Wednesday marks "Transition Day" for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, when all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will expire.
Occurring five years after the deal's adoption in 2015, Transition Day comes at a time when the Middle East has devolved into chaos. Iran is under a microscope for its alleged support of terrorist organizations like Hamas for its attacks on Israel, which turned into a full-scale war last week.
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Here is what to know about the Iran nuclear deal, what Transition Day means, and where the United States and its allies will go from here.
A timeline of JCPOA
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was an agreement reached in 2015 between Iran, the United Kingdom, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the U.S., or the P5+1. The deal limited Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and was endorsed by the United Nations Security Resolution 2231.
July 14, 2015, or "Finalization Day," represented the conclusion of the agreement. Iran and the U.S. began domestic reviews of the JCPOA. Iran provided the International Atomic Energy Agency with information the agency needed to complete its investigation into the nation's previous nuclear weapon development.
The agreement was adopted on Oct. 18, 2015. On this day, Iran and the P5+1 (permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) began taking steps to meet the commitments of the agreement.
On Jan. 16, 2015, or "Implementation Day," the IAEA certified that Iran took the necessary steps to restrict its nuclear program and put increased monitoring in place. The IAEA's certification triggered sanctions relief from the U.S., European Union, and U.N..
What is Transition Day?
There are many actions expected by multiple parties on Transition Day. On Wednesday, the U.N. will lift missile restrictions, Iran will seek ratification of its additional protocol, the EU will terminate all remaining nuclear sanctions, and the U.S. will remove certain entities from the sanctioned list and seek legislative termination of certain sanctions, according to the Arms Control Association.
What was the point of the Iran nuclear deal?
The goal of the JCPOA was to unwind Iran's nuclear program so that it would take at least one year to for the nation to pursue a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence officials said in the absence of the agreement, Iran could produce enough material to make a nuclear weapon in a few months, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Negotiating nations also believed that Iran's moves to become a nuclear weapons strong arm would thrust the Middle East into further crisis. At the time, the P5+1 worried that Israel would take preemptive strikes against Iran's suspected military facilities as the Jewish state did in Iraq and Syria, which would possibly trigger a response from Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group. Saudi Arabia had indicated in 2018 its willingness to obtain a nuclear weapon if Iran successfully detonates one.
What did Iran agree to?
Iran agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium or plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon. Its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities could also only pursue civilian work, including medical and industrial research.
The Islamic State also agreed to allow IAEA inspectors unfettered access to its nuclear facilities and undeclared sites. The inspections were necessary to guard against the possibility that Iran could work on creating a nuclear weapon in secret.
The U.S.'s role in the Iran nuclear deal
The deal nearly collapsed in 2018 after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstated banking and oil sanctions on Iran. Following the U.S.'s withdrawal, several countries, including U.S. allies, continued to import Iranian oil using waivers issued by the Trump administration.
A year later, the U.S. ended the waivers to halt Iranian oil exports completely.
The Biden administration has sought to restore the agreement, and a deal was reportedly near to being concluded in summer 2022. Formal talks have since stalled, although neither side has said they have failed, according to the House of Commons Library.
However, reports emerged in June 2023 that Washington and Tehran were nearing an informal agreement that would have Iran limit uranium enrichment to 60% and release several American prisoners. In return, the United States would free some frozen Iranian assets and refrain from pushing for new sanctions or U.N. resolutions against Iran.
Then, on Sept. 11, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. would unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds as part of a prisoner swap. This move has been met with severe criticism from Republicans, particularly after Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel. While the White House has rebutted the claim that the unfrozen Iranian funds can be used to aid Hamas, House GOP lawmakers are pushing a bill that calls for an immediate refreezing of the $6 billion.
How nations are responding to Transition Day
The U.S. State Department, along with the Proliferation Security Initiative-endorsing States, released a joint statement on the expiration of restrictions on Iran's missile program on Wednesday.
"The proliferation of WMD and their delivery systems continues to pose a significant threat to international security," the nations wrote. "In this environment, Iran’s missile program remains one of the greatest challenges to international nonproliferation efforts."
"Resolution 2231 (2015) was based on the assumption that Iran would take the necessary steps towards restoring confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program. This has not happened," the nations continued. "In this context, it is imperative that all States continue to take steps to counter Iran’s destabilizing ballistic missile-related activities through ongoing counterproliferation cooperation."
The nations agreed to "counter destabilizing Iranian missile- and UAV-related activities" and take "all necessary measures to prevent the supply, sale, or transfer of ballistic missile-related items, materials, equipment, goods, and technology, to protect peace and stability in the region and beyond."
On the other side, Russia said it no longer needs to obey U.N. Security Council restrictions on giving missile technology to Iran.
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"Supplies to and from Iran of products falling under the Missile Technology Control Regime no longer require prior approval by the U.N. Security Council," Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday via Reuters.
Iran has become a close ally of Russia since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and has received widespread shaming from Western nations. Many of the hundreds of one-way attack drones Russia has used to bomb Ukraine within the last year are believed to have been made in Iran, as well.