The Wisconsin Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Tuesday in a high-stakes voting rights case that could upend the state's election maps, booting Republican lawmakers from oddly shaped districts that had cemented their majority for more than a decade, and trigger a ripple effect all the way to the White House.
Wisconsin is one of the country's most politically competitive states, and how the high court decides could have a major impact on state and national politics.
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Critics said the Wisconsin maps are unfair and have led to Republicans having a two-thirds supermajority in the state Senate and a similar outcome in the assembly, which lawmakers have already used to block appointments made by Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI), and threatened the job of a Wisconsin elections administrator over the 2020 presidential race, which was narrowly won by President Joe Biden in the state.
Democrats believe the gerrymandered maps do not reflect fair representation.
In 2011, Republicans redrew Wisconsin's districts in a way that led to a vice grip on power Republicans have enjoyed for the past several years.
In the state assembly, the GOP has won at least 60% of the 99 seats. Last year, even though Evers won, he carried only 38 of 99 assembly districts, prompting a renewed look and a lawsuit over the state's maps that seemed impenetrable for Democrats.
In the past, when the state Supreme Court had a conservative majority, Democrats didn't have much of a chance. However, things could be different following the Wisconsin Supreme Court win by Justice Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal, over former Justice Daniel Kelly, a conservative. Protasiewicz's win wrangled control from conservatives, who have been in power for 15 years, and made her the deciding vote not only on political maps but also on abortion rights and perhaps even the 2024 presidential race.
On the campaign trail, she spoke about the gerrymandered maps and abortion, and after her win, Republicans launched multiple pressure campaigns to force her to recuse herself from the case, which she has refused to do.
Protasiewicz was sworn in on Aug. 1. The redistricting lawsuit was filed the day after. The Wisconsin high court also decided to hear the case directly instead of having it argued at a trial court first, prompting outrage from some.
The Democrats' case to the high court Tuesday will begin with a narrow argument by attorney Jeff Mandell, who is expected to tell the justices that "all territory needs to be one unit," according to Wisconsin Public Radio. Mandell, who represents 19 Democratic voters, will also likely argue that the state constitution requires 132 legislative districts in Wisconsin to share a border.
"It needs to be one unit," Mandell said. "But that's not the way the maps look."
The attorney for the 19 voters who represent the districts the Democrats want to recast will likely challenge the contiguity claim and say Wisconsin law has always had parts of its districting maps that don't touch and therefore the maps should stay as is.
"Everybody has understood that you're allowed to keep a town together, even though its parts are disconnected," Luke Berg said.
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The existing maps were originally created a decade ago under a then-Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI). They were edited after the 2020 census to give Republicans even more of an advantage.
The state Supreme Court is not expected to rule immediately on the case.