Younger black voters are increasingly dissatisfied with President Biden, a glaring warning for the party as next year’s presidential contest comes into focus. In 2022, despite generally exceeding expectations, Democrats struggled to turn out their black voter base in places like Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Detroit—all cities vital to the 2024 race. The 11-point turnout differential between white and black voters was the largest in decades.

Despite widespread acknowledgment of the problem, little has changed since November. Biden’s approval rating with black voters is significantly lower today than when he took office. A New York Times average of recent general election polls found the incumbent leading Trump 74-19 with black voters, well below the 90-9 margin he mustered in 2020.

New data from AEI’s Survey Center on American Life reveals that younger black Americans are driving the shift away from Biden—and the Democratic Party. The disparities between black voters ages 18–49 and those 50+ are dramatic.

Opinions of Biden and his administration among younger black Americans are poor. Only 58% approve of his job performance, compared to nearly 80% of older black Americans. Despite a recent push to tout “Bidenomics” in battleground cities—the president was in Philadelphia over Labor Day and Milwaukee a couple weeks prior—Biden has not convinced young nonwhite voters that his administration has done a whole lot. A paltry 36% of young black Americans think Biden has accomplished a “good” or “great deal.”

Changes in party identification may explain some of the yawning generational gaps. In recent decades, the share of U.S. adults identifying as independent has skyrocketed, particularly among millennials. The black voter subsample reflects this dissatisfaction with the two-party system. In the long run, however, Democratic leaders ought to be worried at how few young black voters self-identify as Democrats. Republican identification is hardly through the roof, but the lukewarm attachment to the Democratic label may signal deeper problems for the party.

The lack of support for the Biden campaign is of more immediate concern. Only 21% of black 18–49-year-olds want Biden to be the nominee, compared to a majority of the older cohort. Electoral history suggests most will hold their nose and vote blue, but low enthusiasm could depress turnout—a disastrous outcome for a party that relies on huge urban margins. Signs of declining margins were already evident in last year’s midterms. Democratic congressional candidates carried black voters 18–29 by 68 points, down from 81 points in the previous two midterms, 2018 and 2014.

Some Democrats are tempted to write off these startling findings by ascribing them entirely to Biden’s age. Younger voters are naturally less excited about re-nominating an octogenarian incumbent, they might argue. But the tepid enthusiasm extends beyond Biden and suggests a deeper problem with the Democratic Party’s messaging. More than a third of young black Americans think the Democratic Party looks down on them. Just 60% think the party looks out for the working class, a 20-point decline from the older group. Saved by white working-class reversion in 2022, Democrats have not yet seen the full impact of such low party enthusiasm among young nonwhite voters. If Republican working-class margins return in 2024, however, Democrats risk losing the turnout battle.

One poll, of course, is hardly definitive. Much remains unsettled more than a year from the general. Nevertheless, survey after survey suggests President Biden has real weaknesses with core Democratic constituencies. If they hope to hold the presidency—even against a very weak Donald Trump—Democrats must boost enthusiasm among young black voters. The clock is ticking.

This article originally appeared in the AEIdeas blog and is reprinted with kind permission from the American Enterprise Institute.