BANGKOK, Thailand — Thai voters have seen this movie before, and are hoping the latest sequel doesn’t end the same way as the previous installments.
A dynastic daughter of the billionaire Shinawatra family leads opinion polls to become prime minister of this longtime U.S. ally in Sunday’s nationwide elections. But many here fear the result could reignite her family’s longstanding feud with the coup-empowered, politicized, U.S.-trained military that has long meddled in the country’s electoral system.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai — “For Thais” — Party’s surging popularity sparked warnings by Thai media, politicians, academics and others that the military may ignore the majority will or launch yet another coup against a member of the extended Shinawatra clan. Ms. Paetongtarn is the youngest daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular but divisive former prime minister who was ousted by a military coup in 2006. She’s also the niece of Yingluck Shinawatra, another prime minister whose government met a similar fate eight years later.
Ms. Paetongtarn, 36 and politically inexperienced, promises to give every Thai adult $10,000, and make recreational cannabis illegal again. And she is entering the home stretch of the campaign just two weeks after giving birth to a baby boy on May 1, something she insists will not hinder her ability to lead an effective government.
“I believe good things come along with children,” she told reporters in Bangkok two days after the delivery, sitting beside her husband, Pidok Sooksawas, at a hospital news conference. “I believe that children are my secret power to work, and to lead everyday life.
The stakes are high for Thailand and for the region, with China making a serious play for influence in a challenge to Bangkok’s traditional close ties to the U.S. International and local investors, businesses, and others hope a stable, elected civilian government will repair Thailand’s crippled democracy and replace unqualified military appointees in government ministries.
If the polls are right, the result could spell the end of the dominance of the national political scene by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. The former army chief effectively seized power nearly a decade ago and then rewrote the constitution and the electoral system in a bid to ensure his grip on power. But Mr. Prayuth and his recently created, tiny United Thai Nation (UTN) party are trailing badly in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s vote and he is likely not the military establishment’s preferred candidate.
But the central theme of the campaign has been the possible revival of the long, treacherous political blood feud between the controversial Shinawatra clan and the military. The family’s dynastic grip over a large swath of mostly working-class and poor voters worries many Thais, not just the military.
Thaksin Shinawatra on Tuesday again made explicit what many of his opponents fear — writing on Twitter he hopes to return to Thailand after 17 years in exile if his daughter wins the vote. He said on Twitter he was prepared to face the legal charges against him for a chance to see his grandchildren.
“Please excuse me. It’s been nearly 17 years that I have to be away from my family. I’m already old,” he tweeted.
For several years, Mr. Prayuth ruled at the head of a junta of generals, banning political activity, arresting civilian opponents, and taking other harsh measures before moderating somewhat after winning a 2019 general election.
“There should be no coup again,” he recently told reporters. “If any serious conflict occurs again, I don’t know how to solve it, because I have nothing to do with it now.”
Analyst Andrew Nachemson, writing in Foreign Policy.com, summed up the dilemma for Thai voters, noting, “A too-resounding victory for Pheu Yhai will threaten Thailand’s conservative establishment, made up of both military leaders and monarchists, and raise the risk of another coup.”
Constitutional challenges
The new constitution Mr. Prayuth pushed through in 2017 presents another complication for Ms. Paetongtarn’s path to power. Voters choose candidates to fill Parliament’s 500-member House of Representatives, but the government controls appointments to the 250-seat Senate. The 750 legislators then vote together on a new government, giving the military and its allies a strong base of support before the first ballot is even cast.
The Constitution Court may also dissolve any party found guilty of committing an election infraction, engaging in conflict of interest, or other illegalities before, during, or after the election — even if a new civilian government takes office.
“I would expect that the Constitutional Court might find an excuse to force Thaksin’s daughter out of office before any military coup might occur,” said Paul Chambers, a social science lecturer and specialist about Thai politics at Naresuan University’s Southeast Asia center. Protest over a “judicial coup” could give the military the excuse to intervene once again, Mr. Chambers said in an interview.
Fears of a coup increase exponentially if a victorious Ms. Paetongtarn allows her convicted father and his sister to return from abroad. Both left the country after losing power, faced with legal action and possible jail time over alleged fraud and corruption while in office. Both contend the charges and convictions were politically motivated.
