affect the still-stormy U.S.-China relationship is being closely watched in the region.
“I think issues between the U.S. and China are a lot more complicated than between Australia and China, but this is a good litmus test,” Mr. Richey said. “If Albanese and Xi can make progress that is a sign that maybe China wants to put a floor under its relations with the West.”
Australian Joel Atkinson, another scholar at Seoul’s Hankook University of Foreign Studies, said China has been outmaneuvered in the region, but the U.S. also finds its overstretched.
“Biden believes that the way his administration has built up and strengthened relations with India, the Philippines, Australia, Europe, between Korea and Japan, etc., has put Beijing on the strategic back foot,” he said. “At the same time, there is a growing sense that the U.S. has too much on its plate and does not want competition with China to get out of control.”
Groundwork
Mr. Xi skipped September’s Group of 20 meeting in India. Though his attendance at next week’s APEC leaders’ summit remains unconfirmed, the groundwork has been laid, with high-level visits resuming after a long period of radio silence between the two capitals.
Commerce Secretary Gino Raimondo visited China in August. Wang Yi, who heads the CCP’s foreign relations directorate, traveled to Washington in October.
Both Beijing and Washington face pressures at home.
China’s post-COVID growth has slowed, youth unemployment is soaring, and demographic trends suggest declining productivity in the years to come. The domestic property sector is in crisis, while China’s high-tech sector faces increasing barriers from the U.S. and its allies.
Mr. Xi has also purged senior cadres in recent months, including the ministers of both defense and foreign affairs, suggesting his power base at home is not as stable as many thought.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, walks a tightrope dealing with hot conflicts in Ukraine and now Israel, even as its arsenals are stretched to meet China’s challenge in the Indo-Pacific.
Mr. Biden, having established a web of alliances across the region, faces a difficult reelection campaign in 2024. There is concern in Asian capitals about his likely opponent, Republican Donald Trump, who has little love for Washington’s traditional alliances.
More storm clouds loom. A presidential election is slated for January in Taiwan, the democratic island that constantly raises Beijing-Washington tensions.
If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins and Taipei shifts ever further from Beijing, simmering cross-Straits tensions could turn hotter.
Regional U.S. allies — who all count China as their leading trade partner — likely favor a cool-down.
“Both the U.S. and China are aware that tensions have been increasing and this impacts economic relations, so there is a need to set guidelines,” Mr. Robertson said. “I’m sure Australia, Japan and South Korea are pushing China and the U.S. to work out guidelines.”
Still, Mr. Xi, who has overseen China’s expansive policy in recent years, looks unlikely to change his broader direction, and the U.S. has limited leverage to alter China’s policymaking.
“Ultimately, the U.S. is trying for some form of containment of China,” Mr. Richey said. “Both in Congress and in the larger population, there is no ‘Go wobbly on China vote,’ so there are limits to pragmatism.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.