IRAN WARNING SIGNS BLINKING RED: With U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran at an impasse, the danger of a military showdown between the countries has been growing in recent days. The signs are everywhere.
It began with a report last week that critical drone defenses initially meant for Ukraine would be diverted to U.S. troops in the Middle East, something Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed in Senate testimony yesterday. “The Middle East is and remains a very dynamic theater. In the interest of putting America and Americans first, we’re going to surge counter-UAS systems to our troops and our bases and our places first if we think there’s a potential for a threat.”
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Then, the U.K. Office of Maritime Trade Operations issued a warning about the increased risk of “escalation of military activity” in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Straits of Hormuz. The U.S. State Department and the Pentagon have ordered the departure of nonessential workers and military dependents from Baghdad, Iraq, and are also authorizing the departure of nonessential personnel and family members from Bahrain and Kuwait.
“They are being moved out. It could be a dangerous place. We’ll see what happens,” President Donald Trump said while attending a performance of Les Misérables at the Kennedy Center last night. Asked by a reporter if there was “anything that could be done to dial the temperature down in the region,” Trump said, “Very simply, they can’t have a nuclear weapon. We’re not gonna allow that.”
MIDDLE EAST HEATS UP AS IRAN THREATENS US BASES
TRUMP: IRAN WANTS WHAT IT CAN’T HAVE: In recent days, Trump has toned down his optimistic rhetoric about prospects for reaching a deal with Iran, with the sticking point being Tehran’s insistence that it must retain the right to enrich uranium at a low level for use in peaceful energy generation.
“Well, they’re just asking for things that you can’t do,” Trump said Monday. “They don’t want to give up what they have to give up. You know what that is. They seek enrichment. We can’t have enrichment.”
“We’re trying to make a deal so that there’s no destruction and death. And we’ve told them that, and I’ve told them that, and I hope that’s the way it works out, but it might not work out that way. We’ll soon find out,” Trump said at a meeting of business leaders at the White House. “And so far, they’re not there. I hate to say that because the alternative is a very, very dire one, but they’re not there. They have given us their thoughts on the deal. And I said, you know, it’s just not acceptable.”
“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame, but I’m less confident now than I would have been a couple of months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,” Trump told the New York Post. “But I don’t think I see the same level of enthusiasm for them to make a deal.”
A meeting between U.S. and Iranian negotiators originally set for today has been tentatively rescheduled for Sunday, where talks between U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are set to resume in Muscat, Oman.
MILITARY CONSIDERING ‘WIDE RANGE OF OPTIONS’ ON HOW TO STOP IRAN FROM OBTAINING NUCLEAR WEAPONS
ISRAEL IS THE WILD CARD: Both the New York Times and the Washington Post are reporting that Israel appears intent on launching an attack against Iran’s military facilities, with or without U.S. support, and that is the primary driver behind the reduction of U.S. personnel and the bolstering of military defenses in the region.
“In recent months, U.S. intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the United States,” the Washington Post reported. “Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets in the region.”
“It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing,” the New York Times said. “But the rising tensions come after months in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike.”
Two weeks ago, Trump said he had warned Netanyahu against taking any military action while negotiations with Iran were still ongoing.
“It would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying, it’s so much nicer to do it,” Trump told the New York Post. “If they don’t make a deal, they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. If they do make a deal, they’re not going have a nuclear weapon, too … so it’s not going to matter from that standpoint.”
UN NUCLEAR WATCHDOG’S BOARD OF GOVERNORS FINDS IRAN ISN’T COMPLYING WITH ITS NUCLEAR OBLIGATIONS
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: ANTI-ICE UNREST SPREADING: Los Angeles was relatively calm overnight, as a curfew remains in effect for a second day. A curfew has also been imposed in Spokane, Washington, and in Seattle, where protesters threw bottles and rocks at police, resulting in several arrests, as protests against Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration and his federalization of the National Guard spread to other cities, including Chicago, New York, and San Antonio.
In Senate testimony yesterday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the Trump administration will not hesitate to send the National Guard anywhere local authorities can’t contain the unrest.
“The orders that have been issued, which are publicly available and known, relate to an ongoing situation in Los Angeles, which could expand to other places,” Hegesth told the Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee.
“In the order, it does not specify a location. It does not specify which Marines or which Guard,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) quizzed Hegseth. “I’m just trying to figure out, did you just potentially mobilize every Guard everywhere and every service member everywhere?”
“Part of it is getting ahead of a problem so that if in other places, if there are other riots in places where law enforcement officers are threatened, we would have the capability to surge National Guard there if necessary,” Hegseth said. “And thankfully, in most of those states, you’d have a governor that recognizes the need for it, supports it, and mobilizes it, him or herself. In California, unfortunately, the governor wants to play politics with it.”
