Could Democrats even pull off an October surprise in this election? It is a question worth asking as the 2024 election approaches and Democrats’ credibility recedes. Never have they needed one more, yet never have they had less ability to pursue one. The reason is twofold: there is seemingly nothing left for Democrats to throw at their opponent, former President Donald Trump, and seemingly no one left to listen but themselves.
Their predicament calls to mind the fable of the boy who cried wolf. Bored, the boy decided to create his own excitement by crying “Wolf!” despite there being none. Naturally, the frightened villagers came running to his aid. Amused at their response and amazed at his own power, he did it again. And again. But as the cries increased and no wolf appeared, the villagers became jaded and finally utterly dismissive. And when a real wolf finally appeared, the boy’s cries were ignored, and he was devoured.
Regarding Trump, Democrats have played the boy’s role to the hilt for eight years. Every scandal imaginable has been hurled at him since he began seeking office in 2016. First it was the Russia collusion hoax, which then spun off investigation after investigation in the legacy media and even in Congress once Democrats took control of the House after the 2018 elections.
Most recently, Democrats have taken their cry of wolf into the judicial system. This has led to four indictments of Trump and now one conviction in New York over an alleged hush money payment. Three more trials against the former president are in different stages of progress.
In between these episodes, Democrats raised countless other cries against Trump. And in a new twist to the old fable, Democrats added the cry of “No wolf!” to instances where there were wolves aplenty — as in Hunter Biden’s laptop (a centerpiece of the embattled first son’s recent conviction) and, apparently, the audio recording of President Joe Biden’s testimony for special counsel Robert Hur, which they are adamant should not be released to the public.
All this brings us to the case of an October surprise. These late revelations and accusations against Trump are meant to inflict maximum damage on his campaign while leaving him minimal time to respond. Democrats need this to work — desperately.
After more than three years in office, Biden’s approval ratings are abysmal. According to RealClearPolitics’s average of national polls, Biden’s approval rating is below 40%. Measured against his 51.3% share of 2020’s popular vote, this drop in approval means Biden is approaching a 12-point loss where the only people supporting him are Democrats (37% of 2020 exit poll respondents identified themselves as Democrats).
Amazingly, he is rated even lower on the most important issues of this election. It is no surprise that he is the lowest rated president at this juncture since at least Harry Truman.
Unable to resuscitate Biden’s ratings with America, Democrats’ only alternative is to drive Trump’s below those of their candidate. And herein lies their problem. Like the boy who cried wolf, they have exhausted their charges and seemingly the patience of those they need to listen.
Democrats have not only discredited themselves, but even their means — the legacy media — of making their accusations. At this point, who besides themselves will believe anything they say against Trump, and who beyond the legacy media will listen?
If Trump’s performance in the polls since his New York hush money trial began is any indication, the answer is no one.
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Trump’s New York hush money trial began on April 15. According to RealClearPolitics’s average of national polling of a two-way race, at that time Trump led Biden 45.2%-44.9%. On June 19, more than two weeks after he was convicted, Trump was leading Biden 45.8%-45%. Trump and his margin have gone up — despite being convicted.
The downside in all this is the loss of checks and balances that our political system is supposed to provide. There are things worthy of examination on both sides. However, by overloading — and underloading — the system, Democrats have negated its ability to do so. They have no one to blame but themselves.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.