


The dollar weakened this week in response to President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, a troubling sign for the administration and consumers.
On Wednesday, Trump announced 10% tariffs on all imports and higher tariffs on certain countries based on trade deficits. The historic announcement sent reverberations through the global economy, but the U.S. dollar fell instead of rising as a result of more tariffs, a development that could indicate fears of a recession.
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The dollar index was at about 104.20 on Wednesday and dropped to just over 101 by the following day. While the greenback has strengthened a bit since then, it is still lower than it was before Trump announced the tariffs. In fact, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped as much as 2.1%, the biggest intraday decline since it was launched two decades ago.
Typically, it would be expected that imposing tariffs would cause the dollar to rise. That could be seen as an offset or buffer to the harm tariffs cause consumers.
If the U.S. imposes tariffs on imports, that can make foreign goods more expensive, but a stronger dollar cuts the other way and could make imported goods cheaper — part of why Trump officials might not have been so concerned with the effect on consumers.
Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told the Washington Examiner that among the factors behind the depreciation is the prospect that the economy is weakening and that the odds of a recession are rising. There is also uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve might do next.
Hamrick pointed out that when the dollar weakens, U.S. goods and services become cheaper for foreign buyers, which can lead to an increase in demand for U.S. exports.
“Of course, a weaker dollar also means that — leaving tariffs aside for the moment — imports become more expensive for U.S. businesses and consumers, that can lead to increased costs for foreign goods and then result in higher prices for consumers on imported products,” Hamrick said.
The stock market speaks to the volatility and fear that is driving investment right now.
During trading on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 2,200 points at one point. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had seen more than 5% of their value erased on Friday alone.
Generalized anxiety on Wall Street is captured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, better known as VIX, but also as the “fear index.” Notably, the VIX was up about 47% on Friday alone. It is up more than 83% over the past five days, showing the highest degree of fear since the pandemic.
Recession indicators are also flashing red.
JP Morgan analysts put the chance of a global recession at 60% over the coming year if the tariffs are sustained. That is up from 40% before Trump announced the sweeping tariffs. Goldman Sachs increased its projected odds of a recession from 20% to 35%.
“The increase in our recession probability reflects the sharp deterioration in household and business confidence in the outlook over the last month,” the firm said in a report.
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U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices plunged nearly 7% on Friday, while Brent crude oil, which is an international benchmark for oil prices, was down 5.7%.
One unique recession indicator, copper, was also down. Copper has proven over centuries to be a procyclical commodity, which means that when its price goes up, so typically goes the economy. Copper futures were down 8.85% on Friday.