The debate within certain media circles about the Biden administration’s recently finalized vehicle regulations seems fixated on whether the policy constitutes a “ban” on future sales of new gas-powered cars.
This certainly was the case in a recent Politifact post that rated an ad by our organization, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, as “false” for describing the Environmental Protection Agency’s regulation as having “banned most new gas-powered cars.”
The decision to label our ad “false” was based on the writer’s view that the Biden administration’s rule “would only reduce fleetwide emissions for cars and trucks, allowing for the continued production of gas cars.”
However, the very next sentence from Politifact acknowledges exactly what our ads explain: “The regulation would likely greatly diminish the production of new gas-powered vehicles starting in 2027.” In fact, the EPA’s own table of compliance scenarios on page 15 of its regulation makes clear that gas cars, by 2032, are likely to be capped to no more than 29% of total new vehicle sales. And for the new gas cars that remain in 2032, prices are likely to be out of reach for most people.
And yet consumer preferences make clear that gas-powered vehicles are what people want. Electric vehicles make up less than 2% of registered vehicles, despite nearly two decades of heavy federal incentives spurring their adoption. Last year, EVs accounted for just 7.6% of new vehicle sales, while traditional gas-powered cars accounted for 84%. Gas pickup trucks and SUVs dominated the top 10 cars sold nationally.
It’s true that consumers are buying more EVs than ever before, but at nowhere near the levels the Biden administration would like. This year, EV sales are lagging, and consumers are expressing reluctance to go all-electric, with a new Gallup poll finding close to 50% of Americans do not want to purchase an EV.
To overcome the will of consumers and grow EVs and plug-in hybrids from less than 10% of all new car sales to nearly 70% in less than eight years, which is the EPA’s compliance Pathway A, the Biden administration isn’t using carrots. And one of its biggest sticks is the EPA’s new tailpipe standards, which are intentionally set to force automakers to cut back on the availability of new gas-powered cars. Again, this is something Politifact acknowledged: “To meet the new standards, manufacturers would likely accelerate the production of electric vehicles and decrease the production of gas vehicles, according to the EPA.”
The EPA’s standards for fleetwide vehicle emissions are not tech-neutral — not by a long shot. If the 85 grams per mile emissions standard that EPA finalized for 2032 were applied across today’s new vehicles, not a single gas, diesel, or traditional hybrid car would make the cut on its own. Only five of today’s plug-in hybrid models would meet the standard. And because the Biden EPA only considers one category of emissions when evaluating the environmental impact of vehicles, its regulation would allow an entire fleet of giant Cybertrucks and e-Hummers and would consider those cars as having zero emissions, while a fleet made up entirely of traditional Priuses would be penalized.
If the adoption of a government rule requires companies to make far less of a product than consumers want, most people using common sense would agree the policy constitutes a ban. It is not a total ban, unlike California’s 2035 policy, which the Biden EPA also embraces, but it is certainly a significant ban if it means having to quickly and sharply cut the supply of new gas cars from 84% to less than 30% in a few short years.
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The critical problem missed by focusing just on the word “ban” is how this unlawful and un-American policy will affect consumers. People do not want the government banning or otherwise limiting their access to cars of any type, which this regulation is designed to do, and they certainly don’t want the government to further raise vehicle and transportation costs on top of record inflation.
This administration, in trying to fulfill a 2020 promise to push for 100% EV sales, is taking steps to eliminate most new gas cars. People need to know this is happening, and the administration needs to start answering for it.
Chet Thompson is president and CEO of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers. He previously served as deputy general counsel for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the George W. Bush administration and was a partner at Crowell and Moring, where he chaired the Environment and Natural Resources Group.