The toxic cocktail of terrorism and political instability sweeping across Africa is reaching a new peak. And hope that the tide can be turned is hitting a new low.

Analysts say that the U.S. and its partners are rapidly running out of viable options to stop what’s been described as a raging wildfire of Islamic extremism moving through Africa’s Sahel region and elsewhere on the continent. A rash of recent military coups that have upended already weak central governments in the region, such as the recent upheaval in Niger, have made a dysfunctional situation even worse. 

Adding to the powder keg, Western forces are cutting back even as foreign actors such as Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary army expand their reach in the region. One of their stated aims is to help government forces contain the terrorist outfits operating with near impunity in some areas, but those Wagner fighters reportedly have targeted civilian noncombatants with their raids and in some cases even used kidnapping and torture as tools of the trade. Such brutal actions deepen local resentment toward governments and their hired-gun Russian partners, fueling more political instability, which then creates an even bigger power vacuum that Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates rush in to exploit.

With that vicious cycle now seeming to spiral out of control and the potential that terror movements on the continent may soon have a base to launch operations farther afield, specialists are sounding the alarm. Things are bad now and on course to get much worse in the near future.

“There’s little cause for optimism that the tide is going to turn against al-Shabab or al-Qaida or the Islamic State groups that are in both the Sahel and in West Africa,” said Katherine Zimmerman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who closely tracks extremist groups across Africa, the Middle East and beyond.

“What’s readily apparent is that the presence of these groups is interacting with the local conditions, particularly the local insurgencies, the weak governance, and the few resources that most governments have on hand to improve the daily lives of their citizens,” she said in an interview. “Add on top of that the cost to try and counter these groups [and] it’s an almost insurmountable challenge in the region.” 

Downward spiral

Africa’s Sahel region, which includes parts of Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and other nations, has become one of the world’s most fertile breeding grounds for ISIS, al-Qaida, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and other extremist groups. In 2022, the region accounted for 43% of the 6,701 global deaths from terrorism, up from just 1% in 2007, according to the most recent Global Terrorism Index, produced annually by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP).

That massive increase means that more people died from terrorism in the Sahel than in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined last year, the think tank said, with Burkina Faso and Mali topping the list as the most deadly sites for terrorist violence.

But Niger also is becoming more dangerous, despite the presence of more than 1,000 U.S. troops based at two key drone bases in the country. In July, a military mutiny ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, though the Biden administration so far has not formally labeled the situation a “coup.”

Part of the reason that regional governments continue to fall, Ms. Zimmerman said, is that they keep falling into a “security trap.”

“Which is the idea that if they’re able to combat these [terrorist] groups using security forces … increasing raids on insurgent positions, that will somehow deliver the stability they’re looking for. And it has not,” she said.

Until recently, Niger had been one of the continent’s few bona fide democracies. In April 2021, the country marked its first peaceful transfer of power from former President Mahamadou Issoufou to Mr. Bazoum. That period of democracy was the first such era in Niger’s history, which had been marked by military rule and numerous coups over the past several decades.

The country has now joined other regional players that have seen major, unexpected political upheaval. There have been at least six coup attempts in Sahel nations over just the past four years, with four of them having succeeded. Mali, for example, has had two separate military coups this decade alone.

Ironically, some of those coup leaders appear to have had some U.S. military training, fueling criticism that America’s security-focused approach to the Middle East and Africa ultimately creates as many problems as it solves.

In Niger, the coup has already had a direct impact on security. Troops from France, the former colonial power that has long led the counterterrorism mission in the region, are now withdrawing and will be gone by the end of the year. French President Emmanuel Macron even ordered France’s ambassador to Niger to come home immediately.

“We are ending our military cooperation with the de facto authorities in Niger, because they no longer want to fight terrorism,” Mr. Macron said in an interview Sunday on French television. France would continue to offer military support to African governments fighting terror groups, he added, “but we only do it if it is at the request of democratically elected authorities and regional authorities.”

The presence of American forces in the country, and the U.S. ability to launch drone strikes, could provide some sense of stability. But there are fears that Niger will join Burkina Faso and Mali in offering relatively free rein for terrorist groups.

“There are now vast spaces in … Mali and Burkina Faso that can serve as the type of safe havens where terrorists have the time and space to plot more ambitious attacks,” Joshua Meservey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told a House hearing on Wednesday, even if those groups pose a very “limited” direct threat to the U.S. homeland right now.

Converging factors

Greatly complicating any U.S. response is the increasing footprint of adversaries on the continent. China, for example, established its first foreign military outpost in Djibouti on the eastern African coast. The U.S. has its own military presence nearby in Somalia, home to the al-Shabab terror network.

Those U.S. and China outposts are far from the Sahel region. But Beijing clearly has interests all across Africa and has made massive investments around the continent as part of its Belt and Road initiative.

Those efforts, along with China’s interest in the vast energy resources and mineral deposits in Africa, clearly represent a long-term challenge the U.S. must confront.

But the more immediate issue, particularly in the Sahel, stems from Russia’s Wagner Group and the role it is playing in the chaos. Even with the group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, now dead after a public clash with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the summer, Wagner forces still play a major role — both militarily and economically — across the Sahel.

And U.S. lawmakers say there are major geopolitical repercussions. Earlier this month, for example, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso signed a security pact promising to aid the others in the event of an internal rebellion or outside attack.

Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that pact is giving more power to the Wagner Group, which has helped prop up the military-run government in Mali and has offered to do the same in Niger.

“Now, after a military junta seized control from the democratically elected and pro-U.S. president, Niger has joined a security partnership with two other African countries governed by military rulers who took power in coups – including Mali, which is backed by Russian-controlled mercenaries,” the Texas Republican said in a statement earlier this month. “The Biden administration can no longer sit on the sidelines as one African country after another falls to military coups, Russian and Chinese malign influence, and an explosion of terrorist activities. We urgently need to articulate and implement a clear strategy that reverses these trends, starting with the long-overdue recognition that the Sahel is the new global epicenter of jihadist violence that poses a grave threat to America and our allies.”

The impact of Wagner mercenaries on the broader security picture cannot be understated. Witnesses at Wednesday’s House hearing cited data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project showing that 60% of the Wagner Group’s military engagements in Mali targeted civilian non-combatants. Such incidents seem to drive up local support for extremist groups who cast central governments and their foreign allies, such as Wagner, as a danger to innocent life.

For its part, the Biden administration clearly recognizes the scope of the problem. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Africa this week and spoke bluntly about the threats facing the continent.

“Far too many Africans still face persistent threats from violent extremist organizations,” he said during a speech in Angola on Wednesday. “Terrorist groups like al Shabab and ISIS deliberately target innocent civilians and wreak havoc on communities across the continent, and their cruelty propels waves of suffering and instability that spill across borders.”

Mr. Austin also seemingly referenced foreign actions in Africa by Russia and China, saying that “other countries may see African countries as proxies or even pawns.”

“But we see African nations as partners,” he said. “The Biden administration believes that the future is being written today in Africa. And we want to move forward together, through growing partnerships rooted in mutual cooperation and mutual respect.”

• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.