The United Kingdom is holding elections for every seat in the House of Commons this week, with a major shift expected in British politics.
As the United Kingdom holds its first parliamentary election in nearly five years, here is what to know about the pivotal race that will determine the immediate future of one of the United States‘s closest allies.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a member of the Conservative Party, announced on May 22 that elections would be held on July 4 — the same day in 1776 that the U.S. declared independence from the United Kingdom.
The last parliamentary election took place on Dec. 12, 2019, and the Electoral Commission had specified that an election was required to happen by Jan. 28, 2025 — 25 working days after the fifth anniversary of the current government’s first meeting.
The election is the first since the United Kingdom left the European Union in early 2020 and since the coronavirus pandemic. Conservatives boosted their majority in the last election, which was done as a snap election after a lack of progress on a withdrawal agreement from the European Union.
Dogged by low approval ratings, Conservatives pushed this election to nearly as late as was legally allowed, in a departure from the past several elections.
The winning party in the July election could be leading the United Kingdom for up to the next five years. Currently, the Conservatives hold 344 seats in the 650 seat chamber, with the Labour Party having the second-largest presence with 205 seats.
The Labour Party, which has not been in the majority since 2010, is heavily favored to win a commanding majority in the election.
A forecast from the Economist released the week before the election predicts that Labour will get 429 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 117 seats, the Liberal Democrats getting 42 seats, and the Scottish National Party winning 23 seats.
The outlet also predicts that there is a 98% chance of Labour winning a majority – 326 seats – and a 2% chance of Labour being the largest party but not a majority, with less than a 1% chance of either the Conservatives holding onto the majority or being the largest party.
A victory by the Labour Party would likely see Keir Starmer become Prime Minister, and mark a leftward shift in the United Kingdom.
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The next election will be sometime before August 2029, but unlike in the U.S., there is no set date for the election. The U.K. election is scheduled for July 4.