ISTANBUL — The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is more than just a bullet point on President Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize checklist: The U.S.-brokered breakthrough has redrawn the diplomatic map of the South Caucasus, displacing Russia and Iran while positioning Washington as the primary mediator.
Signed at the White House by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the deal opens critical transport and trade routes, including the Zangezur corridor, which links Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave to Turkey.
Part of the agreement included granting the U.S. exclusive rights to develop the Zangezur corridor, which the U.S. government has called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, for the next 99 years, aiming to connect the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to the rest of Azerbaijan without checkpoints.
The agreement, forged nearly five years after Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War, reflects the desire of Armenia and Azerbaijan — both once a part of the Soviet Union — to reduce dependence on Moscow and Tehran, while offering new economic, security and geopolitical opportunities for the region.
Both leaders were happy to share the credit with Mr. Trump at a White House ceremony earlier this month, and since then, Mr. Aliyev has been one of the most enthusiastic backers of an international movement to reward the American president with the Nobel Peace Prize he has openly coveted.
“He really deserves it,” the Azerbaijani leader told Al Arabiya in an interview airing this week. “He made a miracle in Africa, in Asia and in the Southern Caucasus. And this is his character, this is his nature. He wants peace.”
But the power shift in Central Asia — away from Russia and Iran and toward Turkey and the U.S. — has its roots in the end of Second Karabakh War in 2020, a conflict that resulted in around 5,000 military casualties and 100,000 displaced Armenians.
Azerbaijan reported about 2,900 military and 100 civilian deaths. With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, the instability in the Southern Caucasus created a sense of urgency for a peace deal brokered by the U.S.
“Since the Second Karabakh War, no international body could break the deadlock,” said Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a senior researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University. “Trump’s move cut through years of stalemate, sidelining Russia and Iran while sparing Armenia from depending on them.”
For Armenia, the agreement is a strategic opportunity to loosen its reliance on Russia.
Armenia’s long-standing dependence on Moscow, particularly for security, is now under intense scrutiny.
Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is a historic shift, signaling that Yerevan is ready to chart a more independent course.
Benyamin Poghosyan, senior research fellow at APRI Armenia, a Yerevan-based think tank, explained, “The deal reduces the risk of military escalation and creates space for Armenia to focus on rebuilding its economy. However, the risk lies in the lack of clarity over transit routes and the security guarantees for Armenian citizens and goods. Until we get clarity on these issues, the agreement remains fragile.”
Mr. Poghosyan emphasized the internal political challenges Armenia faces, noting that the government’s decision to engage with Azerbaijan on the Zangezur corridor has sparked significant opposition from domestic critics.
Many Armenians remain deeply skeptical of any deal with Azerbaijan, given the traumatic loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the lingering distrust between the two nations. “The Armenian public remains deeply divided,” Mr. Poghosyan said. “The opposition views any concession to Azerbaijan as a betrayal, while the government is trying to balance its future security and economic needs.”
But both countries have had turbulent relationships with Moscow in recent years, with Azerbaijan most recently angry about a deadly attack in December on an Azerbaijani passenger airliner that Russian forces fired on after mistaking the plane for a Ukrainian drone — the jet was able to land, but 38 passengers were killed.
Armenia hosts two Russian military bases, though many Armenians wouldn’t mind seeing the Russians evicted — protesters demonstrated outside the base in Gyumri on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is making inroads in Armenia, investing an estimated $2 billion in the country since its independence.
More than 70 U.S.-owned companies, including Silicon Valley-based Synopsys, which employs over 1,000 engineers in Armenia, operate in various sectors such as technology, mining and infrastructure. Armenia is also home to the Teghut copper-molybdenum mine, a major foreign-invested project, reflecting U.S. interests in Armenia’s mining and energy sectors.
In Azerbaijan, U.S. oil giants such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have made major investments in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports Caspian crude to Europe.
Azerbaijan’s importance extends beyond energy: It plays a vital role in NATO logistics, and Washington sees the TRIPP corridor as a way to bypass Russian and Iranian choke points, tightening U.S. economic and strategic ties to the region.
Military cooperation is calibrated to politics. Azerbaijan has received U.S. counter-battery radar, Humvees and trucks, alongside Israeli drones and air defenses. Armenia, restricted by Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, receives U.S. radar, communications and surveillance systems, and participates in U.N. and NATO peacekeeping missions.
For Turkey, the deal is both a diplomatic win and an economic opportunity. Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity could pave the way for the reopening of their long-sealed border. Analysts believe this could make Turkish ports key gateways for Armenian trade. The Zangezur corridor also gives Turkey deeper influence in Azerbaijan and expands its reach to Central Asia.
“Turkey played a significant role, but it was the U.S. that ultimately broke the deadlock,” said Mensur Akgün, Istanbul Kültür University. “With sustained U.S. commitment, Turkey can help ensure the corridor’s long-term viability.”
While Turkey deepens its economic and security ties with Azerbaijan, its relations with Armenia and the West test its ability to balance competing interests. With the U.S. as the mediator, Turkey is finding itself in a stronger position to manage its growing influence in the region.
Azerbaijan remains a trusted partner for both Turkey and Israel, even as tensions between Ankara and Jerusalem persist over Gaza and Syria. “Azerbaijan is Turkey’s sister state and Israel’s trusted partner,” Mr. Cohen Yanarocak noted. “That gives Baku the credibility to calm tensions if Ankara and Jerusalem clash — in Syria, Gaza, or the Eastern Mediterranean.”
For Baku, the TRIPP corridor is as much about energy as it is about geopolitics. By connecting Caspian oil and gas to Europe, the corridor provides an alternative to Russian-controlled routes, reducing Europe’s dependence on Moscow.
Rauf Mammadov, an energy and strategic consultant and former state oil company official, emphasized that the U.S. seeks “to extend its influence without a military presence. The economic and strategic ramifications are huge — this is an opportunity to counterbalance Russia’s declining influence.”
Tehran views the TRIPP corridor as a direct challenge to its regional dominance. “Iran is highly sensitive to any U.S. presence along its borders,” Mr. Akgün said. “It will likely try to sway Armenian public opinion and use its leverage with Russia to secure its own interests.”
Moscow, caught off-guard by U.S. and Turkish momentum, remains wary. “Russia is struggling to maintain its traditional influence as the U.S. pushes into the region,” Mr. Mammadov said.
The deal still requires further legal and political steps, but if implemented smoothly, it could reshape trade, energy, and alliances across Eurasia.
“The U.S. now has a chance to solidify its presence in the South Caucasus,” Mr. Mammadov said. “If it can keep the corridor secure for all parties, the benefits will be tremendous.”