President Donald Trump is hoping highly anticipated economic data, particularly Wednesday’s second quarter economic growth report, will placate recession “panicans” after the president upended the economy with his tariff and trade policies.

In part, Trump won last year’s election because of the perception that he would be better for the economy after a 40-year-high inflation, at least in comparison to then-Vice President Kamala Harris following four years of former President Joe Biden.

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But six months into his second administration, after stock market turmoil and amid ongoing business uncertainty, Trump has an average net negative approval rating regarding the economy, 42% approve-57% disapprove, according to RealClearPolitics.

For context, Trump’s general average approval is less net negative at 46% approve-51% disapprove.

However, the White House hopes Wednesday’s second-quarter gross domestic product report from the Commerce Department‘s Bureau of Economic Analysis will help change that and quiet so-called “panicans,” Trump’s term for his doubters.

That is because the GDP report is expected to find that the economy expanded at an annual rate of between 2 and 3% during the second quarter of the year, in contrast to contracting by 0.5% during the first three months of 2024.

Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth are widely considered indicative of a recession.

Expectations for a positive GDP report coincide with Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence report, which found its index had improved by 2 points this month to 97.2. However, it remains below its recent high of 111.7, reached last November after the 2024 election.

At the same time, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday that there were 7.4 million job openings last month, a decrease from 7.7 million in May. Although the number of layoffs was relatively unchanged, fewer people resigned from their positions.

More private sector employment data is expected on Wednesday.

Regardless, the White House projected confidence on Tuesday, contending the Trump administration has “embarked on the most pro-growth policy agenda in modern American history that has already delivered robust jobs reports, growing manufacturing output, and trillions in historic investment commitments.”

“And the best is yet to come as our full suite of economic policies continue to take effect: trade deals opening up unprecedented foreign market access, rapid deregulation, and the pro-growth tax cuts of The One Big Beautiful Bill,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told the Washington Examiner.

American Enterprise Institute economic senior fellow and former Salomon Smith Barney managing director Desmond Lachman predicted that if Wednesday’s GDP report finds that economic growth was “around the 3%,” Trump will argue that economists were “overly pessimistic” about the financial consequences of his tariffs.

“He will claim that contrary to the pessimists’ fears that the economy might experience a recession as a consequence of the tariffs, the economy easily coped with the higher tariffs,” Lachman told the Washington Examiner.

But Bipartisan Policy Center retirement and labor policy director Emerson Sprick, who does not expect a recession this year, explained that second-quarter economic growth could be due to lower imports. “As much of the frontrunning finished in Q1, businesses are now in a holding pattern as they wait to see where the administration’s tariffs negotiations end up,” Sprick said.

“It continues to be difficult to draw clear conclusions about tariffs from the inflation and GDP data,” Sprick told the Washington Examiner. “These are lagging indicators in the first place, and the tariff outlook, as I mentioned, continues to be extremely unclear. This means that businesses and consumers don’t have full information to guide their decisions and are likely in more of a holding pattern on spending than anything else.” 

Aside from the policy consequences of the GDP report, there will also be political repercussions more than 12 months before next year’s midterm elections.

“The stats will have an impact on candidate recruitment,” Claremont McKenna College politics professor and former Republican operative John Pitney told the Washington Examiner. “Good numbers will give confidence to the administration and encourage quality GOP candidates. Bad numbers will embolden Democrats and make it easier for them to recruit their best contenders.”

The GDP report is not the only highly anticipated economic data being announced this week, namely Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee decision regarding interest rates and the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, on Thursday.

Interest rates are expected to be held steady despite the immense political pressure Trump is putting on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the fact that the PCE price index increased last month.

That is in addition to Friday’s jobs report, with the Labor Department expected to find that the unemployment rate rose this month and fewer positions were added to the economy than in June.

That is not to mention oral arguments on Thursday in the federal appeals court case regarding Trump’s legal authority for his fentanyl, Liberation Day, and other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, one day before the president’s Aug. 1 deadline for countries to strike trade deals with the U.S. or risk either a 15-20% duty or the levy rate stipulated in personalized letters dispatched earlier this month.

New York University economics professor Mark Gertler underscored the importance of the jobs report and PCE price index, prioritizing those data over the GDP numbers.

“The former gives a real-time indicator of the strength of the labor market and hence where the economy is heading,” Gertler told the Washington Examiner. “The latter, of course, gives a sense of where inflation is likely to be headed. Other indicators, such as GDP Q2, help flesh out where the economy is headed, while hourly wages helps with inflation.”

Gertler, the co-director of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program, added, “Given that the June employment numbers were propped up by a temporary surge in government hiring, it could be that there will be a decline in overall hiring in July relative to June.”

“As for inflation, the full impact of the tariffs is likely to come later in the year, suggesting no dramatic change now,” he said.

Heritage Foundation chief economist EJ Antoni agreed that although macroeconomic indicators, including GDP, are “always closely watched,” the jobs report and PCE price index were “valuable data too.”

To that end, “with so many changes happening in the economy,” Antoni told the Washington Examiner of the “panicans” that “it’s important to take a holistic approach and not cherry pick figures or take data out of context.”

“The same so-called experts who predicted Trump would cause runaway inflation and a recession were also the ones who told us inflation was transitory under Biden,” he told the Washington Examiner. “They’re perpetually wrong but never in doubt. That’ll make it easy for them to ignore even a good GDP report with solid internals.”

Seemingly cognizant of Trump’s economic polling, the White House last week emphasized the president’s perceived economic successes to commemorate the first six months since he returned to office, from inflation and industrial production to customs and tariff revenues and retail sales.

“During his first six months in office, President Trump has repeatedly embarrassed the panicans who predicted doom and gloom, from inflation to recession,” Desai, the White House spokesman, told the Washington Examiner at the time. “The best is yet to come.”