Speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday in New York, President Donald Trump was asked if NATO member states should shoot down Russian planes that enter their airspace.

He responded, “Yes.”

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This comes days after three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets flew into Estonian airspace, staying there for 12 minutes. Estonian officials said the jets switched off their transponders, ignored calls from controllers, and flew a trajectory that made clear it was deliberate. Similarly, Russian aerial drones recently penetrated Polish and Romanian airspace without approval.

As usual, Moscow denies any violations. But it’s clear that Russia is testing NATO, probing for weakness, and trying to show it can escalate on its own terms.

The truth, however, is the opposite. Russia cannot escalate meaningfully. Its military is bogged down in Ukraine, and whatever it has left are only stunts to increase the worries of European populations that the war in Ukraine could “spread” to them.

That does not make these incidents any less serious, especially for Estonia, which has no fighter jets of its own and depends on NATO’s rotating air-policing mission. That arrangement has long worked, but recent incursion showed its fragility. Russia can move quickly, while NATO’s response depends on allies. In this case, Italian fighters were scrambled, yet the authority to use lethal force ultimately rests with Rome, not Tallinn. Estonia could request a shoot-down, but coordinating such an order in real time would be difficult. The episode has led some in Estonia to suggest that Tallinn should consider establishing a combat air force of its own.

But Moscow also wants to test whether the United States would really come to defend its allies in the event of a full confrontation, and that’s why Trump’s answer matters. His “yes” gives reassurance to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, the countries on NATO’s eastern flank with Russia that invest heavily in defense.

But the record also shows resolve works with Moscow. When Turkey shot down a Russian jet over its territory in 2015, 17 seconds after it crossed into its airspace, the Kremlin barked but did not bite. When, in 2018, U.S. strikes killed dozens of Wagner fighters in Syria under Trump, Russia remained silent. Whenever the line is drawn clearly, Moscow steps back.

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Russia’s goal is to make sure that the line is blurry. The danger here, of course, is Trump’s inconsistency. He has swung on NATO and Russia repeatedly. If Trump maintains his current line, Russia will likely back off. But if he backtracks, the Kremlin gains exactly what it seeks: uncertainty about U.S. commitments.

In that sense, what Russia is really testing here is American leadership. If Washington fails to respond clearly, it is not just NATO’s credibility at stake — it is America’s standing as the leader of the free world.