Iran is weighing how to respond to the U.S. military’s unprecedented attack on its nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. On Monday, Iran’s initial response appeared to take shape, with the regime launching missiles at U.S. bases in the Middle East, namely the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

The U.S. military’s surprise bombing, carried out by B-2 bombers, targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities — Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Details about the degradation of those facilities and their stockpiles remain largely unknown, but could affect how Iran chooses to respond.

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U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have warned that an Iranian response would incur an even stronger retaliation from the United States.

“ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT,” Trump said on social media.

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz

Iran could block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas route connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

The strait, which is about 100 miles long and 21 miles wide, handles about a quarter of the world’s oil trade, and disruptions in the supply chain there would likely increase global oil prices.

U.S. officials have preemptively warned Tehran not to go this route.

“I can assure you the administration is actively and closely monitoring the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime would be foolish to make that decision,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday.

Similarly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that such a move would be “the worst mistake they’ve ever made.”

Attacking US bases and embassies in the region

Iran’s initial response to the U.S. strikes appears to be focused on targeting U.S. military bases and embassies in the Middle East.

Tehran’s proxies, including militias in Iraq and Syria that have fired at U.S. bases in those countries repeatedly since Israel’s war in Gaza broke out, could also resume those attacks.

On Monday, a senior White House official told the Washington Examiner, “The White House and the Department of Defense are aware of, and closely monitoring, potential threats to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.”

There are roughly 40,000 U.S. service members in the region.

“Ultimately, wherever it may be, whether it’s in Iraq or Syria or bases in the Gulf, as the president said it would be, or excuse me, as [Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine] said, it would be a very bad idea for Iran or its proxies to attempt to attack American forces,” Hegseth told reporters on Sunday.

The effectiveness of the U.S. strikes remains largely unknown despite overwhelming praise from leaders.

While Caine said the mission resulted in “extremely severe damage,” he also said it’s “way too early” to assess if Iran still has nuclear capabilities.

The United States Embassy in Qatar issued a warning to Americans in the Gulf country on Monday to “shelter in place until further notice,” while the State Department also issued a Worldwide Caution alert noting “the potential for demonstrations against U.S. citizens and interests abroad.”

“What I will say is we’re being proactive and not reactive and being very thoughtful about ensuring that we do all that we can to protect our forces out there,” Caine added.

Israel has largely destroyed Iran’s proxy forces aside from the militias over the last year and a half — Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the U.S. has targeted the Houthis in Yemen — making their participation in a possible Iranian response less likely. The groups have largely remained quiet in the week and a half since Israel launched its operation against Iran.

Domestic attacks on the homeland

The Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin on Sunday that acknowledged “the ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States.”

“The likelihood of violent extremists in the Homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the Homeland,” it continued. “Multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to US-based individuals plotting additional attacks.”

The National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin has an expiration date of three months from its issuance.

Border czar Tom Homan also warned on Sunday that “some terrorists have crossed that border” under the previous administration’s immigration policies, adding, “We’d be a fool to think zero crossed.”

Continued attacks on Israel

Iran could launch another round of missile strikes at Israel to respond to the U.S.’s involvement in an attempt to prevent another U.S. attack.

Tehran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel, the overwhelming majority of which have been intercepted, though a handful have evaded Israel’s air defense systems. Dozens of Israelis have been killed in those attacks, while Israel’s strikes have killed hundreds.

Israel carried out a new round of strikes against Iran on Monday following the U.S. attack.

“The Zionist enemy has made a big mistake, committed a big crime,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, said Sunday. “It must be punished, and it is being punished; it is being punished right now.”

Returning to the negotiating table

Trump wanted Iran to engage with the diplomatic efforts to constrain its nuclear program since the start of his second term. He warned repeatedly that he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon and gave the negotiations 60 days to work. Israel launched its opening attack one day after that period expired.

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Facing the devastation from both the U.S. and Israel’s attacks, Iran could choose to go back to the negotiating table, now that it’s facing its most tenuous grip on power in decades.

Just days before the U.S. conducted its operation, Iran’s foreign minister met with European leaders in an attempt to decrease tension in the region.