Wishful thinking about Russia has dominated U.S. policy circles since the collapse of the Soviet Union over 30 years ago. As Russia’s failing invasion of Ukraine drags on, Washington is at risk of repeating its mistakes. Current and former officials, together with some European leaders, continue to believe that after President Vladimir Putin’s demise, a cooperative relationship can be established and Moscow will start behaving as a responsible international player. A series of deep-rooted illusions form the core of this misguided approach.
The first illusion has been the belief that Russia is post-imperial because it is post-communist. Communism and Sovietism became valuable covers for Russian imperialism as Moscow extended its control over half of Europe in the wake of World War II. But Russia’s imperial ambitions are much more durable than its ideological veneers, as its attempts to absorb and eradicate Ukraine have demonstrated. Communism was also useful to promote anti-Americanism, and the Putin regime has continued to manipulate public opinion against the U.S., especially in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
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The second Washington policy illusion is a fixation on individual Kremlin leaders. Whenever a new head of state emerges, he is courted as a fresh opportunity for cooperation. For years, presidents Putin and Dmitry Medvedev were depicted as “pragmatists” and “reformers” by gullible U.S. officials who failed to decipher Kremlin ambitions even after the invasions of Georgia and Ukraine. The current danger is that Putin’s replacement in the wake of a failed war will be hailed in Washington as America’s next great hope for “normalization” until he launches another imperial onslaught.
A third and closely linked form of wishful thinking is that an authoritarian imperialist state can be peacefully transformed into a multi-ethnic democracy. Hence, figures such as Alexei Navalny and exiled oppositionists are depicted as genuine alternatives. In reality, much of the country’s elite, regardless of political ideologies, is impregnated with an imperial mentality based on arrogant notions about the superiority of Russian culture and the justifiable Russification of non-Russians. Moreover, the core institution of Moscow’s imperialism, the state security sector, survived the fall of communism and continues to threaten all captive nations and neighbors.
The fourth U.S. policy illusion is that economic cooperation can embed Russia in international institutions and transform it into a democratic market economy. The exact opposite has unfolded over the past two decades with Russian oligarchs and state organs embedding themselves internationally in order to corrupt and weaken democratic institutions. The imposition of sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine has exposed Russia’s extensive tentacles in Western financial networks, energy markets, and trade arrangements that have yet to be fully expunged.
A fifth policy illusion clearly on display in Ukraine is the notion that cooperation with imperial Russia helps foster Moscow’s peaceful coexistence with its neighbors. During Russia’s extensive invasion of Ukraine, it became crystal clear that signing agreements with the Kremlin, such as the Budapest Memorandum to ensure Ukraine’s security, is a futile exercise. The same principle applies to conventional and nuclear arms control agreements, border treaties, human rights documents, and numerous other Kremlin pledges. Moreover, Russia’s inclusion as a major power in international organizations such as the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe simply paralyzes them whenever Moscow engages in fresh attacks on neighbors.
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An essential lesson for Washington from the Russia-Ukraine war is that all illusions about Moscow should be dispelled if an effective long-term policy is to be pursued. Russia remains an aggressive imperial state, Kremlin leaders and their replacements are not pragmatists or reformers, economic transactions help Moscow subvert the West, and Russia’s neighbors will only be secure when the empire is dismantled and new states emerge.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His next book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player. He has just toured Ukraine with the Ukrainian translation of Failed State.