To nearly everyone’s concern, the U.S. economy is still recovering from the combined effects of the devastating 2008 recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, which was followed by a severe and unusual 2020 recession and a serious, lingering bout of inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars that, in addition to the horrible death and destruction generated, have disrupted global energy markets and rearranged trading patterns worldwide.

As difficult as it will be, now is the time to change our mindset. We need to do more than reactively deal with the crises of the moment. To improve the prospects for America’s future prosperity, we need to focus significant attention on long-run economic fundamentals.

For years, the nation has been caught in a blizzard of these short-run crises. Like wildfires that must be controlled, the recurring emergencies tend to generate a bunker mentality that allows pundits, activists, and elected officials to exaggerate the importance of government command and control. As a result, instead of paying what might be called a prudent amount of attention to short-run problems, we treat them with excessive attention. 

With attention biased to the short run, low priority is given to longer-term, bedrock issues, such as the threatened viability of Social Security and Medicare, the exploding federal debt, the economic drag imposed by obsolete environmental and immigration statutes, or the need to re-organize government to better respond to artificial intelligence opportunities, cyberattacks, and growing regional conflicts over water supply.

I believe this is the time to pause, take a deep breath, and — with government agencies joining in —open a yearlong national conversation on what matters for our long-run prosperity.  

That’s not to say we should ignore the past. To the contrary, we should seek to understand it. The 2008 recession eventually generated a 10% unemployment rate, laid waste to financial institutions, and spurred sharp revisions to U.S. financial market regulation. There were bank panics. The house was on fire. 

Then, with resulting institutional change still in progress a decade later, the pandemic led to shutdowns of large swaths of the economy and delivered a 2020 recession with resulting unemployment hitting 14.7%. 

COVID shutdowns also inspired the rise of at-home work habits that have upended parts of the economy and are not likely to change.

The cumulative effects of these two recessions and disruptions were accompanied by unprecedented federal efforts to send trillions in deficit-financed cash to beleaguered citizens and businesses— for-profit and nonprofit alike. The flood of printing-press dollars contributed to high levels of inflation that was followed by Federal Reserve efforts to bring it down by way of stifling higher interest rates.

Given all this, and given the obvious political and social divisions among Americans, how exactly do we go about organizing a national conversation on prosperity priorities?

There are two past efforts to consider. First, in 1945, when Harry Truman was sworn in as president, the U.S. economy was challenged by a massive transition from war to peace and the return of more than 13 million veterans. President Truman called on Congress to organize hearings on taxation, spending, inflation, and the conversion of government-owned war production facilities to peacetime operations.

Truman also asked for a fundamental reorganization of the executive branch and cooperated with Congress in the 1946 development of the Council of Economic Advisors and Joint Economic Committee, which would monitor and report on the forthcoming transition process.

At times, the Truman-era reforms looked like one step forward and two back — after all, we are talking about democracy, which is messy — but the related hearings and conversations invigorated new thoughts on how government might become more effective. They also led to the modernization of executive branch agencies and identification of new priorities for prosperity.

Taken together, these actions and the way America’s economy responded when released from its bounds delivered a prosperous transition without devastating unemployment and inflation. In 1943, future Nobel Prize economics laureate Paul Samuelson had predicted that without continued wartime regulation, we would experience “the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced.” None of that happened.

In 1975, just 30 years after President Truman’s hay days, the “accidental president,” Gerald Ford, had to deal with 12.2% inflation following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, an economy operating with a system of clunky wage and price controls, and a nation shocked by Watergate and the failed Richard Nixon presidency. Ford called for a national conversation on inflation and other problems.

Hearings were held in each state and the findings were shared with the American people. I participated in one of those hearings and later worked with many others in the next two administrations to bring to fruition some of Ford’s regulatory reform commitments.

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During those years, price controls were lifted, airline and natural gas pricing were completely deregulated, the Civil Aeronautics Board closed, major functions of the Interstate Commerce Commission eliminated, and the Federal Trade Commission accelerated active national fraud prevention and consumer advocacy programs.

History suggests the prospects for prosperity can be improved. Once again, this is the time to open a vigorous conversation about the nation’s future and develop a positive agenda for long-term prosperity. Let’s hope the conversation begins soon.

Bruce Yandle is a distinguished adjunct fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, dean emeritus of the Clemson College of Business and Behavioral Sciences, and a former executive director of the Federal Trade Commission