The Oval Office blowup last Friday was not some sort of “ambush” or setup. Nor was it a temper tantrum.
The deal between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky collapsed amid recriminations because the minerals deal Trump was offering and the implicit security it would provide Ukraine wasn’t what Zelensky came to Washington for.
Zelensky wanted security guarantees from the United States — that is, a promise it would be willing to go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine. It’s understandable he would want such a guarantee, especially given the enemy he’s facing, but Zelensky seemed unwilling to accept anything less without constantly asking for more.
This has been his modus operandi during the whole war. His urgency is understandable, but that doesn’t make it prudent.
“Always ask for more than you expect to get” is a golden rule of negotiation popularized by Roger Dawson, the famed author of Secrets of Power Negotiating.
Zelensky has taken the “always” part too literally.
In every phone call and every meeting — in nearly every utterance — he has pushed for more and more from the U.S. without ever accepting what was on the table and waiting until the next day to ask for more.
When the U.S. offers him something, he responds with a “yes, but also….”
This was how he angered Joe Biden in the first year of the war.
Here’s how NBC News reported it back in 2022:
“Biden had barely finished telling Zelenskyy he’d just greenlighted another $1 billion in U.S. military assistance for Ukraine when Zelenskyy started listing all the additional help he needed and wasn’t getting.” That’s when Biden lost his temper with Zelensky.
NBC characterized Biden’s angry message this way: “The American people were being quite generous, and his administration and the U.S. military were working hard to help Ukraine, he said, raising his voice, and Zelenskyy could show a little more gratitude.”
That’s a familiar tale for anyone who watched Zelensky in Trump’s Oval Office, and the details are important here. The pattern is that Zelensky will not simply accept help from the U.S. and come back the next day for more.
The Trump administration had a multistep plan to end the war and protect Ukraine. The first step was a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described this deal as “An agreement that binds America economically to Ukraine, which to me … is a security guarantee in its own way because we’re involved. It’s not us, it’s our interests.”
The minerals deal would place American companies and workers in Ukraine. As Trump said during the Oval Office meeting, “We’ll have workers there, digging, digging, digging, taking the raw earth,” referring to rare earth metals, which are useful in electronics and weapons. This would give the U.S. a vested interest in Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty and create a tripwire in case of Russian aggression.
“The purpose of this is to show the Russians there is no daylight between us,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
This is far short of the security guarantee Zelensky wants, but it’s more security than Ukraine currently has. You would think he would take this first step before negotiating the next step. But that’s not Zelensky’s style.
The timeline before the Oval Office is telling here. According to Bessent, Zelensky had agreed in principle to the minerals deal weeks ago but demurred, suggesting he would make it official at the Munich Security Conference. In Munich, he punted again.
Then, rather than do it at a distance in late February, he insisted on finalizing the deal in person in Washington.
In the White House and before the press, Zelensky dismissed the minerals agreement as a minor thing and kept hammering away at a fuller security guarantee. He also demanded that Russian President Vladimir Putin be punished as part of a complete and unconditional surrender.
One of his only comments on the minerals agreement was to diminish it, saying he hoped it would “be a first step to real security guarantees for Ukraine. Our people, our children, are really counting on it.”
“This document is not enough,” Zelensky said in the Oval Office.
Later in the press conference, Zelensky repeated, “I want to discuss the infrastructure of security guarantees,” and demanded, “We need this air shield.” He brought out photographs as part of a demand that the U.S. help return prisoners taken by Russia. All this lobbying came with a deal before him, which had not yet been signed.
Halfway through the 50-minute press conference, Zelensky began attacking Trump’s planned next step in the peace process, a ceasefire with Russia. “We will never accept just ceasefire,” Zelensky said. “It will not work without security guarantees.”
“Once we sign that deal, you’re in a much better position,” Trump said at the end of the press conference, “but you’re not acting at all thankful.”
Zelensky did what he had done to Biden — he was more aggressive, in fact, because he was lobbying for parts B and C before even signing the agreement for part A — but this time in public. Trump reacted much the same way Biden had.
THE TRUMP ZELENSKY MEETING EXPLAINED
In this context, Vice President JD Vance’s interjections make more sense. “Have you said thank you once?” Vance asked Zelensky. Taken literally, this was an inapt and even rude question. Zelensky has repeatedly thanked the U.S., but he has never accepted help from the U.S., said thank you, and waited until the next day to ask for more.
His strategy of always asking for more than was on offer may have struck him as a zealous defense of his country, but it struck every single American he dealt with as impatience and ungratefulness. And in the end, by asking for too much too soon, Zelensky walked away with too little.