Syria and Israel are tantalizingly close to an agreement that could create a stable border region between the two nations, but domestic concerns have stalled the deal’s finalization.
The agreement, nicknamed the “Sweida roadmap,” is expected to include provisions of a buffer zone in southern Syria, establishing Syria and Israel’s borders to the 1974 disengagement agreement and robust protection for Druze in the region.
The two sides have already held several rounds of U.S.-mediated talks the past five months in London, Paris and Baku, Azerbaijan, and appear close to a deal.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa was expected to announce the deal’s finalization last month at the U.N. General Assembly. However, reports indicate a late demand by Israeli negotiators to open a “humanitarian corridor” into Syria’s Sweida province crushed plans to finalize the pact.
Some say the demand likely springs from Israel’s domestic concerns as its government looks to finalize the agreement while appeasing Druze minority members within its own borders.
“I think it’s unrealistic and not a feasible option, mainly because of the distance. It’s about 100 kilometers, about 25 miles, and it crosses through the Daraa province, which is predominantly Sunni, and that means anyone who’s transporting this aid will be targeted,” Ahmad Sharawi, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said. “I think it’s domestic posturing from the Israelis; it might be to appease the local Druze community there.”
Israel has made it clear it will protect the Druze in Syria at all costs. In July, after fighting broke out among government forces, Bedouin tribes and Druze militia in Sweida province, Israel attacked Syrian security forces and government buildings in Damascus.
The Druze are a religious minority that mostly resides in southern Syria and parts of Lebanon. However, over 100,000 Druze members live in Israel and many serve in its armed forces and government.
Druze and anti-Islamist leaders in Israel doubt that Mr. al-Sharaa, who was a leader in the al-Qaida-affiliated Al-Nusra Front during the Syrian Civil War, has abandoned his radical beliefs. Reports indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz believe Mr. al-Sharaa may still harbor Jihadist tendencies.
Mr. Sharawi said the trauma of the Oct. 7, 2023, terror raid, with Hamas terrorists killing over 1,200 Israelis and taking more than 200 hostages, may leave Israeli leaders wearier of accepting Mr. al-Sharaa’s leadership in Syria.
“This example will remain in the Israeli psyche in the future, and appeasing someone like Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had a jihadist background, might not be a good idea, because we don’t know what might happen in the next 10 years,” Mr. Sharawi said.
Syria’s domestic divisions also complicate the talks. Before the regime of Bashar Assad fell last December, most Syrians saw Iran as the greatest threat to their country. But recent polling suggests that Israel’s actions in Gaza and Iran and its occupation of the Golan Heights after the fall of the Assad regime have polarized Syrians against Israel.
Yet some experts say the Syrian government is pragmatic and prepared to make a deal with Israel, no matter what the population thinks.
“The deal that has been on the table for the last several weeks has already been accepted on the Syrian side. It has already been accepted on the American side,” Charles Lister, director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute, said. “Popular opinion on Israel is not great, but the government has made it very clear that it wants to make this deal, that it has accepted a number of concessions that would have been seen as concessions by the Syrian population in order to agree to that deal.”
Still, even if the deal is finalized, it could be a long time before Syria is ready to formally recognize Israel or join the Abraham Accords. In speaking with U.S. officials last month, Mr. al-Sharaa insisted that Syria is in a different position than the other Arab signatories of the accords because Israel is occupying Syrian land.
Still, Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights might not affect Syria’s desire to finalize an agreement.
“The ball is in Israel’s court. Does it decide to sign a deal and walk along that path and see where it goes, or does it make the decision to keep Syria divided, weak and unstable?” Mr. Lister said. “We still don’t have a clear answer on that. Clearly, the Trump administration is pushing Israel to take the former path. We just haven’t seen them bite and sign on the dotted line yet.”
• Vaughn Cockayne can be reached at vcockayne@washingtontimes.com.