America’s current approach to strategic deterrence is not enough to protect the country from growing nuclear threats posed by China, Russia and North Korea and multiple warheads should be rapidly added to current missiles, according to a think tank report.

The report by two strategic nuclear specialists said the U.S. multibillion-dollar nuclear force modernization is not taking place fast enough to mitigate dangers posed by China and Russia.

Both nations have rapidly built up their nuclear forces while the United States remains limited in its number of deployed warheads by the New START arms treaty that Russia violated and then abandoned in 2020, the report said.

Moreover, the emerging entente between China and Russia, a new alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang, and Russo-Iranian-North Korean cooperation in the war in Ukraine has increased the potential for a new world war.

With U.S. nuclear forces aging, the United States’ ability to maintain nuclear deterrence “has drastically declined due to the combination of deep U.S. nuclear weapons reductions and the expansion of opponents’ nuclear and other military forces,” the report said.

The report, “Tailored Deterrence and Low-Cost Nuclear Weapons Upload,” was published by the National Institute Press. It was written by Mark B. Schneider, a former Pentagon nuclear strategist, and strategic weapons expert Keith B. Payne. Both are with the National Institute for Public Policy.

The report calls for adding multiple warheads to 400 land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles and to the Navy’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

The warhead uploading would need to be conducted by ending U.S. observance of the New START treaty that limits deployed warheads to 1,550. The treaty is set to expire in February.

“This is a near-term option to redress the looming nuclear imbalance and threats to deterrence,” the report said. “It likely is impossible, for example, to hold at risk the increasingly large number of Chinese and Russian deterrence-related assets, including nuclear weapons and facilities, with a New START Treaty-limited force.”

“At this point, nuclear upload is likely the only way America can adequately enhance the force size and flexibility needed to tailor deterrence in the near term for the prevention of great power conflict, including major aggression against U.S. allies,” the report said.

Without adding the warheads now in storage, the United States will only be capable of gaining half the potential benefit in added warheads produced under the planned modernization program.

Uploading warheads to existing missiles is “urgent” considering the threat of potential opportunistic or coordinated Russian, Chinese and North Korean aggression.

Currently, the United States likely is unable to fully threaten nuclear strikes on Russian and Chinese targets. A rapid addition of warheads to current missiles would add about 2,200 warheads to the current estimated deployed U.S. arsenal of 1,660, the report said.

Trident missiles on submarines could be uploaded with added warheads in months and the Minuteman III force could be uploaded in three to four years, the report said.

“Nuclear force upload is an advantageous and timely option for deterrence purposes. It is a particularly important option to sustain deterrence in the near term,” the report said.

Trident submarine missile uploading would increase the current force from about 960 warheads to 1,626. Minuteman III uploading would bring the number of warheads from 400 to about 1,000.

“Additionally, there will be several hundred bomber weapons which could be somewhat increased via uploading,” the report said.

Costs of adding the warheads would be relatively modest and limited to transportation and warhead installation, estimated to be about $100 million over several years.

“At this point, nuclear upload is likely the only way America can adequately enhance the force size and flexibility needed to tailor deterrence in the near term for the prevention of great power conflict, including major aggression against U.S. allies,” the report said.

• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.