China pretends to be pursuing a peaceful solution to the war in Ukraine. In reality, its Ukraine strategy is to support Russia and hope no one notices. When it comes to Russia, Beijing's motto might easily be described as:
"Qu'ils mangent de la Ukraine."
"Let them eat Ukraine."
Still, China continues to receive the European Union's political deference even as it provides economic and political cover for Russia. Beijing's gall is on stark display. The Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Moscow in April or early May. This would follow the trip to Moscow by the Chinese Communist Party's foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, on Tuesday.
BIDEN'S VERY SUCCESSFUL TRIP TO EUROPE
Wang's travels, and likely those of Xi when he goes to Moscow, have one key purpose: namely, to advance the global understanding that Beijing is using its unique influence with Moscow to pursue a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Lacking details nor any Ukrainian buy-in, this peace deal is not serious. Instead, it offers China a veil of earnest diplomacy to obfuscate its trade with Russia and associated diplomatic cover for Moscow. Too many in the EU, President Emmanuel Macron of France in particular, have played to China's duplicity here by giving currency to Beijing's implication that it will pressure Moscow for peace. To be fair to Macron, his stance is at least born of wishful thinking. In contrast, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's support for the peace antics is vested in his willingness to be a Chinese Communist carpet.
The truth is that while Beijing would probably prefer peace between Ukraine and Russia, it won't jeopardize its relationship with Russia in order to achieve a credible peace. Xi did not sign a statement pledging "no limits to Sino-Russian cooperation … no forbidden zones" simply to make Putin feel good. Xi did so because he views Russia as a subordinate but important partner in degrading the U.S.-led democratic international order. Russia also allows China to tie down the U.S. military in Europe (a very relevant concern vis-a-vis Taiwan). Russia also assists China in pressuring Japan and the United States's Pacific posture. Russia's highly capable submarine force bears special note here.
The only reason China has not yet provided Russia with much-needed arms to fight its war in Ukraine is that Xi fears this would be a step too far, even for the Europeans. He does not want to jeopardize the trade-for-political-loyalty gambit that sits at the centerpiece of his European strategy. After all, if Xi can sever the EU from its partnership with the U.S., he can move to replace the U.S.-led democratic international order with a feudal mercantile international order led from Beijing. Then the world is his to play with as he will.
The question for the Europeans, then, is whether they can find the courage to see Xi's upcoming flirtation in Moscow for what it is: proof positive of Xi's support for Russia even as Putin wages the largest land war in Europe since 1945 — or whether the EU continues to insist its appeasement of China is compatible with China's enabling of Russia's destruction.