Buck Sexton was kind enough to have me on his show on Tuesday to talk about my new book, Sex and the Citizen, President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, and Trump’s plans for mass deportations. The whole 25-minute segment is worth watching, but I did want to revisit why I am cautiously optimistic that deportations will be a winner for Trump politically.

First, let me say that if your expectations are that Trump is going to deport all 12 million to 20 million illegal immigrants in the country, you are going to be sorely disappointed. The capacity to find, detain, and process that many people simply does not exist, and the cost-benefit analysis of quickly creating that capacity simply doesn’t add up.

Second, the possibility that some elements of Trump’s administration may want to push for more draconian levels of deportations is real. Stephen Miller, the architect of the 2017 family separations policy, is part of Trump’s team. That was a grave miscalculation that did not deter migrant families from crossing and only undermined public support for other, more popular border security measures.

That said, I have been encouraged by border czar Tom Homan’s media tour, in which he has been saying his priorities will be deporting criminal illegal immigrants, locking down the border, and finding the migrant minors lost by the Biden administration.

This is the right focus since it aligns with our current federal immigration law enforcement capacity and is politically popular. 

Closing off the flow of new illegal immigrants into the country should be relatively easy. First, Trump can swiftly end President Joe Biden’s illegal CHNV and CBP One parole programs, which have allowed almost 1.5 million illegal immigrants into the country. Second, Trump will have to work with Mexico to reinstate the Remain in Mexico program so that migrants who are caught illegally crossing the southern border are returned to Mexico, not released into the United States. Ramping up the deportation of criminal illegal immigrants will require the redeployment of some personnel and a surge in detention capacity, but those resource needs should be easily met. 

The real challenge with both locking down the border and deporting criminal illegal immigrants is also Trump’s biggest opportunity. Both efforts will give Trump ideal political opponents. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who invited both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro to her inauguration, is an ideal socialist, open-border foil for Trump to battle with as he forces Mexico to do its part in cracking down on the illegal flow of migrants into the U.S.

Democratic governors and mayors pledging not to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers on the detention and removal of criminal illegal immigrants are also dream political opponents. The Los Angeles City Council can’t even pave roads or build functioning bus stops, let alone decrease the homeless population or lower crime. Now, Los Angels Democrats want to prevent ICE from arresting and detaining murdering rapists like Jose Ibarra after they are first arrested for driving without a license and endangering a minor? 

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Let’s have that political fight.

There are over 1 million illegal immigrants in the country who have already had final orders of deportation issued by an immigration judge. Thousands more criminal migrants will be flagged by local law enforcement every year. The Biden administration is deporting just over 50,000 illegal immigrants from the nation’s interior every year. If Trump can up that to 400,000 a year, it would be a huge success both practically and politically.