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If you want to know why Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is not going to provide the seven Democratic votes needed to keep the government open this Tuesday, just ask Nathan Sage, one of the two Iowa Democrats vying to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), if he would support Schumer to continue as the leader of Senate Democrats.

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“Hell no,” Sage told reporters last week. “It’s about damn time he seems like he’s starting to fight for us. It’s almost too late at this point.”

Sage is not the only Democrat aspiring to be a senator who is on the record opposing Schumer’s leadership of the caucus. None of Sage’s opponents in the Democratic primary has come out in support of Schumer, and those who have voiced an opinion are against the New York Democrat. 

DEMOCRATS STILL CLUELESS ON BORDER SECURITY

“My opponents, on both sides of the aisle, seem all too happy to defer to an old guard that has failed our state. Not me,” Iowa state Sen. Zach Wahls said in a statement. “It’s time for new leadership.”

Democratic frustration with Schumer stems from the vote he and nine other Democrats — Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Dick Durbin (D-IL), John Fetterman (D-PA), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Angus King (I-ME), Gary Peters (D-MI), Brian Schatz (D-HI), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) — took with Republicans in March to prevent the last government shutdown. 

“Democratic senators should listen to the women,” former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) implored Schumer before the vote. “Democrats must not buy into this false choice. We must fight back for a better way. Listen to the women, For The People.”

Outside liberal groups were furious with Schumer’s vote, hinting that it was time for Schumer to step aside. “He’s done a great deal of damage to the party,” Indivisible co-founder Ezra Levin said at the time, reporting that activists in New York were beginning to “seriously consider if the current [Democratic] leadership is equipped to handle the moment we’re in.” Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founder Adam Green said progressive groups were having “active conversations” about how to make Schumer pay for his vote.

Schumer shrugged off the attacks at the time. “A government shutdown gives Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and DOGE almost complete power as to what to close down, because they can decide what is an essential service,” Schumer explained. “My job as leader is to lead the party, and if there’s going to be danger in the near future, to protect the party. And I’m proud I did it. I knew I did the right thing, and I knew there’d be some disagreements. That’s how it always is.”

But Schumer is singing a different tune now. “The world is totally changed from March,” Schumer said at a recent press conference. “First, people have seen the damage the Republicans are doing. The reconciliation bill just decimated healthcare. Tariffs are now in effect and raising people’s costs.”

“Second, we Democrats had plenty of time to be prepared,” Schumer continued. “Our message has been the same for the last two, three months, which is we need healthcare.”

But how prepared are Democrats really? And how consistent is their message? 

Consider Sen. Chris Murphy’s (D-CT) recent appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. “I think Democrats are united on a couple of simple ideas,” Murphy told Colbert. “We have to stand up for people whose lives will be ruined by these massive healthcare premiums. And we have no moral obligation to pay the bills for democracy’s destruction.”

There is a little bit of a mismatch here. Democrats like Murphy are saying they can’t vote to fund the government because Trump is destroying democracy, but then their request is to continue an existing health insurance subsidy that doesn’t expire until the end of December.

If democracy is being destroyed, how does preventing a slight increase in health insurance premiums three months from now change anything? And if Democrats want to rally around Obamacare subsidies that expire in December, that is something that can be negotiated anytime between now and when the Republican-passed funding extension expires on Nov. 21. Why shut the government down now for something that doesn’t even happen for three months?

As nonsensical as the Democratic Party’s shutdown strategy is, Murphy is right that they are united, at least for now. And outside activist groups are committed to investing significant resources to keep Schumer from caving this time.

“The battle lines that the grassroots of the party is drawing for the grasstops leadership is, hey, you got to be willing to fight,” MoveOn chief communications officer Joel Payne told reporters. The activist Progress Action Fund is spending six figures for an ad pushing Schumer to stand his ground in the government funding battle. Schumer is taking the outside groups seriously this time. His office is reportedly coordinating with them on strategy and messaging.

Whatever work Schumer is doing with outside groups, however, it is not winning him any converts among future Democratic senators. In addition to the Iowa candidates running against Schumer in the primary, candidates in Maine, Michigan, and Illinois have also some out with statements against Schumer.

“People want new Senate leadership more than they want a new senator,” Graham Platner, who is running to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), said. “I appreciate that Schumer is standing up now,” Platner’s opponent Daira Smith Rodriguez said, “We need someone who’s going to keep standing up.”

In Michigan, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who is running to replace Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), agrees. She has said it is time for Schumer to step aside, explaining, “There’s still this idea that Democrats and Republicans are still abiding by the same rules and still believe in the same norms and systems and structure. There seems to be a lack of recognition that this is no longer the Republican Party. This is a MAGA party. And the same approach is not going to work.”

Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-IL) possible replacement Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has similar views. While she acknowledges Schumer is fighting harder this time, she said, “this is too little too late,” adding that “it is time for new ideas and new leadership.”

Ultimately, it will most likely not matter if Schumer caves. Republicans have 53 seats. They only need seven Democratic senators to vote with them to end a shutdown. And they have all the leverage.

Last week, Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought sent a memo to all federal agencies directing them to identify programs, projects, and activities that will not be funded after October 1, and to draft Reduction in Force plans for all personnel involved in those programs. Federal employees furloughed through these RIF plans can then be permanently fired. 

Agencies and programs not affected by the memo include Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits, Department of War activities, air traffic control, and federal law enforcement agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection.

Other agencies more dear to Democrats like the Departments of Education, Health and Human Services, and Housing and Urban Development could see significant firings. These are the exact tactics that Schumer was warning about in March when he said a shutdown would be a “gift” to Trump.

While Democratic activists may want Senate Democrats to hold the line until they win concessions from the Trump administration, there will also be pressure from Democratic constituents to end the pain and to open the government again. And Senate Republicans only need seven Democrats to win. The only questions are which Democrats will cave and how quickly.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has already said he believes the Schumer shutdown is misguided; that is one vote right there. Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Gary Peters (D-MI) both voted with Schumer in March and are retiring next year. They no longer have to face the wrath of the Democratic outside groups and are therefore likely targets. That’s three votes right there.

THE HUGE DEAL TRUMP COULD MAKE TO LOWER ENERGY PRICES

Northeastern Sens. Angus King (I-ME), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) voted with Republicans in March as well, and their purple states give them some breathing room to vote with Republicans again, which would be six votes. Republicans would only need to peel off one more moderate, most likely Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and the Schumer shutdown would be over.

Schumer has no one to blame for his dilemma but himself. Instead of working with his caucus to develop a positive agenda to contrast with the Trump administration, he has taken the easy route, mindlessly pandering to the most radical party activists by calling Republicans a threat to democracy. Schumer is a failed leader, the upcoming shutdown is just the latest example, and the only real question facing Democrats is if they replace him in 2027 or wait till 2029.