Senate Democrats up for reelection in competitive districts that President Joe Biden lost or just narrowly won in 2020 appear to be distancing themselves from the president and voting against him more often.
Since the new Congress began in January, Senate Democrats in battleground states have broken with the president far more often on key topics. These vulnerable lawmakers, specifically those in red and purple states that Biden either lost or won by less than 10 percentage points, have voted in line with the president 28 points less frequently, on average, than they did in the previous Congress, according to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight.
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Although the data set is small this early in the new Congress, the analysis offers a look at how vulnerable incumbents may be tacking to Biden's right ahead of a critical election cycle.
The voting record of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has yet to announce his 2024 plans, has seen the largest decrease, with the West Virginia senator only voting in line with Biden’s position 21% of the time so far this Congress, according to the data set. That’s a 67-point decline from his 87.9% voting record during the last Congress.
The shift is not entirely surprising for Manchin as he considers reelection in a state Biden lost by nearly 40 points in 2020. Manchin is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection, possibly placing him in one of only three Senate races that are deemed to be a “toss-up.”
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), another toss-up Democrat in the 2024 election cycle, has also increasingly broken with Biden over the last few months. Since January, Tester has voted with Biden only 50% of the time — a 41-point decrease compared to the last Congress.
Tester is running for reelection in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 16.4 percentage points in 2020. Senate Republicans have zeroed in on Tester as one of their top targets next year, hoping to flip his seat and gain control of the upper chamber.
Meanwhile, a slew of other vulnerable Democrats have subtly defied Biden’s agenda in recent months. Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) have each voted with the president about 20 points less than they did during the last Congress.
Independents who caucus with the Democrats have also broken with the president, specifically Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and Angus King (ME). King has voted in line with Biden about 27 percentage points less than he did in the last Congress despite running for reelection in a solidly blue state.
Meanwhile, Sinema’s 22-point drop is not as surprising after she left the Democratic Party last year and is considering a three-way reelection campaign in a competitive swing state. The Arizona Senate race is rated as a toss-up in the 2024 cycle.
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The voting record percentages were determined by all votes taken through June 20 for which Biden or the White House had issued an opinion. The data set also excluded court nominations and votes from senators who are retiring at the end of this Congress.
As a result, the data set only includes 14 votes so far, meaning any single vote on an issue could swing the scale for any lawmaker. However, that number is comparatively higher than the five votes recorded during the first six months of the last Congress.