The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement at the White House on Friday. This deal would have been unthinkable not long ago. For three decades, the conflict has defined the South Caucasus. It was mediated and manipulated by Russian diplomats, patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, and shaped by Russian interests. Now, Washington is writing the ending of a sad chapter in history.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have brought to a close an enmity that has plagued the South Caucasus since the early 1990s. From the bloody battles of the early 1990s, to Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020, to the lightning offensive of 2023 that emptied Nagorno-Karabakh of its Armenian population, this conflict has haunted generations.
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Still, this agreement represents more than a bilateral settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it marks a fundamental realignment of South Caucasian geopolitics.
Central to this agreement is a 43.5-kilometer corridor through Armenian territory linking Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan enclave on the Turkish border. This area will be developed by the U.S. and named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).
Also known as the Zangezur corridor, the area runs directly along Iran’s northern border. Combined with President Donald Trump‘s renewed pressure campaign against Tehran, this deal places new American influence on Iran’s doorstep. It provides strategic leverage in a region where Iranian influence has traditionally been strong. For decades, Baku demanded access to Nakhchivan; Yerevan refused, fearing a loss of sovereignty and a cutoff from Iran. The American solution, as reported, outsources Armenian border and customs checks to a U.S. entity, giving Azerbaijan its route, preserving Armenia’s control, and ensuring a permanent American role on the ground.
The success of this mediation effort signals a broader revival of American influence in the region. The fact that Trump has succeeded where other international mediators failed demonstrates that American power remains unmatched when Washington chooses to engage decisively.
It also takes Russia out of equation in the region that it tried to control for over two centuries. Armenia traditionally was once Moscow’s most loyal ally in the Caucasus. Over the years, to Yerevan’s detriment, the relationship turned into a dependence: Russia controlled Armenia’s borders, kept a military base in the country, supplied most of its energy, and claimed to be its security guarantor. But when Azerbaijan moved in 2023, Russia did nothing. The betrayal was noted by Yerevan.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has since cooled ties with Moscow, flirted with Tehran to balance against Turkey and Azerbaijan, while searching for Western partners. The U.S., for years, refrained from playing a more central role.
This deal also cracks open the door to Armenia-Turkey normalization. Ankara closed its border with Armenia during the first Karabakh war and has kept it shut ever since, conditioning any reopening on peace with Azerbaijan. Yerevan now has a real chance to end three decades of economic and diplomatic isolation from its largest neighbor to the west, opening its connections to the West.
The agreement also redraws the modern Silk Road. Until now, the main east-west route through the South Caucasus ran via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan corridor. The new link creates an additional transit artery, expanding transport options and opening new economic opportunities. For Armenia, it offers a role in regional trade networks from which it has long been excluded; for Azerbaijan, it strengthens its position as a key hub between Europe and Asia.
It’s important to note that, this opening was possible partly because Russia is tied down in Ukraine. With Ukrainians keeping Russians consumed by its war there, Moscow lacked the capacity to defend Armenia or block U.S. mediation, creating space for Washington to close a deal that would have been harder under an unentrenched Kremlin.
Washington’s step will be read well beyond Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Tbilisi, Georgia, where the government has deepened its relationship with Moscow and clamped down on domestic dissent, the message is clear: U.S. power is back. Aligning against your population’s pro-Western leanings and toward the Kremlin can be a political risk when Washington decides to engage.
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There will be challenges ahead. Armenia must amend its constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh. This process is politically sensitive and vulnerable to Russian interference, especially considering Kremlin efforts to undermine the Armenian leadership domestically. Trust between Yerevan and Baku also remains fragile. And the Caucasus is a place where peace agreements have a habit of collapsing under the weight of history.
Yet, the significance of this moment shouldn’t be underestimated. The U.S. is not just brokering peace. It is embedding itself in the region’s infrastructure, its security architecture, and its future. Russia is out, Iran is confronted with a new reality on its border, and the balance of power has shifted, away from Moscow and for American benefit.