WHAT YOUNGKIN WOULD BRING TO A TRUMP TICKET. Who knows where the buzz around possible Trump vice presidential picks comes from? Is it real? It is bad phone tag? Is it somebody’s self-promotion? It’s hard to tell.
In any event, buzz seems to be increasing around Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), who has been up and down in the veepstakes but never in the top two or three contenders. But put aside whether the buzz is true and ask: Would the governor of Virginia bring something valuable to the ticket?
That would depend, of course, whether putting Youngkin on the ticket would mean former President Donald Trump wins Virginia. If not, Youngkin does not have a huge advantage over any of the other contenders. But if so, Youngkin would be an extremely valuable addition to the ticket.
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Virginia has not voted for a Republican for president for 20 years — George W. Bush in 2004 was the last GOP candidate to win the state. Joe Biden won it in 2020. But there are some polls now, including one from Fox News, that show Biden and Trump dead even. If Trump could win Virginia, that would upset the Electoral College math in his favor.
Here is the most conventional way for Trump to win the presidency. First, he wins all the states he won in 2020, which he can probably do. Then he needs to win Georgia and Arizona, where he is looking strong. But then, he needs to win one more state. (Nevada, which Trump might well win, does not have enough electoral votes to do it; even with Nevada, he would still be two votes short of victory.)
In this scenario, if Trump wins the 2020 states and Georgia and Arizona, he would then have to win one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin to win the White House. He wins just one of them and he will be the next president.
But what if he doesn’t win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin? Then there’s the Virginia scenario. This is it: If Trump wins the 2020 states and Georgia and Arizona and then wins Virginia — if he does that, he does not have to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. He can lose them all and still become president.
Now, there is no guarantee that picking Youngkin would ensure Trump winning Virginia. But there is also no doubt that being competitive in Virginia would give Trump one more very viable path to winning the presidency.