On net, Democrats were thrilled to jettison President Joe Biden in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the presidential ticket in July. While the president has been praised for his service and his role in toppling former President Donald Trump four years ago, there was a dearth of excitement about showing up to reelect him. 

That, of course, all changed when Biden stepped down and tapped Harris to take his place. A scramble to shore up delegates to back Harris rather than litigate a primary process ensued. Harris cobbled together several important endorsements, which snowballed into even more powerful figures saying she was the best chance Democrats had to repeat their 2020 victory. 

And while Harris’s rising tide has lifted all boats, there are some key voters in must-win “blue wall” states that aren’t nearly as excited about Harris as they were about Biden. 

“The Teamsters union caused a stir Wednesday by releasing internal polling that found former President Donald Trump leading Harris nearly two-to-one among its members,” White House Reporter Haisten Willis wrote for us this morning. “The union subsequently declined to issue an endorsement, the first time it had not backed the Democratic presidential ticket since 1996.”

“What may be even more worrying for Democrats is the shift in the support after Biden left the race. Rank-and-file Teamsters backed Biden over Trump 44.3% to 36.3%, according to the union’s own polling, but two polls taken after Biden dropped out found Trump taking nearly 60% of the vote, with Harris polling in the low 30s,” he wrote.

Harris succeeded in turning around her party’s sinking ship in several swing states and shored up reliably blue races that were trending toward becoming competitive with Biden leading the charge. The swap sparked a surge in voter registration, volunteers, and donations. The joy Harris was running on was palpable, but it appears like it might not be enough to convince Biden’s bread-and-butter voters they should throw their support behind his No. 2. 

And Trump’s team is delighted to exploit the doubt the crucial bloc in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is expressing about his challenger. 

“Workers know Kamala Harris — and her support for a fracking ban, electric vehicle mandate, and other Radical Left lunacy — would be devastating,” Trump’s campaign said in a Wednesday statement. “President Trump has always had the backs of American workers — and always will.”

Trump shocked the country with his win in 2016 primarily by pulling noncollege-educated, working-class white males away from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party. Since then, Republicans have tried to pivot away from country club conservatives and have taken on a more populist, nationalist, working-class flavor to keep those voters inside the tent. 

The makeup of support for the former president has waxed and waned, but he still performs well with men and white noncollege voters — the majority of people making up the Teamsters coalition. 

“The Teamsters union represents a largely male workforce of truckers, rail workers, and UPS drivers and has a historic independent streak,” Haisten wrote.

And for all the talk that Trump doesn’t want to, and that Republicans can’t, return the GOP to its Reaganite roots, winning the (nominal) support of the Teamsters was something the Gipper himself did.

“The group endorsed Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush before turning toward Democrats in the 1990s, and it is the only major non-law enforcement union that has not backed Harris this year,” Haisten wrote. 

Trump didn’t win the union’s support. But in a race as close as the one in 2024, denying a win for Harris is almost as good as picking up one himself. 

Click here to read more about the fierce fight for the blue wall states.

Oil and immigration

Illegal immigration has surged under the Biden administration. The massive increase is straining resources and concerning voters, who are telling pollsters they’re more amenable to Trump’s plans to begin mass deportations. 

Crime associated with illegal immigration is rising, too. And it isn’t only petty crime committed by individuals that is a rising concern. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) is raising the alarm about organized crime networks recruiting illegal immigrants carrying out “wide-scale attacks on large and small oil companies in a region that is the country’s largest oil producer,” Immigration Reporter Anna Giaritelli wrote for us this morning. 

“Gonzales said in a phone call this week that he has spent the past few months learning more about what oil theft entails, who is behind it, and why it is difficult to track stolen goods and prosecute those involved — all issues that the legislation aims to tackle,” Anna wrote.

“The locals know about this, but they just don’t have the resources to combat against it because it’s very sophisticated,” Gonzales told her. 

Tackling organized crime has been a long-fought battle in the United States, and coordinating the effort with the criminal element of an out-of-control situation at the southern border is complicating Gonzales’s efforts. 

Besides the first step of making sure penalties for stealing oil and equipment are harsh enough to deter would-be thieves, Gonzales is trying to make sure the enforcement programs protecting the sites are funded properly. As it stands, the regional oil theft task force patrolling the Permian Basin Gonzales is focusing on is a patchwork of local, tribal, state, and federal enforcement officers that doesn’t get federal funding. 

Click here to read more about the Texas oil thefts concerning border Republicans.

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For your radar

Biden is meeting with his Cabinet for the first time in 11 months this morning at 11:30. First lady Jill Biden will join the meeting to give an update on the White House Initiative on Women’s Health Research. Biden will meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at 4:45 p.m. in Wilmington, Delaware.

Harris will participate in a campaign event in Atlanta at 3:20 p.m. before going to Madison, Wisconsin, for a second event at 7:30 p.m.