On Tuesday, we will see the one and only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) will engage Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH). It likely will be the last direct interaction between the campaigns, as an additional presidential debate seems highly unlikely.
Over the course of history, vice presidential interactions don’t tend to make much of a difference. The first vice presidential debate took place in 1976, when Jimmy Carter’s running mate, Walter Mondale, squared off against Bob Dole, who ran with President Gerald Ford. It likely did not move the needle either way.
In 1988, Lloyd Bentsen got a famous zinger in against Dan Quayle: “You’re no Jack Kennedy.” Quayle then got elected with George H.W. Bush in a landslide.
Then-Vice President Joe Biden likely did some good for Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign when he aggressively jeered at Mitt Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan. But those moments hardly determined the election.
Still, we should take the time to watch this debate. First, the 2024 election seems to be a very close one. While the Walz-Vance matchup probably won’t move a lot of votes, even shifting a few could matter this time. Can either candidate energize their base or reassure fence-sitters?
Second, it will be interesting to see these men square off based on their roles in the campaign to this point. Walz and Vance have played the role of sharp critic of the top of the other ticket. Now they will go at it face-to-face. Walz has not shown himself a particularly skillful debater in the past. Vance has not only a hard edge but a quick wit, which, properly disciplined, could prove especially effective in this format.
Along the same lines, this debate will force the two men to defend their own records a bit more. Walz should be confronted over his weak and enabling response during the rioting of 2020 during his first term as Minnesota governor. Vance should have to address some of his most incendiary comments that, at times, read more like an anonymous online troll than a sitting senator and prospective vice president.
Third, we should look to see how each man sees the role of the office he aspires to fill. What exactly does a vice president do other than stand in line ready to replace the president if needed?
Constitutionally, the answer is little other than voting to break ties in the Senate. However, the office has developed much over the centuries to now encompass significant domestic and foreign duties. How well do these men stack up to that job of assisting the president?
Fourth, we especially should watch this debate to assess Vance. He is young and should remain a major player in national politics for some time. And we also must not forget that former President Donald Trump is 78. His mental faculties do not seem to have faded anywhere approaching those of President Joe Biden. However, four years is a long time for someone that age. Much can change.
That isn’t a prediction of a future President Trump’s utter mental collapse. It is a realistic recognition that a Vice President Vance could have an outsize role to play in directing our nation.
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Perhaps this vice presidential debate will be the exception that proves the rule, making a distinct difference in the outcome. But, as noted above, don’t count on it. Instead, the debate likely will further cement the partisan lines we have seen well-developed already in this election.
Yet, we still have reasons to watch. One of these men will soon occupy a powerful seat in politics. And that same man will be in the front of the line to one day take his running mate’s place in the most powerful office in the world.
Adam Carrington is an associate professor at Ashland University.