WITKOFF MEETS PUTIN: Special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow early today, with no guarantee he would get another face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has steadfastly refused to agree to any of President Donald Trump’s overtures to bring the three-and-a-half-year Ukraine war to an end.
Witkoff was greeted by Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s point man, and the two were seen strolling through a park close to the Kremlin. A short time later, Putin’s office posted this terse statement: “The President of Russia met in the Kremlin with Special Envoy of the President of the United States of America Steve Witkoff.”
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To say prospects for an 11th-hour breakthrough are dim would be to risk serious understatement. “Private and public Kremlin statements indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before he will initiate a peace agreement,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment.
“The Kremlin also likely intends for these leaks to Western media to advance its ongoing effort to break Ukrainian and Western morale,” the ISW concluded. “One Kremlin source told Reuters that the Russian General Staff recently told Putin that the front line in Ukraine will likely ‘crumble’ in two to three months. This source is likely providing an accurate reflection of the situation in the Kremlin and the Russian General Staff, as the Russian General Staff is almost certainly giving Putin a positive assessment of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.”
PUTIN BELIEVES HE’S WINNING: The Reuters news agency, citing “sources close to the Kremlin,” reported that Putin is trying not to anger Trump, and realizes he’s risking the ire of the American president, “but his war goals take precedence.”
“Putin’s determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war,” Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin.
“Putin’s goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement,” one of the sources told Reuters.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that with Russia facing increasingly effective drone attacks on its energy and logistics infrastructure inside its territory, Putin may be willing to agree to an “air truce,” while he continues to use his ground forces to expand territorial control.
The Kremlin is weighing options for a concession to U.S. President Donald Trump that could include an air truce with Ukraine to try to head off the threat of secondary sanctions, even as Russia remains determined to continue its war. “A pause on air strikes involving drones and missiles as a deescalation gesture may be one potential proposal provided that Ukraine also signed up,” Bloomberg reported, citing “people familiar with the situation.”
“Still, President Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a general ceasefire in Ukraine as his forces continue steady advances on the battlefield, and Russia’s war aims remain unchanged,” the report said.
While not responding directly to the report, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted Ukraine has offered an air truce before, and Russia has never lived up to its side of the bargain.
“We’ve already tried many different formats — ways to stop the fighting, to stop the killing. We have spoken and offered Russia silence in the skies, an end to missile and drone strikes against civilian infrastructure in general, and specifically, a halt to attacks on the energy sector,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “All of this was violated by Russia. And in a very cynical way. Not a single day has gone by without their terror against civilians. Not a single day have they given us real, complete silence on the frontline.”
TRUMP: OIL PRICES ARE THE KEY: While it’s been widely reported that Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil customers, mainly China and India, would be a whopping 100%, Trump said yesterday that he had not settled on that number. “Well, I never said a percentage, but we’ll be doing quite a bit of that,” Trump said at an executive order signing event. “We’ll see what happens over the next fairly short period of time.”
Earlier, in an appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box program, Trump told host Joe Kernen that falling oil prices could bring Putin to the negotiating table.
“If energy goes down low enough, Putin’s going to stop killing people. That’ll be nice, even though they’re his own people that are dying, him and Ukraine,” Trump said. “But Putin will stop killing people. If you get energy down another $10 a barrel, he’s going to have no choice, because his economy stinks.”
On Monday, in a Truth Social post, Trump accused India of profiteering at the expense of Ukrainian civilians. “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,” Trump said. “Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”
“It is extremely important that Moscow is beginning to feel the pressure of the world, the pressure from the United States, the threat of tougher sanctions for continuing the war,” Zelensky said last night. “And one of the key sanctions tracks is indeed Russian oil. For Russia to move toward peace, it must run out of money for the war.”
Trump insists he is unconcerned that his secondary sanctions might introduce instability in global oil markets and cause prices to rise instead of fall.
“I’m not worried about prices because we’re drilling at levels that nobody’s ever seen before,” Trump said, claiming credit for gas prices in the U.S. as low as $2.20 a gallon. The national average price for a gallon of regular gas on Tuesday was $3.163. The price marks an increase of three consecutive days at the pumps to begin August, according to AAA.
