In yet another attempt to fray Western nerves, Russia has invented what it describes as an emerging Ukrainian dirty bomb plot. This latest invention attests both to the Kremlin’s expansive imagination and to its strategy to boost Western fears of escalation.
The latest invention?
Gen. Igor Kirillov, head of Russian anti-WMD forces, claims that “operational information” shows that “radiochemical substances continue to be imported into Ukraine … through Poland and Romania.” He insists that the “organizational, logistics and financial issues are personally supervised by the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andrey Ermak.” The general claims these substances could be used to make a “dirty bomb” (a conventional explosive laced with highly radioactive material) to be used in a “false flag” attack (an attack by Ukraine designed to appear as having been carried out by Russia).
Kirillov also says, without offering any evidence, that former Pentagon official Daniel Gerstein is involved in these activities. To cap off this KGB-style conspiracy theory, the general asserts that U.S. pharmaceutical companies are working with Ukrainian officials to test HIV and hepatitis drugs on vulnerable Ukrainians (U.S.-related HIV conspiracy theories were a KGB favorite).
This is silly and very unoriginal Russian agitprop.
Ukraine is not preparing to use dirty bombs. To do so would greatly jeopardize its critical Western support base. Relevant to Russia’s false flag claims, Ukraine also knows that the United States and the United Kingdom would almost certainly be able to establish who actually carried out a dirty bomb attack inside Ukraine. Finally, dirty bombs would have no credible military utility for Ukraine.
But Russia’s dirty bomb rhetoric isn’t about military reality. It’s about playing mind games with the West. Consider Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s own escalation of rhetoric on Tuesday. Speaking at a conference, Ryabkov declared that “We have come to the conclusion that today the risks of a direct armed conflict, including between nuclear powers, are high.” Also chiming in was former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. A centrist now morphed into a hyperbolic social media hawk, Medvedev sought to exacerbate Russia’s escalation propaganda narrative over Sunday’s Crimea beach incident by calling out what he described as American “bastards.”
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The top line is clear. Russia is determined to provoke the West into increasing concerns about possible escalation.
As the November presidential election approaches, we should expect more Russian agitprop targeting the U.S. in particular. Vladimir Putin would prefer former President Donald Trump’s return to office but, at the margin, will hope to further decrease President Joe Biden’s already low-risk appetite in Ukraine due to fear of negative electoral consequences.