WITKOFF TO SPAR WITH ‘WILY CHARACTERS’: With just three days before President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Russia to get serious about negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine, special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to show up in Moscow as soon as tomorrow to give Russian President Vladimir Putin one more last chance to agree to a ceasefire.
Asked earlier this week what it would take for Putin to avoid secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners, Trump told reporters, “Get a deal where people stop getting killed.” Trump seems to have accepted that his threatened sanctions — which would penalize countries like China and India that still buy Russia cut-rate oil — will likely have little effect on Putin, who in recent weeks has made clear he wants all of Ukraine, no matter the cost.
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“Well, there’ll be sanctions, but they seem to be pretty good at avoiding sanctions. You know, they are wily characters and they’re pretty good at avoiding sanctions,” Trump said Sunday. “They would like to see him. They’ve asked that he meet. So we’ll see what happens.”
STEVE WITKOFF HEADING TO RUSSIA TO MAKE CEASEFIRE DEAL BEFORE TRUMP DEADLINE
‘A LOT OF PEOPLE BEING KILLED IN THAT RIDICULOUS WAR’: In the course of the war, which is now six months into its fourth year, Ukraine has kept a tight lid on the number of casualties it has suffered, both to deny Russia information of the strength of its forces, and to avoid undercutting the morale of the Ukrainian people. But as Trump has railed against what he believes to be needless deaths, he’s revealed U.S. intelligence estimates that show the staggering human cost of the war.
“So it’s a lot of people being killed in that ridiculous war,” Trump said. “A tremendous number of Russian soldiers are being killed. And likewise Ukraine, a lower number, but still thousands and thousands of people.”
“I have just been informed that almost 20,000 Russian soldiers died this month in the ridiculous War with Ukraine. Russia has lost 112,500 soldiers since the beginning of the year. That is a lot of unnecessary DEATH!” Trump posted on his Truth Social network on Friday. While Ukraine has suffered fewer, but still significant casualties. “They have lost approximately 8,000 soldiers since January 1, 2025, and that number does not include their missing. Ukraine has also lost civilians, but in smaller numbers, as Russian rockets crash into Kyiv, and other Ukrainian locales.”
That ratio, Russia losing 14 soldiers to every one Ukrainian casualty, normally would be unsustainable, but Putin appears inured to the horrific toll the war is taking on his troops. “More than one million Russians killed and wounded, over 500,000 have not been able to return to the front lines. In other words, they’ve been killed or so seriously wounded they could not,” former U.S. Central Commander retired Gen. David Petraeus said at a recent Hudson Institute event. “As somebody who wrote letters of condolence to America’s mothers and fathers and others every single night … I can’t comprehend the numbers.”
“These casualties are enormous. And so to do what’s necessary to enable Ukraine to stop them cold, perhaps even push them back a bit, that’s the way to set the conditions for where Putin might finally be willing to sit down at a table and consider something that is realistic,” Petraeus said.
NETHERLANDS TO SUPPLY UKRAINE WITH MORE THAN $500M IN US WEAPONS
UKRAINE: “WE HAVE CONCRETE IDEAS’: With prospects for any last-ditch breakthrough dim, Ukraine is pitching a strategy aimed at convincing Putin he can’t win. “By cutting back the previous 50-day window to just 10 days last week, the U.S. president sent an unmistakable signal to Putin. These signals need to be followed up with decisive action for the war to end,” Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office and a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, writes in an opinion piece published in the Washington Post this morning.
“We thank Trump for his firm and unmistakable commitment to peace through strength. It is a commitment we share,” Yermak says. “To truly shift the war’s trajectory, however, the existing sanctions regime must be sharpened. We have concrete ideas on how to do so.”
Yermak’s key points:
- Russia’s military-industrial complex needs to be better targeted. Entities such as Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear agency, and Roscosmos, its space agency, are not neutral civilian institutions, but strategic enablers of Putin’s war. Both agencies must be sanctioned in full and banned from cooperating with Western scientific and academic institutions.
- A full economic blockade is needed. Russia imports billions worth of microchips and electronics used in its drones and missiles through China and other smaller countries across Central Asia. The bipartisan Graham-Blumenthal bill marks a strong step toward imposing secondary sanctions on entities in third countries that help fund Russia’s war machine.
- Trump’s decision last week to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil above the price cap surely rattled the Kremlin. It’s a great first step, but more pressure is needed. Those include imposing sanctions on Russian ports used for exporting oil; designating operators of the shadow fleets of oil tankers, including vessels that disable tracking systems and use ship-to-ship transfers to obscure origin; and targeting intermediaries in the defense supply chain, including crypto infrastructure such as exchanges and wallets used for illicit payments and sanctions evasion.
“The tools to stop Russia exist. What is needed is the political will to use them with precision and force,” Yermak writes. “Thousands of lives depend on the success of what follows.”
TRUMP SAYS HE WILL RAISE TARIFFS ON INDIA OVER RUSSIA OIL PURCHASES
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Several thousand union workers at Boeing who make advanced jet fighters, such as the F-15 and F/A-18, are on strike this morning after a Sunday strike vote. The 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, who work at Boeing facilities in St. Louis, Missouri, St. Charles, Missouri, and Mascoutah, Illinois, represent a smaller group than the 33,000 employees who walked off the job last year at Boeing Pacific Northwest facilities that make passenger jets, including the 737 MAX.
“We’re disappointed our employees rejected an offer that featured 40% average wage growth and resolved their primary issue on alternative work schedules,” said Dan Gillian, Boeing Air Dominance vice president and general manager. “We are prepared for a strike and have fully implemented our contingency plan to ensure our non-striking workforce can continue supporting our customers.”
The job action comes as Boeing reported second-quarter earnings that showed its losses shrinking and its revenue increasing, as it delivered more commercial planes during the three months ended June 30.
MORE NUCLEAR BRINKMANSHIP: The latest in the back and forth between Russia and the United States over veiled nuclear threats came yesterday when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to President Trump’s weekend announcement that “based on the highly provocative statements of the Former President of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev,” he had “ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.”
“They are in the region, yes, where they have to be,” Trump said Sunday. “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences, I hope this will not be one of those instances,” he said in his Truth Social post.
“Russia is very cautious about nuclear nonproliferation matters, and we believe everyone should be very careful about nuclear rhetoric,” Peskov said in the first official statement from the Kremlin. He seemed to be distancing himself from Medvedev’s incendiary remarks on X, in which he referred to Russia’s so-called “Dead Hand” system to ensure Russian nukes launch even if Russian leadership is taken out in a first strike.
“There can be no winner in a nuclear war,” Peskov said. “This is probably the key premise we rely on. We do not think there is talk of any escalation.”
Trump’s statement that U.S. ballistic missile submarines are “positioned in the region” in some ways has very little meaning, given that the whole mission of the “boomers,” as the subs are called, is to lurk in secret locations around the globe, with the ability to strike key targets before they can be detected. In that sense, they are always “positioned in the appropriate regions.”
And stating that they are being moved changes nothing, since their location is always secret.
RUSSIA SAYS DEFUNCT INF TREATY, NOW REALLY DEFUNCT: During President Trump’s first term, he pulled out of the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which he accused Russia of violating with impunity.
Russia claimed it still was abiding by the restrictions of the 1987 treaty, which banned the deployment of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, despite evidence that the country has been using missiles in that range to strike Ukraine.
In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry now says it “no longer considers itself bound” by its “previously adopted self-restrictions.”
“Russia voluntarily assuming unilateral self-restraint on deploying ground-based INF systems for as long as similar U.S.-made missile weapons do not emerge in the corresponding regions of the world,” the statement said, while accusing the U.S. of violating the spirit of the defunct treaty. “Since 2023, we have observed instances of U.S. systems capable of ground-launched INF strikes being transferred to the European NATO countries for trial use during exercises that clearly have an anti-Russia slant.”
“Our repeated warnings on this account have been ignored, and the US-made ground-based INF systems are being deployed in Europe and the Asia-Pacific. In this regard, the Russian Foreign Ministry states that the conditions for maintaining a unilateral moratorium on the deployment of similar systems have ceased to exist.”
