Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a lot to do on a good day, but he’s especially busy at the moment. The top two items on his list have been getting the Biden administration to lift restrictions on Kyiv’s use of U.S.-supplied weapons and preparing for a peace summit in Switzerland later this month.
The first was by far the most urgent. The Russian army has spent the year thus far pounding Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-most populous city after the capital, and unleashed a new front in the war last month by sending thousands of Russian troops across the border into northern Kharkiv. Several small villages and towns were captured by the Russians after Ukrainian forces, unable to construct fortified defensive lines due to incessant Russian bombing, were forced to retreat.
The Russian offensive was made easier by the fact that its troops were able to assemble on the other side of the Russia-Ukraine border relatively unscathed. Zelensky and the Ukrainian military command argued that Moscow was taking advantage of Washington’s “don’t strike in Russia” policy, in which Ukrainians were prohibited from using U.S. weapons against Russian targets inside Russia.
The argument was apparently convincing. After extensive interagency debate, President Joe Biden reversed his previous ban. Ukrainian troops are now permitted to strike Russian military targets across the border if it serves the defense of Kharkiv. This will come as a welcome relief to Zelensky, who will no doubt take Biden’s latest policy reversal as vindication of his ability to persuade audiences in the West. Biden’s decision will also likely give Zelensky hope that, since a precedent has now been set, the Biden administration may come around to broadening the target set to Russian airfields, logistics nodes, and weapons manufacturing facilities deeper in the Russian heartland.
The second item on the checklist, organizing a peace summit, is proving to be a bit more complicated for the Ukrainian president. Granted, the summit, scheduled for June 15 and 16 in Switzerland, will garner a significant amount of attention. Dozens of countries will participate in the event, and the summit itself will give Ukraine renewed confidence that its partners in the West support its war aims.
Indeed, the outcome is predictable: After two days of speeches, a joint statement will likely be issued reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, denouncing Russia for violating the most sacred principle in international relations, respect for state borders, and reiterating that the onus is on President Vladimir Putin to withdraw Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
The problem, however, is that Zelensky’s attempts to convince the so-called Global South of Ukraine’s position haven’t been as successful as he would like. Whereas the United States and Europe view the war in Ukraine as a borderline struggle between good and evil, vast swaths of Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East see it as an ugly, albeit localized, conflict that should be put to an end as quickly as possible.
That, of course, means negotiating a diplomatic settlement with all the tough compromises that will inevitably be included. Needless to say, Putin and Zelensky are equally adamant that no diplomatic process can begin unless it starts, and ends, on their terms. Key countries, such as China, have already stated they aren’t going to be participating, which angered Zelensky to the point he called out Beijing for prolonging the war due to its economic, political, and military support of Moscow.
It’s therefore difficult to see what the peace summit will accomplish. In fact, the phrase “peace summit” is a bit of a misnomer because there won’t be any pragmatic solutions offered, let alone any actual negotiating going on. Russia, for one thing, isn’t invited (it’s unlikely Putin would have dispatched a representative to the talks anyway), so the entire event will, in essence, be an echo chamber.
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Speeches will be made, pictures will be taken, and press statements will be issued about how the international community must be united in ensuring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ends in defeat. The aim of the entire affair is less about preparing the groundwork for a settlement and more about elevating Ukraine’s ideal version of how the war should conclude: The Russian army withdraws from every inch of Ukrainian territory, Moscow pays Ukraine tens of billions in restitution, and Russian officers are tried for war crimes. Nice to think about but wholeheartedly unrealistic, given the facts there today.
Ultimately, those facts will determine what is and isn’t possible at the negotiating table. The summit Zelensky is in the process of organizing is a public relations exercise, nothing more and nothing less.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.