One thing is clear. Russia does not know what to do about its at least temporarily suspended revolutionary, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin's uncertainty follows a stunning weekend in which Prigozhin's Wagner Group mercenary force charged toward Moscow before withdrawing to Belarus.
Top line: Prigozhin has shaken the core foundations of Vladimir Putin's authority. Prioritizing the perception of his unquestioned power as much as his effective practice of it, Putin knows he now appears vulnerable and his future uncertain. For just one example of how seismic Prigozhin's short-lived revolution was, consider that his forces easily secured the Ukraine-proximate city of Rostov-on-Don. The headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District, the city's capture would be tantamount to an American rebel securing the Florida headquarters of U.S. Central Command.
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While Prigozhin's forces have now left Rostov, they retain their arms and loyalty to him. Considering Prigozhin's psychopathic tendencies and the fact that his die, at least with Putin, is cast, the Wagner leader isn't simply going to retire into obscurity. He has the means and ambition to affect Russian security policy. At a minimum, he has the means and interest to exert his military power for his own interests. Putin's Catch-22: This challenge is not one that Putin can easily tolerate or address. Reflecting as much, the Kremlin narrative as to what happens next is being defined by a mixture of wild guessing and optimistic dreaming.
Russian state and state-aligned media are playing up the notion that Prigozhin might join his forces in Africa, or split Wagner between a Prigozhin faction and a faction subordinated to the Russian general staff (even though that latter concern was the key to provoking Prigozhin's rebellion). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is absurdly suggesting that the rebellion won't affect Russia's relationship with African governments and warlords that have employed Wagner. On that point, Putin and Lavrov will be keenly aware that Beijing will view this chaos and see Putin as more vulnerable for it.
At the same time, Moscow's Kommersant newspaper reports that Prigozhin remains under FSB investigation for "insurrection." This is a not-so-subtle hint from Moscow that whatever technical deal has been reached to drop treason charges against him, Prigozhin will be a prospective target for the sharper edges of the Russian state. He'll have to be careful of old friends bearing drinks, for example.
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Still, the underlying problem for Putin is fourfold. First, Prigozhin can reinstate his challenge to the Kremlin at any time. Second, Prigozhin has annihilated the central principle of Putin's leadership narrative: his unquestioned credibility as the guarantor of Russian federal power. Third, any further Kremlin concessions to Prigozhin risk making Putin look even weaker. Fourth, Russia's war effort in Ukraine needs Wagner's support.
Put simply, while the immediate threat may have passed, Putin is facing the greatest crisis of his long premiership.