While House Republicans argue over electing a new speaker, their razor-thin majority is slipping away in courtrooms as redistricting lawsuits in a half-dozen states threaten to make it easier for Democrats to win back control in 2024.

A handful of lawsuits challenging congressional district maps could give Democrats an advantage in as many as 10 House races, enough to easily overtake the GOP’s five-seat advantage.

Republicans also are poised to pick up seats thanks to redistricting court battles, particularly in North Carolina. It could make the outcome in all the cases close to a wash for both parties, some analysts say.

But other analysts believe the net gain could end up favoring Democrats under a scenario that would make it harder for the GOP to keep control of the House if court decisions are handed down and implemented in time for the November 2024 election.

The impact on next year’s elections could be significant, said Erin Covey, an analyst at the non-partisan Inside Elections.
 
“Republicans only have a five-seat majority right now, so every single case in all of these states could make a decisive impact on their ability to hold the House next year,” she said. “All of these battles definitely matter.”

Court cases in New York, Florida, Georgia and Louisiana could shave off the GOP’s narrow advantage if the redistricting decisions favor Democrats.

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John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which fights GOP gerrymandering, said up to eight states could enact new congressional maps that would be in place ahead of the 2024 election.

“Given Republicans’ slim five-seat majority, that means redistricting will determine who can win the House majority in 2024,” Mr. Bisognano said.

Many of the court cases involve Democratic challenges to GOP gerrymandering, which is practiced by both parties in a bid to gain political advantage when carving out voting districts.

A three-judge panel in Alabama earlier this month created a district very likely to produce an additional Democratic-leaning congressional seat in 2024, and in New York, Democrats are fighting to redraw competitive district maps that could help them flip up to half a dozen seats. A hearing is set for next month in the state’s court of appeals.

In Georgia, a federal court ruling is expected this fall in a lawsuit challenging GOP-drawn congressional maps that could end up giving Democrats an additional House seat.

Similar legal cases are ongoing in Florida and Louisiana, challenging gerrymandered districts drawn by the GOP.

For Republicans, the redistricting threat to their majority comes as the House GOP flails without a speaker for a third week. The GOP discord is almost certain to reverberate into the 2024 election.

The lack of a speaker has paralyzed the House and prevented consideration of critical legislation to fund the government and provide aid to Israel in its war against the terrorist organization Hamas.

The Democrat’s House campaign arm, in a news release, highlighted “the most extreme, dysfunctional House Republican conference ever,” and promoted their own party’s unity.

The redistricting battle only adds to the threat the party faces in hanging on to control of the House, say Republicans.

“A lot of things could affect the outcome of the House majority,” said former Rep. John Faso, who represented New York’s 19th District from 2017 until 2019.

Mr. Faso and other New York Republicans are fighting efforts by  Democrats to throw out the state’s congressional district map that was drawn by a court-appointed expert ahead of the 2022 election.

The expert’s map made several of the districts far more competitive, and the new lines helped Republicans flip four congressional seats in the state. Those GOP wins ultimately played a pivotal role in Republicans winning a narrow majority in the House that Democrats are eager to reverse.

Dave Wasserman, analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, called the Empire State “the linchpin of Democrats’ bid to retake the House in 2024.”

Democrats say that the 2022 map was intended to be temporary and want to redraw it for 2024.

The state’s highest court will hear the case on Nov.15.

“If we were to lose the case, then that would be an open invitation to the legislature to try to gerrymander the districts again,” Mr. Faso said.

In North Carolina, it’s Republicans who plan to take advantage of favorable redistricting decisions by the courts.

State Republicans last week released a new congressional map for 2024 that would likely flip three to four Democratic seats to the GOP.

The GOP-led legislature was able to draw lines favoring their party following an April decision by the North Carolina Supreme Court that threw out a previous ruling outlawing gerrymandered voting maps.

• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.