Progressives are demanding that the Democratic Party shift its position on Israel, and President Joe Biden is listening.
From college campuses across the country to the halls of Congress, the far Left is moving away from Israel in its war with Hamas. As a result, Biden sees his base of support decreasing.
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In a struggle between consistency and the presidency, Biden’s past offers little comfort to Israel and its allies.
On Oct. 7, Biden’s first words in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel were clear: “Today, the people of Israel are under attack, orchestrated by a terrorist organization, Hamas. In this moment of tragedy, I want to say to them and to the world and to terrorists everywhere that the United States stands with Israel. We will not ever fail to have their back.”
A week later, on Oct. 15, he was asked if Hamas must be eliminated entirely. Biden responded, "Yes, I do. But there needs to be a Palestinian authority. There needs to be a path to a Palestinian state.”
The progressive Left answered. On Oct. 16, a group of 13 progressive House Members introduced a resolution urging a ceasefire in Gaza. A day later, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), who had joined in the resolution, wrote on X (the social media website once known as Twitter) to Biden: "Your war and destruction only approach has opened my eyes and many Palestinian Americans and Muslims Americans like me," she said. "We will remember where you stood."
Then, on Oct. 25, in an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, the House passed a resolution supporting Israel and condemning “Hamas’s brutal war against Israel.” Fifteen House progressives refused to vote for it, and nine voted against it.
Writing on X the next day, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) wrote: “Last night, 15 of my Democratic colleagues voted AGAINST standing with our ally Israel and condemning Hamas terrorists who brutally murdered, raped, and kidnapped babies, children, men, women, and elderly, including Americans. They are despicable and do not speak for our party.”
Rep. Andre Carson (D-IN) was quick to respond on CNN: “There are Americans out there who are deeply opposed to what’s happening. And if he wants to call us despicable, I’m saying he’s a coward. And he’s a punk, and he should remember why the people sent him here, and if he wants to play some kind of tough guy, a gangster — we can handle it like gentlemen, or we can get into something else.”
The progressive Left has been clear in its vehemence and has hardly tried to veil its threats. On Oct. 29, for example, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who heads the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said about Biden’s position on the Israel response to Hamas: “He is, I think, you know, going to be challenged to explain an issue of this moral significance to people. The American people are actually quite far away from where the president and even Congress, the majority of Congress, has been on Israel and Gaza. … I think the president has to be careful about that.”
Although Gottheimer and other centrist Democrats have insisted that the 15 progressives who did not support the House’s bipartisan resolution against Hamas “do not speak for our party,” they are certainly speaking to it — in no uncertain terms.
Sadly, Biden is listening. Just look at the White House’s Wednesday statement announcing that the administration “will develop the first-ever U.S. National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia in the United States.” Antisemitic attacks are rampant in American cities and on college campuses, and everywhere Israeli hostage posters are being ripped to the ground, but Biden feels that what is called for now, above all else, is “the first-ever U.S. National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia in the United States.”
Biden is heralding this bald-faced hypocrisy as his policy because his base of support is small and dwindling — rapidly. According to the RealClearPolitics Nov. 1(the same day as the administration’s announcement on Islamophobia) average of national polling, Biden’s approval rating stood at a negative 15.2 percentage points (40.7%-55.9%) — his biggest deficit in three months. His favorability rating was similarly poor: a negative 13.5 points (41.5% to 55%).
And he trailed Trump in rematch polling, 44.9% to 45.4%. This is worse than it looks, considering that Biden needed a 4.4-point margin of victory in the popular vote to squeak out a 2020 win in the Electoral College.
With such bad numbers, Biden can ill afford to lose any Democrat support — from anywhere. And this includes the progressive Left, who, while they may not speak for the Democratic Party, are speaking very loudly in it — and in increasing numbers. The Congressional Progressive Caucus has 103 House members in it. According to the Pew Research Center’s 2021 data, 12% of the Democrats’ electoral coalition identify as progressive Left.
Without a drastic change in his poor numbers, Biden will need solid support from the progressive Left if he is to have any hope of holding the White House next year.
Biden also has a long history of drastically shifting his position to the Left when he feels it is politically expedient to do so. Biden has switched his position on abortion (the Hyde amendment), gay marriage, the “don’t ask, don’t tell” military policy, welfare (he voted for the Welfare Reform Bill in 1996), and crime.
One position that has held solidly for decades is his belief that he should be president. Biden’s first run for the White House was in 1988. On his third try, he won it, and on his fourth run, he intends to hold on to it.
The fissures that Israel’s self-defense is opening within the party are painful for Democrats. For Biden, these fissures are also practical: He must have progressive Left votes in 2024. This is the precarious political scale on which Israel’s existential conflict now sways.
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J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and was the director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023.