It was an idea ahead of its time and one that’s paying geopolitical dividends in America’s growing Cold War with China.

Saturday marks a year since Shinzo Abe, the late Japanese prime minister, was killed by an assassin’s bullet, an attack that shocked the nation. But the anniversary is also sparking reflections and a realization that Abe’s legacy is likely to endure in a country that doesn’t typically offer its political leaders a high profile or lasting fame.

It was Shinzo Abe who in 2007 became the first major leader to formally propose the so-called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a loose alliance comprising the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, the region’s major democratic powers. Sixteen years later, the “Quad” has become a tip of the global spear in the multinational effort to confront China’s rising economic power and military expansion and protect free markets and open trade routes in East Asia.

But analysts say the Quad — and the new security clout Japan now wields — carry just as much weight domestically in Japan and helped cement Abe’s legacy as a leader who helped bring Japan back to the forefront of international politics. It’s also proof, they argue, that the two-time Japanese prime minister was far ahead of the curve in recognizing just how formidable China’s communist regime would become in the 21st century.

“He saw the writing on the wall in regards to China,” said Brian Harding, senior expert for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “But in addition to doubling down on the U.S.-Japan alliance and making key reforms, … he also really prioritized Southeast Asia and India and Australia. There’s a line to be drawn between Abe and the increasing centrality of the Quad.”

“Certainly I think you could say that Abe saw the direction China was heading before a lot of others did,” Mr. Harding said in an interview. “Maybe he was smarter. Maybe he was lucky.”
Abe’s shocking death last July marked the final chapter in a remarkable, influential political career that brought about a sea change in Japan’s domestic politics and its national security posture, while also helping to resurrect Tokyo as a significant power player on the world stage.

But his death has sparked its own political controversy inside Japan. The gunman who shot Abe — the longest serving prime minister in postwar Japanese history — said he acted out of personal grievance. He said his family’s fortunes were ruined because his mother made large monetary donations to the Unification Church, which has worked with the conservative Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party, in the early 2000s. And he reportedly targeted the former prime minister for having appeared at Unification Church events in Japan.

Church leaders have cooperated with the investigation and said they moved to reform donation and solicitation practices more than a decade ago. But the government of current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been under pressure to do much more. Mr. Kishida reportedly apologized last August for his party’s ties with the church and has ordered government investigations into its ties to Japanese lawmakers.

Game-changer

Regional specialists point to Abe’s staying power in Japanese politics as a game-changer for the country, breaking the pattern of short-lived and mostly forgettable governments. After a short stint in power from 2006 to 2007, Abe became prime minister again in December 2012, serving until 2020. He followed five prime ministers who each served only one one year.

While such short terms were par for the course in Japanese politics, analysts said Abe’s eight-year reign gave the nation the kind of stability it needed to reimagine its role in the Pacific and beyond.

“Japan was underperforming in terms of its strategic weight in the region because of the political tumult in Tokyo,” Mr. Harding said. “One of the main reasons Japanese foreign policy transformed and Japan’s strategic weight and influence transformed is because of the political stability that Prime Minister Abe oversaw.”

“Japan was able to look outward in a way it couldn’t if you had [a different prime minister] every year,” he said.

Abe’s LDP has been in power for most of the past three decades, with a key exception of 2009 to 2012, when analysts say questions began to swirl in Washington about the long-term future of the two nations’ alliance, particularly when it came to security issues.

Specialists say that not only did Abe change that equation and reinvigorate the U.S.-Japan alliance, he also helped write the blueprint for a multilateral strategy to confront China.

“He was not ahead in ‘recognizing’ the ‘competition’ posed by Beijing — he was, in fact, out front in creating that competition,” said Frederick R. Dickinson, professor of Japanese history and director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Pennsylvania.

The subsequent years saw the U.S.-Japan alliance deepen, with Abe and his party able to preserve Japan’s closeness to Washington through the Obama and Trump administrations. What’s more, Abe’s policies helped lay the groundwork for a major announcement late last year that Japan would make major new investments in its own security and that of the Pacific region.

Pentagon officials welcomed the trilogy of documents — the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program — that represented a major shift in Tokyo’s strategic thinking with respect to its national defense.

Among other things, the documents called for major new counterstrike capabilities and set a goal of Japan spending at least 2% of its annual GDP on defense by 2027.

The importance of those documents can’t be overstated, analysts say. Not only will Japan’s new defense outlook contribute greatly to Pacific security, Abe’s forward thinking also has influenced the next generation of Japanese citizens to view their nation as a legitimate actor on the world stage, complete with significant military capabilities.

Mr. Kishida, the current prime minister, has largely followed the template laid out by Abe, but the late prime minister’s legacy can be measure in part by the difficulty his own personal faction in the Liberal Democratic party has had in finding a clear successor.

Members of the 100-member LDP faction that once backed Abe in the Diet recently announced they were adopting a “group leadership” structure after having failed to designate a new leader.

“Experts say cracks in the faction that were already visible before Abe’s death could deepen under the new structure, making it much less powerful than its size would indicate, and possibly result in disgruntled members breaking away,” the Japan Times reported this week.

But it is likely to be foreign policy and Japan’s new prominence as a security player in the region and the world that will be Abe’s most lasting achievements.

“Unsurprisingly, this new confrontational Asia-Pacific turned out to be the most efficacious formula for Abe’s most fundamental domestic political aim,” Mr. Dickinson said. “Given the heightened geopolitical tensions, Japanese youth who’ve come of age over the last 10 to 15 years are much more likely than their parents to support Japan’s conservative establishment and a strong Japanese defense posture.”

— David R. Sands contributed to this report.

• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.