Visiting North Korea on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a cooperation agreement with dictator Kim Jong Un. The North Korean leader threw out the red carpet for Putin, assembling thousands of children, dancers, and soldiers to fete him with an extravagant parade. Pomp aside, however, the two leaders each had one specific objective.
Putin wants North Korea’s increased supply of ammunition, weapons, and likely also North Korean soldiers for use in his war against Ukraine. He needs this support as Russian casualties continue to mount and Russian forces continue to expend vast amounts of ammunition. On the flip side, Kim wants Russia’s increased supply of technical expertise to further develop his ballistic missile program. He wants to be able to credibly hold the United States at risk of a nuclear strike. Kim believes this would assure his regime stability and secure his greater leverage over the U.S. and South Korea via the dangle of a nuclear holocaust.
More broadly, Kim and Putin want to keep the U.S. off balance. That’s why part of their cooperation agreement, Putin said, “provides for the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement.” This statement has given rise to some concern that North Korea and Russia have reached a mutual defense commitment, a commitment that sees a U.S.-Russia war follow any future U.S. military strikes on North Korea’s nuclear or ballistic missile program.
These concerns are misplaced. For one, “provides for the provision” is absolutely not the same thing as a treaty obligation to provide defensive assistance. More importantly, there is no way that Putin is going to risk a catastrophic war with the U.S. on the temperament of an eccentric North Korean dictator. The exigent nuclear weapons factor underpinning U.S.-North Korean tensions will make Putin’s caution particularly important. He knows that if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, the U.S. may well use nuclear weapons against North Korea. He doesn’t want a part of that party because he knows it might well end up in Russia becoming one big radioactive scrap yard.
Top line: Putin is no idiot. He knows that the risks of a Russian intervention in North Korea’s favor would be far outweighed by any possible gains. He knows that North Korea could not defeat South Korea and the U.S. in a military conflict. He knows his military could not significantly alter the balance of power in North Korea’s favor. And he knows that were Russia to intervene even in a limited manner and even if the war did not go nuclear, he would open his forces to devastating losses. The Russian Pacific Fleet, for example, a prized point of pride for Putin and Russia, is just 81 miles from North Korea’s northeastern border. It would be annihilated in the event of a Russian intervention.
That said, in providing this agreement to Kim, Putin secured three political wins. First, he secures Kim’s gratitude for what the dictator will present at home and abroad as a victory of his supreme diplomatic skills. In turn, Putin will likely secure Kim’s increased willingness to provide greater support for Russia’s war effort against Ukraine.
Second, Putin bolsters China’s effort to undermine U.S. alliances and influence building in the Pacific. Strengthening the Russia-North Korea partnership, Putin has given China new means of suggesting that it has a growing power base via which to deter U.S. military intervention against a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan or distract U.S. forces. This is a growing U.S. concern.
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Third, Putin will hope that this agreement will scare the West. He will present this agreement as a response to growing Western support for Ukraine and as evidence that this Western support is increasing the risk of another world war. Putin will hope this propaganda narrative has increasing value in the aftermath of the recent European Union elections and amid the approaching U.S. presidential election. Putin’s central interest here is a reduced Western popular appetite for supporting Ukraine.
Still, this is not a mutual defense agreement of the kind that underpins the U.S.-Philippines defense treaty or NATO‘s Article Five. It is a Putin gambit focused most on the war in Ukraine.