Allowing the controversial Shinawatra siblings to return could spark new unrest here, analysts warn, especially in the case of the populist Thaksin Shinawatra — clashes between supporters and opponents of the 73-year-old populist billionaire, a former police official and telecommunications tycoon first elected prime minister in 2001, have killed hundreds in Bangkok’s streets in recent years.
Many perceive Ms. Paetongtarn as a placeholder for her father who, after fleeing Thailand, still inspires supporters with online messages of defiance.
Critics accuse the Shinawatras, especially Mr. Thaksin, of attempting to loot and destroy the country whenever they govern. Supporters point to Mr. Thaksin’s program to help the poor, including public health care, expanded credit, scholarships and other populist policies funded by taxes.
Thailand’s multi-party system adds another level of complexity to the political equation, with no party likely to claim an outright governing majority and multiple post-election coalitions possible.
Those who favor an even more thorough challenge to the military’s political power have been flocking to the smaller, more liberal Move Forward Party (MFP) and its outspoken leader Pita Limjaroenrat. The MFP, a successor to a party that was dissolved by the government in 2020, has a strong following among younger voters with a platform of “decentralizing the country, de-monopolizing the country and demilitarizing the country.”
Mr. Pita’s swelling popularity is based partly on his stance which “ruled out any partnership with the military, thus enabling his party to get the nod from many undecided voters,” Bangkok Post columnist and assistant news editor Chairith Yongpiam wrote earlier this month. His party is vying with the Bhum Jai Thai — “Thai Pride” — Party of former health minister Anutin Charnvirakul, best known in Thailand and the West for pushing the legalization and commercialization of the country’s recreational marijuana industry.
For his part, Mr. Anutin offered to join any coalition — military or civilian — that will keep marijuana legal for adults, while Ms. Paetongtarn says cannabis should again be made illegal except for medical purposes and dispensed only through selected clinics.
Ms. Paetongtarn’s vow to reverse Mr. Anutin’s cannabis liberalization, which enabled recreational use, evokes memories of her father’s notorious violent anti-drug campaign in 2003. Mr. Thaksin’s harsh policies have been linked to allegations of extrajudicial killings of more than 2,500 suspected illegal dealers and suspected drug abusers.
Critics say Ms. Paetongtarn’s stance against recreational marijuana would devastate Thailand’s rapidly expanding public cannabis retail market.
Prayuth’s struggles
Mr. Prayuth’s lackluster showing is one of the election’s more striking developments. Many former supporters say they are weary of his mercurial leadership and public tantrums against Thailand’s media — he once joked “we’ll probably just execute” journalists and once threw a banana peel at Thai reporters.
He is also hobbled by a political expiration date: The Constitutional Court recently ruled Mr. Prayuth, who has held power since 2014, is term-limited to just two more years in office.
Ex-army chief Prawit Wongsuwan, Mr. Prayuth’s deputy prime minister from 2008 to 2011, has stepped in as the military’s most viable candidate in the May 14 vote. Breaking away from Mr. Prayuth’s party, Mr. Prawit set up a small Palang Pracha Rath Party (PPRP), although after the election, Mr. Prawit and Mr. Prayuth may combine their House support with other small pro-military parties, plus the Senate’s 250 appointees.
A military-dominated “minority government” could be possible, although many say such a result could spark new public protests.
Still, the new electoral system effectively requires Ms. Paetongtarn’s party to win or assemble an “extreme majority” of 376 seats in the 500-seat House to offset the military’s bloc in the Senate, Mr. Chambers said. In the 2019 vote, the then-new Pheu Thai party captured 136 votes, but Mr. Prayuth relied on a compliant Senate to easily win the vote for prime minister.
Younger voters could play an outsized role in the outcome, with many ready to move past the military government but unhappy with Ms. Paetongtarn’s anti-cannabis stance.
“I will vote Pheu Thai, not because I like Thaksin, but just to change this government,” said one exasperated transportation worker. “During the past eight years, prices of food, and gasoline, and everything has increased too much.
Ms. Paetongtarn herself has been coy about her plans for his father if elected, telling one recent rally, “I am my dad’s daughter, always and forever, but I make my own decisions.”
• This story is based in part on wire service reports.