SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Wednesday finally informed its public of the Dec. 3 martial law fiasco in South Korea, but remains silent on its own forces’ inertia in Russia.
Pyongyang’s state news characterized the autocoup attempt in Seoul last week as “insane.” However, troops it has deployed to the war-torn Kursk oblast remain on the sidelines of combat, even as Moscow looks set to upgrade its ally’s feeble air force with modern jet fighters.
Elsewhere, Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, a rare friend to Kim Jong-un regime’s on the international stage, has imploded, likely fortifying the North Korean leader’s determination to upgrade his country’s nuclear deterrent.
On Dec. 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, sparking astonishment, fury and protest. Defying police and troops, lawmakers gathered to vote down the declaration three hours after its issuance.
After eight days of silence, Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency on Wednesday reported the fiasco. The state media’s tardiness is likely due to circumspection and a desire to see events continue on their course.
“They want to see how it plays out and assess what it means,” said Jenny Town, who directs North Korean specialist media 38 North. “And this trend is going to be favorable to them, so it is not in North Korea’s interests to do much.”
The KCNA stated that Mr. Yoon’s, “insane act, reminiscent of the coup during the military dictatorship decades ago, has drawn strong condemnation from all walks of life, including the opposition party, and further exploded the public’s fervor for impeachment.”
Unlike some opinions Pyongyang airs, Wednesday’s report cleaves closely to facts and opinions in the South.
“Insane” is a word a South Korean protester used to characterize Mr. Yoon’s actions last week. Global and South Korean media have condemned it and compared it to Seoul’s past, authoritarian practices.
One theory behind Mr. Yoon’s gambit is that it aimed to shutter the National Assembly, forestalling a creeping impeachment. In fact, it accelerated it.
An impeachment motion last Saturday failed after Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party boycotted the vote, but another vote will take place this Saturday. Indications are it will pass.
Wednesday in Seoul, Mr. Yoon’s key co-plotter, ex-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun failed in an apparent suicide attempt in detention.
The disgraced Mr. Yoon is closeted at his presidential compound, which on Wednesday saw a standoff between security guards and police who attempted to raid it to secure evidence.
Impeachment — a constitutionally recognized process — would end current political uncertainties. A successful bid would likely be welcomed in Pyongyang, as Mr. Yoon has taken a hard line on North Korea.
A rise to power for opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, conversely, would be “very favorable” for Pyongyang, said Yang Uk, a defense specialist with Seoul think tank the Asan Institute.
While Pyongyang’s preferences for Seoul’s future leadership are clear, the role of its troops in Kursk, where an estimated 10,000 to 13,000 have massed, is not.
The force is substantial in a warzone where Russian forces are estimated at 50,000 and Ukrainians at 20,000 to 30,000. They have not, however, engaged in major operations, according to Ukrainian sources on Dec. 4, confirmed by the Pentagon on Monday.
Kyiv said the troops are training and conducting rear-area tasks; the Pentagon said they are “staged for combat.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken vaguely of North Korean casualties, and Asian troops have been seen fighting. However, their identities remain unconfirmed: They could be Siberians or Buryats.
Only one North Korean armored vehicle has so far been destroyed: Ukrainian drone operators took out a Bulsae-4 anti-tank rocket system last week.
Mr. Yang speculated that small North Korean units are undergoing combat inoculation, while their main force is withheld for a major operation.
“I’d guess some are being given a test, and giving an example of what North Koreans can do,” he said. “I think the Russians are going to use the North Koreans as decisive reinforcements, and that means a decisive operation did not start yet.”
Russia’s naval infantry and airborne brigades have been degraded and reformed in nearly three years of intense battle. North Koreans, citizens of a hardline fortress state, are inexperienced, but fresh and cohesive.
Cohesion is prized in war and Mr. Yang, citing intelligence that North Koreans are undertaking crash courses at Russian artillery schools, said they may want to use their own gunnery. That would obviate communication/liaison problems with Russians.
“I don’t think the North Korean commanders want to break their forces up: They want to take charge and have full control, even in a limited area of operations,” he said. “They’ve sent some artillery to Russia and might be awaiting their own fire support.”
According to U.S. Indo-Pacific Commanding Adm. Samuel Paparo, speaking on Dec. 7, Russia is sending unspecified numbers of MIG-29 and SU-27 fighters in part payment for Pyongyang’s aid. Though fourth-generation jets, they are “formidable,” he said.
Mr. Kim’s ground and nuclear forces are powerful; its air force is small and fuel-starved. But expectations that the new airframes could enable Pyongyang to join joint Beijing-Moscow air patrols in Northeast Asia are far distant, said Ms. Town.
“To move to that level very quickly would be rather ambitious,” she said. “These are the first new planes North Korea has gotten in decades.”
Elsewhere, Mr. Kim has lost a global partner: Mr. Assad, who has fled to Russia.
Pyongyang is believed to have supplied nuclear technologies, and even special forces, to Damascus. However, Mr. Yang reckons any loss to North Korea is minimal.
”That was a desperate approach to be friends with Assad,” he said. “Now they are friends with Russia, they could care less.”
Pundits believe Russia is providing North Korea diplomatic cover while extending economic and arms pipelines, reducing its decades-long dependence on China.
Ms. Town suggested the Assad regime’s collapse offers the Kim regime further incentives to upgrade its nuclear programs, thereby staving off potential regime-change forces.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.