


Wall Street is reeling for the third trading day in a row, with the “fear index” nearing multiyear highs and stocks plunging quickly after the markets opened.
Last Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced sweeping 10% tariffs on all imports and, in some cases, higher tariffs on certain countries based on trade deficits. Stocks nosedived Thursday and Friday, and those losses were extended when the U.S. market opened Monday.
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The fear surrounding Trump’s tariff policy was seen through the “fear index,” a nickname for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, better known as VIX. The VIX opened at over 60 and was up some 122% over the past few days, nearing the highest level since 2020 at the outset of the pandemic.
“The lack of any major positive tariff headlines over the weekend and continuing selling in overnight futures pushed the spot VIX to 60 early this morning,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. “Readings of this magnitude are not only historically rare, but they also often overlap near major capitulation points in market sell-offs.”
The VIX can be triggered during major events such as the pandemic or financial crisis. It typically runs inverse to stocks, so when stocks are dropping it typically moves higher and vice versa.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down 1,200 points Monday and continued to fall 1,600 points, although in the hour after opening, those losses were pared back, and it was in the green. Over the past five days, the Dow has lost more than 7% of its value.
Similarly, the S&P 500 has fallen 6.7% in five days, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has shed about 5.6% of its total value.
The Asian markets plunged overnight in the lead-up to the U.S. stock market opening Monday.
Japan’s Nikkei index dropped 7.8%, and trading in Japanese futures was suspended because the losses triggered circuit breakers. Hong Kong’s Heng Seng index fell 13.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped more than 5.5%.
Bitcoin was also down some 4% Monday and has fallen 4.4% over the past five days.
The tariffs have sparked fears of an economic downturn or even a recession. Recession indicators are also flashing red.
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JP Morgan analysts put the chance of a global recession at 60% over the coming year if the tariffs are sustained, which is up from 40% before Trump announced the sweeping tariffs. Goldman Sachs increased its projected odds of a recession from 20% to 45%.
Copper, a unique recession indicator, was also down. Copper has proven over the centuries to be a procyclical commodity, which means that when its price goes up, so typically goes the economy. Copper futures were down 12.75% over the past five days.