The Russian military has announced the start of tactical nuclear weapons exercises. Russia’s Southern Military District, which has its headquarters 60 miles east of Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don, is in charge of these exercises. That command holds responsibility for operations in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula.
These nuclear exercises are primarily designed to intimidate the European Union and the United States against increased support for Ukraine. The exercises likely have a secondary intent of attempting to scare U.S. voters into opposing continued support for Ukraine due to fear of nuclear escalation. This dovetails with Russia’s knowledge that President Joe Biden has shown risk aversion in the face of Russian threats and that GOP presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump has suggested he would reduce support to Ukraine if elected. These factors underline why it will be instructive whether Russia carries out its exercises in Crimea.
Russia says the first part of its exercise will focus on “obtaining special ammunition” for Iskander missile units. Iskander units will then engage in a “secret deployment to the designated position area for preparation for rocket launches.” While air-based exercises may also occur, the key here is the Iskander system. An intermediate-range ballistic missile system that Russia developed in breach of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (Russian breaches of nonproliferation treaties are also occurring in the space, chemical, and biological weapons domains), Iskander systems have intermediate range potential in excess of 1,200 miles.
This brings us back to the Crimea consideration. Russian President Vladimir Putin says these exercises will remind Western leaders of his absolute resolve to defend Russia’s sovereign territory. Because Russia claims Crimea as sovereign Russian territory, exercises on the peninsula would reinforce this argument. But missile ranges also matter greatly here.
After all, Iskander would be in the range of Romania and even Warsaw, Poland from launch positions in the Southern Military District areas of Russia proper. But were Iskander moved to Crimea, it could range onto Berlin, Rome, and Prague. Crucially, while they continue to insist that Iskander is a short-range rather than intermediate-range system limited to about 300 miles, the Russians also know that NATO leaders know they are lying about this. In turn, exercises conducted from Crimea would significantly bolster the political theatrics of these exercises and likely generate more concern in the West. Again, the Russians know this.
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NATO’s response should thus be resolute. The U.S. should do more to associate itself with the resolve of its U.K. and French NATO nuclear partners in the face of Russian threats. Washington should also put more pressure on Germany to find some backbone because, so far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues dancing to Putin’s intimidation waltz. The U.S. and the EU should also draw greater public attention to China’s Xi Jinping as he bolsters Russia while pretending to use his influence to encourage Russia against these nuclear exercises.
Most important of all, however, the U.S. and its nuclear-armed allies should make clear that while they seek no nuclear escalation, it would be Russia, not them, that would cease to exist in the event of a nuclear war.