The 2024 Senate map experienced some shifts after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not run for reelection next year, putting Republicans in a prime position to flip the balance of power in the upper chamber next year.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the advantage of having Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaker vote if needed. As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party only needs to secure two extra Senate seats.
WHAT THE GOP CAN LEARN FROM 2023
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans — and nearly all competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as they try to maintain their slim majority.
Here’s a breakdown of who’s in, who’s out, and who is left to decide:
Open seats
A total of seven seats are up for grabs in the Senate after a handful of incumbents announced they would not be running for reelection.
The most competitive of these races is the seat being vacated by Manchin in West Virginia, which was initially rated as a "Toss Up" by the Cook Political Report but has now been shifted to “Solid Republican” in his absence. The seat poses a key pickup opportunity for Republicans as they seek to flip the upper chamber.
Other seats being vacated include the one held by Tom Carper (D) in Delaware, Ben Cardin (D) in Maryland, Debbie Stabenow (D) in Michigan, Mike Braun (R) in Indiana, and Mitt Romney (R) in Utah. None of those races are considered particularly competitive, with the exception of Stabenow’s seat in Michigan, which has been rated as “Lean Democrat.”
California also has an open Senate seat after the death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) earlier this year, which has already attracted a crowded Democratic primary field to replace the longest-serving female senator in United States history. Before her death, Feinstein had already announced she would retire from the seat at the end of her term.
Other seats in play
Only two senators up for reelection have not indicated their future plans: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Krysten Sinema (I-AZ).
Should he run for reelection, Sanders is unlikely to face a competitive challenger for his Vermont seat, which he has held since 2007. Sinema, on the other hand, faces tough reelection prospects, with the race being deemed a Toss Up.
Sinema has not yet indicated whether she plans to run for a second term, but the independent senator already faces challenges on both sides of the aisle from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican candidate Kari Lake. Recent polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows Sinema trailing both candidates, putting her at a disadvantage in the possible three-way race.
Who’s running for reelection
Elsewhere on the Senate map, there are 16 Democrats running for reelection and nine Republicans. Of those, five of the Democrats are in races that are deemed to be somewhat competitive, while all Republicans are in relatively safe districts.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces the toughest reelection prospects as he is running in a district that former President Donald Trump won by eight percentage points in 2020. The race has been deemed a Toss Up by the Cook Political Report.
Other Democrats facing competitive races include Sens. Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. All four races are likely to lean Democratic but could be considered competitive depending on who Republicans recruit.
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Democrats running in relatively safe districts include Sens. Bob Menendez in New Jersey, Chris Murphy in Connecticut, Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Martin Heinrich in New Mexico, Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, Tim Kaine in Virginia, and Maria Cantwell in Washington. Independent Sen. Angus King (I-ME), who caucuses with Democrats, is also expected to be safe.
Republicans have a smoother path, with all nine senators up for reelection running in red districts, including Sens. Tim Scott in Florida, Ted Cruz in Texas, Josh Hawley in Missouri, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee.