If he wants to convince the world that India was involved in an assassination on Canadian soil, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have to declassify intelligence to that effect.
Controversy has followed Trudeau's claim that India was involved in the June 18 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Viewed as an activist in Canada’s Sikh community and a terrorist by the Indian government, Nijjar was gunned down outside of a Sikh temple in a Vancouver suburb. Trudeau's decision to publicly accuse India over the assassination has sparked uproar in New Delhi, which has refused to engage with Ottawa on the substance of its complaints. Trudeau’s declaration has also made the White House uncomfortable, catching Washington between wanting to support a close ally and avoid alienating an increasingly critical strategic partner (it bears noting that Trudeau has undermined his influence with Washington by neglecting Canada’s defense obligations). As U.S.-China tensions escalate, the U.S. has prioritized bolstering its relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government.
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It’s increasingly clear, however, that unless Canada is willing to declassify intelligence to support its claims, those claims will have little impact beyond aggravating India. Underlining that concern, Indian foreign policy commentator Brahma Chellaney observed, "Let's face it: The role of U.S. intelligence in emboldening Trudeau to pick a geopolitical fight with India could have a bearing on the direction of U.S.-India ties, not least by reinforcing India's imperative for strategic autonomy... With neither Ottawa nor Washington willing to present any video, audio or forensic evidence in support, can vague, unsubstantiated allegations about a 'potential' India link to a terrorist's killing serve any purpose, other than to make New Delhi rethink its nascent foreign-policy tilt toward the West?"
Chellaney’s assertion that the U.S. is "emboldening Trudeau to pick a political fight," is almost certainly inaccurate. CBC News reports that Ottawa has signals and human intelligence to support its claims. This supposedly includes “smoking gun” evidence of communications between Indian diplomats (very likely Indian Research and Analysis Wing intelligence officers) in Canada and New Delhi. These communications are presumably intercepted cables, calls or text messages that Canada’s Communications Security Establishment signals intelligence service has successfully decrypted. The New York Times also reports that the U.S. intelligence community has provided Canada with intelligence to support Ottawa's assessment that India was involved in the assassination. Considering Canada's limited global human intelligence collection and the CIA's heavy India-focused lines of effort, it is probable the U.S. CIA was responsible for providing some of the intelligence that CBC News references.
That said, Trudeau’s government must declassify at least some of its intelligence if it wants to have a diplomatic impact. Trudeau’s hesitating weakness has surely encouraged Modi’s government to believe it can ride out this storm even if New Delhi is guilty as charged. After all, facing a foreign democracy gunning down Canadian residents, Trudeau has responded with only the mildest of diplomatic countermeasures: expelling India's Research and Action Wing resident in Ottawa. This correlates with Trudeau’s timid reaction to Chinese espionage scandals in Canada. This weakness makes Trudeau's claims less credible.
While Canada may not be able to declassify human intelligence reporting, the holy grail of espionage, declassifying evidence of Indian diplomatic communications would be less problematic. India's anger over being spied on would be mitigated by the fact that India does the same thing to foreign diplomats in New Delhi. Moreover, India will already have presumed its diplomatic correspondence is a target for the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. It has likely taken measures to further secure diplomatic communications systems in the aftermath of this incident.
There’s more at stake here than this assassination. As it grows in power and influence, India must realize that its Western connections can’t come with unilateral benefits. India’s arrogant response to recent U.S. intelligence and military overtures and its refusal to allow American journalists to travel freely indicate that Modi’s government believes it can reap far more benefits from the West than what it reciprocates. This is not a sustainable path for any durable strategic partnership. If the U.S and its allies are to prioritize India’s interests in foreign relations, and they should, India must provide benefits in kind. At a minimum, it must not wage assassination campaigns in the West.
When Russia conducted a nerve agent centered assassination campaign in the U.K. in 2018, for example, the U.S. rightly joined the U.K. in a mass expulsion of Russian intelligence officers. While that would not be the correct response in this Canadian scenario, Five Eyes common visa restrictions would be appropriate if Canada produces evidence to support its claims. But unless and until that evidence emerges, Trudeau will only look impotent.