LITHUANIA REQUESTS NATO BOLSTER AIR DEFENSES AFTER RUSSIAN DRONE ENTERS AIRSPACE
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Elderly survivors, averaging 86 years of age, gathered in Hiroshima, Japan today to mark the 80th anniversary of the Aug. 6, 1945, U.S. atomic bombing that destroyed the city, and killed 140,000 civilians. A second bomb dropped three days later on Nagasaki killed 70,000, prompting Japan to surrender on Aug. 15, ending World War II.
“About 55,000 people, including representatives from a record 120 countries and regions, including Russia and Belarus, attended the ceremony,” according to the Associated Press. “A minute of silence was held while a peace bell rang out at 8:15 a.m., the time when the U.S. B-29 Enola Gay dropped the bomb on the city.”
On the 75th anniversary, the Pentagon acknowledged the event on its website. Today, there is no mention of the historic dawn of the age of nuclear warfare.
WILL AI HERALD A NEW HIROSHIMA?
$1 BILLION IN ARMS TO UKRAINE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had a “productive” conversation with President Trump yesterday. Zelensky spoke highly of Trump, saying, “He is very well informed.”
“He knows about the Russian strikes and the situation on the front line. He is aware that the Russians are now trying to make their attacks more intense,” said Zelensky, who thanked Trump for his “special initiative,” which facilitates arms shipments to Ukraine under an arrangement whereby European countries purchase the weapons on behalf of Ukraine.
“These commitments deliver on President Trump’s initiative to facilitate billions of dollars in investment to the United States defense industry and create American jobs, while ensuring Europe can ultimately defend itself long-term,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said at yesterday’s briefing.
“Denmark, Norway, and Sweden announced they would fund an additional $500 million package of U.S.-made equipment for Ukraine. In addition, yesterday, the Netherlands announced it will fund the first package of U.S.-made weapons and munitions, including Patriot missiles, worth over $500 million,” Bruce said. “Together, these deliveries total over $1 billion of lifesaving, top-of-the-line American equipment that, as noted by Ambassador Whitaker, will allow Ukraine to, quote, ‘protect critical infrastructure and civilian lives, while also staying in the fight until a lasting ceasefire happens.’”
OCCUPY GAZA? TRUMP SAYS IT’S ‘UP TO ISRAEL’: With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly considering plans to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, President Trump said he has no opinion on the matter.
Various Israeli media outlets reported earlier this week that Netanyahu wants to expand the Israeli military operations across the entire Gaza Strip, including areas where Hamas’s captives are believed to be held.
Asked if he would support the re-occupation of all of Gaza, Trump said he was not aware of the plan. “I don’t know what the suggestion is. I know that we are there now trying to get people fed,” Trump said. “So that’s what I’m focused on. As far as the rest of it, I really can’t say. That’s going to be pretty much up to Israel.”
“The new pressure on Netanyahu came as Gaza’s Health Ministry said the Palestinian death toll had surpassed 61,000,” according to the Associated Press. “Health officials reported new deaths of hungry Palestinians seeking food at distribution points. As desperation mounts, the Israeli defense body coordinating aid announced a deal with local merchants to improve aid deliveries.”
“As you know, $60 million was given by the United States fairly recently to supply food, and a lot of food, frankly, for the people of Gaza that are obviously not doing too well with the food,” Trump said. “And I know Israel’s going to help us with that, in terms of distribution and also money. We also have the Arab states that are going to help us with that, in terms of the money and possibly distribution.”