In yet another provocative post on X, Dmitry Medvedev said the move was a “result of NATO countries’ anti-Russian policy.” He added, “This is a new reality all our opponents will have to reckon with. Expect further steps.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Netherlands to supply Ukraine with more than $500M in US weapons
Washington Examiner: Steve Witkoff heading to Russia to make ceasefire deal before Trump deadline
Washington Examiner: Trump says he will raise tariffs on India over Russia oil purchases
Washington Examiner: Trump orders two nuclear submarines repositioned after Russia threats
Washington Examiner: Mike Johnson visits West Bank settlements as Israeli officials push to annex region fully
Washington Examiner: Hamas claims it will permit aid for hostages on condition Israel halts airstrikes
Washington Examiner: FEMA to deny federal funding to states that cut contracts with Israeli companies
Washington Examiner: Kim Yo Jong takes center stage as North Korea plays nicer with US, scorns South
Washington Examiner: Who is ICE arresting? Data show 66% of illegal immigrants are criminals
Washington Examiner: National Park Service to reinstall statue of Confederate general toppled in DC in 2020
AP: Thousands of Boeing Workers Who Build Fighter Jets and Weapons Go on Strike
Washington Post: Top Hegseth aide tried to oust senior White House liaison from Pentagon
AP: China pushes back at US demands to stop buying Russian and Iranian oil
Wall Street Journal: China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies
Washington Post: Andriy Yermak Opinion: How to shut down Putin’s war machine
AP: Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies uncover drone procurement graft scheme
Washington Post: Locals beg for Putin’s help as Russian-occupied Ukraine runs out of water
New York Times: Russian Nuclear Submarine Base Was Damaged in Quake, Satellite Images Show
Defense News: Army Plans to Grow Patriot Battalions, Plus One for Guam
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Starts Building Second F-16 ‘Super Squadron’ in South Korea
The War Zone: New Chinese Stealth Tactical Jet Breaks Cover
DefenseScoop: New Commission to Examine How to Create an Independent Cyber Force
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Zeroes in on Targeting from Orbit, but Timeline Unclear
Task & Purpose: How Far Does the US Military Have to Go to Catch Up on Drones?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Staff Sergeant Promotions See Biggest Jump Since 2001
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-15E Lands with Two Wheels at Kadena, Crew Safe
Washington Post: Trump moves to bar nearly all abortions at Veterans Affairs hospitals
Air Force Times: Security Forces Airman Dies in Vehicle Accident at RAF Lakenheath
Breaking Defense: Opinion: Four Reasons to Accelerate F-35 Acquisition Now
THE CALENDAR:
TUESDAY | AUGUST 5
9 p.m. 725 Park Ave., New York, New York — Asia Society Policy Institute discussion: “Low Expectations Getting Lower: EU-China Relations After the EU-China Summit,” with Plamen Tonchev, head of the Institute of International Economic Relations’ Asia Unit; Lyle Morris, senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis; and Philippe Le Corre, Asia Society senior fellow https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/events
3 p.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Examining Russia’s Assault on Ukraine’s Cultural Heritage,” with Ukraine Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Galyna Grygorenko, acting minister of culture and strategic communications of Ukraine; Brian Daniels, director of research and programs at the University of Pennsylvania Museum’s Penn Cultural Heritage Center; Louise Shelley, professor emerita and chair emerita at George Mason University and founder and executive director of the Terrorism, Transnational Crime, and Corruption Center; and Deborah Lehr, chairman and founder of The Antiquities Coalition https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/examining-russias-assault
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 6
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Countering China’s Digital Silk Road: Kenya,” with former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Maureen Farrell; Jane Munga, fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Program; Maxwell Okello, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce Kenya; and Vivek Chilukuri, senior fellow and program director at the CNAS Technology and National Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-countering-chinas-digital-silk-road-kenya
THURSDAY | AUGUST 7
9 a.m. 600 14th St. NW — Government Executive Media Group Defense One DOD Cloud Workshop, with Former Deputy Defense CIO Danielle Metz; and Adarryl Roberts, CIO of the Defense Logistics Agency https://events.defenseone.com/dod-cloud-workshop-2025/
10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Nuclear command and control,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. Jason Armagost, commander, Joint-Global Strike Operations Center https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/maj-gen-jason-armagost/
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “U.S. Strategy for Conflict Prevention in Syria,” with Daniel Schneiderman, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program and former senior coordinator for Afghanistan at the Defense Department; Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser and director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Middle East Program; Ibrahim Al-Assil, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Adham Sahloul, senior adviser and coordinator and adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program North Star Policy Initiative https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-u-s-policy-for-engagement-with-israel-and-syria
1:30 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group and the Advanced Technology Academic Research Center virtual discussion: “Intersection of Quantum, AI, and Security,” with Chrisma Jackson, chief information security officer and director of cybersecurity and mission computing at Sandia National Laboratories; Tameika Turner, senior cybersecurity program manager at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Gina Scinta, deputy CTO of Thales TCT; and Kevin Walsh, director of information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office https://atarc.org/event/quantumaiandsecurity
FRIDAY | AUGUST 8
7 p.m. 610 Water St. SW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: The Devil Reached Toward the Sky: An Oral History of the Making and Unleashing of the Atomic Bomb, with author Garrett Graff, host of the Doomsday Scenario newsletter https://politics-prose.com/garrett-graff