Proponents of the Domino Theory convinced the public to support military intervention in Vietnam. But the fall of Vietnam did not lead to a communist sweep of Southeast Asia. In the end, more than 58,000 American soldiers were lost in a conflict based on a faulty premise.
Iraq War boosters cast a similar spell over the traumatized, post-Sept. 11th public. Through unrelenting propaganda about the “imminent threat” posed by Saddam Hussein and his supposed weapons of mass destruction, on the eve of invasion, 66% of Americans erroneously believed that Hussein had aided the Sept. 11 terrorists. But there were no WMDs. And 4,431 U.S. soldiers were lost in that conflict. War operations cost $815 billion. The catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, ceding that country to the terrorist-favoring Taliban after years of war and 2,459 American dead, has similarly driven Americans into skepticism about future military engagements.
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The crisis of public trust in core American institutions is often raised in relation to the media, the justice system, the education system, and the like. But lack of trust in the government’s war-fighting institutions is perhaps the most consequential and perilous of all. Cynicism regarding U.S. military involvement of any kind is now so widespread that it is difficult to envision circumstances that would unite the country behind a necessary war effort.
To be certain, this cynicism is well-earned. But Americans must not be blinded to the very real threats and dangers to national security that continue to linger. Just because the two major conflicts of the post-war era — Vietnam and Iraq — were foisted upon the nation through questionable assumptions and falsehoods, that does not mean that a good reason to put “boots on the ground” can’t arise.
During the 2024 presidential election, alarmingly little was made of China’s stated ambitions of reunification with Taiwan in the near term under the One China Policy. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has repeatedly called reunification with Taiwan an “historical inevitability,” has been ramping up his military development at a breakneck pace in recent years. He wants to be ready not only to take the island nation by force, but to successfully contest a direct clash with the United States in doing so.
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President Joe Biden has said on numerous occasions that he would send troops to repel the Chinese should they invade. President-elect Donald Trump has voiced skepticism about defending Taiwan, though some of his national security appointments, including Sen. Marco Rubio at the State Department and Elbridge Colby at the Pentagon, suggest that he takes the China threat seriously.
This begs the question: could skeptical Americans be convinced that this would be a war worth fighting? Reflexive institutional distrust may render the defense of Taiwan a non-starter. But what if, unlike Vietnam and Iraq, this war is the one worth fighting? Some of the immediate consequences of the fall of Taiwan to China appear likely to be catastrophic.
Chinese control of Taiwan would make China the predominant economic power in the world’s most consequential and fastest-growing economic region. In addition to taking control of Taiwan’s vaunted semiconductor industry, which would give their military technology a serious boost, they would have greater leverage over global trade and supply chains, tilting the global balance of power by further weakening the U.S.’s global economic leadership.
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A Chinese victory would also fundamentally alter the geostrategic relationships the U.S. currently enjoys with other powers in the Indo-Pacific. South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and even Australia would likely cut favorable deals with China to avoid the perception of being antagonistic to the region’s predominant power. The effects of such a realignment would ripple for the remainder of the century.
The big question, then, is whether the ghosts of Iraq and Afghanistan ensure that Americans fear war more than the even worse consequences of remaining at peace?