ISRAEL ALLOWS MERCHANTS INTO GAZA STRIP AMID REPORTS OF VOTE FOR FULL OCCUPATION
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Ukraine says it found Indian components in Russian attack drones
Washington Examiner: Russia won’t abide by self-imposed ban on deploying intermediate-range missiles
Washington Examiner: Israel allows merchants into Gaza Strip amid reports of vote for full occupation
Washington Examiner: FEMA to deny federal funding to states that cut contracts with Israeli companies
Washington Examiner: Trump DOJ lists sanctuary cities and states it wants to ‘eradicate’
Washington Examiner: OPM ends mandated ‘five things’ email started by Musk
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Turkey’s collapse and partition appears inevitable
AP: Netanyahu hints at expanded war in Gaza but former Israeli military and spy chiefs object
Wall Street Journal: Israel’s Urgent Debate: Whether to Occupy Gaza
AP: Iran executes man accused of spying for Israel and another for planning IS group sabotage
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Sells $1 Billion in Arms to Europe for Ukraine, Sealing Shift in Weapons Pipeline
Reuters: Putin doubts potency of Trump’s ultimatum to end the war, sources say
Bloomberg: Russia Weighs Ukraine Air-Truce Offer to Trump Without Ending War
Washington Post: Trump ceded leverage over Putin by pausing sanctions, Democratic report says
Kyiv Independent: ‘No other choice’ — Syrskyi says Ukraine must mobilize to counter growing Russian forces
Business Insider: Ukraine says it stole intel from the Russian Navy and found weak points in its newest nuclear missile submarine
AP: Trump-backed Nawrocki assumes the Polish presidency and could steer a more nationalist course
Soldier of Fortune: Ex-SIG Sauer Engineer Files Patent to Fix Alleged ‘Unsafe’ P320 Gun Design
Just the News: ‘Make BASIC Great Again’: Hegseth looks to return drill sergeant ‘shark attacks’ to basic training
Politico: Pentagon Keeps a Lid on Golden Dome
Defense News: Lockheed Launches Hub to Prototype Golden Dome Command Systems
Defense News: Army to Grow Air Defense Force by 30%
The War Zone: F-15EX Fuel Venting Troubles Emerge, Boeing Testing Fixes
Breaking Defense: SPACECOM Chief Doubles Down on Need for On-Orbit Mobility
DefenseScoop: Space Force Gets New Senior Leader for Cyber and Data
Defense One: Anduril Becomes Third US Supplier of Rocket Motors, Company Says
Task & Purpose: The Navy Flew a Solar-Powered Drone for 73 Hours Straight
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Facing Retirement, U-2 Flies Record Mission to Celebrate 70 Years of Flight
Oilpricecom: Strikes on Iran Force Tashkent to Bet on Risky Afghan Corridor
Air & Space Forces Magazine: A Budget Season Like No OtherAir & Space Forces Magazine: A Small Uniform Tweak Reveals a Shift in Space Force Culture
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 6
9:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Countering China’s Digital Silk Road: Kenya,” with former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs Maureen Farrell; Jane Munga, fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Program; Maxwell Okello, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce Kenya; and Vivek Chilukuri, senior fellow and program director at the CNAS Technology and National Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-countering-chinas-digital-silk-road-kenya
THURSDAY | AUGUST 7
9 a.m. 600 14th St. NW — Government Executive Media Group Defense One DOD Cloud Workshop, with Former Deputy Defense CIO Danielle Metz; and Adarryl Roberts, CIO of the Defense Logistics Agency https://events.defenseone.com/dod-cloud-workshop-2025/
10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Nuclear command and control,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. Jason Armagost, commander, Joint-Global Strike Operations Center https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/maj-gen-jason-armagost/
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “U.S. Strategy for Conflict Prevention in Syria,” with Daniel Schneiderman, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program and former senior coordinator for Afghanistan at the Defense Department; Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser and director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Middle East Program; Ibrahim Al-Assil, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Adham Sahloul, senior adviser and coordinator and adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Middle East Security Program North Star Policy Initiative https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-u-s-policy-for-engagement-with-israel-and-syria
1:30 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group and the Advanced Technology Academic Research Center virtual discussion: “Intersection of Quantum, AI, and Security,” with Chrisma Jackson, chief information security officer and director of cybersecurity and mission computing at Sandia National Laboratories; Tameika Turner, senior cybersecurity program manager at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Gina Scinta, deputy CTO of Thales TCT; and Kevin Walsh, director of information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office https://atarc.org/event/quantumaiandsecurity
FRIDAY | AUGUST 8
7 p.m. 610 Water St. SW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: The Devil Reached Toward the Sky: An Oral History of the Making and Unleashing of the Atomic Bomb, with author Garrett Graff, host of the Doomsday Scenario newsletter https://politics-prose.com/garrett-graff