Deluding himself that Vladimir Putin and his partners, such as Hungary’s Viktor Orban, want to be his friends, former President Donald Trump often puts too much confidence in Putin’s rhetoric. But being that he’s the commander in chief, the leadership buck stops with President Joe Biden. And today at least, it is Biden who is running scared of Putin in Ukraine.
The evidence for that fear is clear. Namely, that the Biden administration continues to reject Ukrainian requests to use U.S.-provided weapons in strikes against military targets inside Russia. We are talking about limited numbers of tactical ballistic missiles and artillery systems here. But Biden’s weakness represents a strategic hesitation that has bedeviled U.S. support for Ukraine since the start of the war. It underlines Biden’s excess fear of Putin’s rhetoric and inadequate recognition of Russian gamesmanship. In so, it indicates Putin’s strategic triumph in holding America’s far greater power in check.
But this is also becoming a problem for American global leadership. After all, Biden’s continued failure to enable Ukraine’s effective self-defense flies in the face of Russian escalations against that country and the West more generally. Volodymyr Zelensky might be a sometimes problematic leader, but his war effort and that of his people are manifestly just and necessary.
Responding to an escalating campaign of Russian covert action in Europe, the United Kingdom recently removed its own restrictions on Ukraine’s use of British weapons against military targets inside Russia. That decision followed a Russian intelligence service-led arson attack on a warehouse in London. An attack that technically constituted an act of war by Russia against a NATO power.
Still, rather than escalate in tandem with Russian escalation — something which is always critical when dealing with the Russians — the Biden administration is instead showing public frustration with London. National security adviser Jake Sullivan gave voice to this annoyance on Wednesday when he responded to the U.K. defense secretary’s claim that China is preparing to support Russia with “lethal aid.” As Sullivan tartly put it, “We have not seen that to date. I look forward to speaking with the U.K. to make sure that we have a common operating picture.”
No one wants a NATO-Russia war. Or at least only idiots do. But most members of Congress now recognize that Putin cannot be allowed to hold U.S. aid to Ukraine hostage with the dangled dagger of nuclear holocaust. The reason not to dance to Russia’s nuclear waltz is the same reason as in the Cold War. First, that the Russian political leadership and general staff are not insane. And second, that U.S. supremacy in nuclear strike capabilities secures effective deterrence. To be clear, where Putin knows of or must take credible fear in the U.S. capacity to turn Russia into the setting for the next Fallout TV series/game, he also knows his nuclear forces would struggle to target much of the U.S. heartland. This is deterrence.
Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine, and the moment it ends its onslaught against Ukraine’s territory and people, Ukrainian attacks on Russian forces will no longer be necessary. Underlining as much, the House Intelligence Committee has now written to the Biden administration calling on them to allow Ukraine to be able to use U.S. weapons inside Russia. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has also made clear his support for a removal of weapon use caveats.
As Johnson put it on Wednesday, “We need to allow Ukraine to prosecute the war as they see fit. They need to be able to fight back and I think us trying to micromanage the effort there is not good policy for us.” Johnson has changed his position on Ukraine because he now has access to the highest level U.S. intelligence briefings. Briefings that show what Putin’s forces are doing, what he seeks to accomplish in Ukraine, and the damage his victory would cause to America’s allies and its credibility.
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It’s time for Ukraine to be given the right to use U.S. weapons to strike or hold at-risk Russian military targets inside Russia. This would significantly assist Ukraine’s war effort, especially around the defense of Kharkiv. At the same time, the U.S. could continue to prohibit the use of American weapons against Russian industry or fuel plants. Ukraine can conduct those attacks with its special forces and drones.
Again, however, the basic point here is that Biden is currently running scared of Putin. That’s not good for Ukraine, for NATO’s eastern flank, for America’s deterrent credibility against China, or for Biden’s oft-made electoral claim that he knows far better how to deal with Putin than does Trump.