NATIONAL GUARD COMMANDER SAYS MEMBERS TRAINED TO DETAIN LA PROTESTERS IN CORRECTING EARLIER COMMENTS
‘RAIZIN’ CAINE BEGS TO DIFFER: At least twice, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine offered a different assessment than his boss sitting beside him.
Asked by Schatz, “Is the United States being invaded by a foreign nation?” Caine replied, “I think at this point in time, I don’t see any foreign state-sponsored folks invading, but I’ll be mindful of the fact that there has been some border issues throughout time, and defer to DHS who handles the border along the nation’s contiguous outline.”
“Is there a rebellion somewhere in the United States?” Schatz followed up. “Sir, I think there’s definitely some frustrated folks out there.”
Hegseth was quick to offer his own assessment. “It’s quite easy to point out that there has been an invasion of 21 million illegals in our country under the previous administration,” he said.
At another point, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a former Air Force JAG officer, grilled Caine and Hegseth in his trademark bullet point style. Here’s how it went:
Graham: Does China intend to take Taiwan by force if necessary?
Hegseth: We don’t believe they’ve made that decision yet, but certainly, if you look at their exercises that they’re performing in that area, they look a lot like what that would look like.
Graham: What do you think, General Caine? Do you think China is intent on taking Taiwan?
Caine: Sir, I think, not to split hairs, but I think it depends on how you define take.
Graham: I mean, like, take it over.
Caine: I think if they could get them their way for sure. Do I think they’re going to use military capability? Maybe, maybe not. Do we need to be prepared for that? Yes.
Graham: Is Putin going to stop in Ukraine?
Caine: I don’t, I don’t believe he is sir. I think he’ll go until…
Graham: What do you think, Secretary? Is he going to stop?
Hegseth: Remains to be seen, Senator.
Graham: Well, he says he’s not. You know, this is the 30’s all over. It doesn’t remain to be seen. He tells everybody around what he wants to do. Are you familiar with his military buildup in terms of armaments? It’s well beyond what we need to do to take Ukraine.
HEGSETH WON’T SAY IF US WANTS RUSSIA OR UKRAINE TO WIN WAR
I STAND CORRECTED: In yesterday’s edition of this newsletter, I mistakenly reported that President Trump was dropping the pretense of finding other obscure military heroes with the same name as Confederate military leaders to restore the name of Army bases to their old names.
I violated the tried and true journalism rule that you should have at least two sources for controversial stories, and I assumed I could go with just one. President Donald Trump clearly stated in his remarks to troops at Fort Bragg that he was honoring Confederate Gens. Ambrose Powell Hill and Robert E. Lee by restoring their names to Fort Walker and Fort Gregg-Adams, respectively.
Had I (or Trump) checked with the Army, we would have known that all the old names have new namesakes, so the old names can be brought back without violating a 2021 law that military installations not be named for traitors. (wink wink)
I also said Trump signed the original bill into law that required the renaming of Army bases for modern heroes. That was incorrect. The law passed when Congress overwhelmingly overturned President Trump’s veto.
“What he’s doing is he’s choosing surname over service,” retired Brig. Gen. Ty Seidule, who served as the vice chairman of the Congressional Naming Commission, said on CNN. “Rather than going with the names we chose over a 20-month period that reflect the communities and the mission of each individual Army base, he’s choosing ones that just have the last names. I don’t think that’s what the communities wanted.”
“We went and visited each post. We did a website where we had 33,000 names … We then necked that down to 10 names. Then from those 10 names, we went back to the communities and selected the ones that we- we came up with,” Seidule said.
“With Fort Cavazos, this is a seventh-generation Texas, born on the King Ranch, commanded that post, was a Medal of Honor recipient in the Korean War, and then Distinguished Service Cross. We, for the first time with the Moore family, recognized the Army family. We were able to talk about, as you know so well, the importance that it takes a family to serve the nation. That’s what we were able to do with Fort Moore.”
“We didn’t go after diversity. We just chose the people that best reflected those areas and the mission that they did. They were great Americans, great heroes who served their nation. And we wanted to recognize them,” Seidule said. “And what I fear is that this will now be a political tennis match. And what happens if the next go round, but let’s say that the next administration chooses Fort Biden, named after Beau Biden. It will be a tennis match then for years and years to come.”
LEFT-WING GROUPS PLAN EVENTS TO COUNTER ARMY’S 250TH BIRTHDAY CELEBRATION
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Middle East heats up as Iran threatens US bases
Washington Examiner: National Guard commander says members trained to detain LA protesters in correcting earlier comments
Washington Examiner: Marine head says troops won’t engage with rioters in LA without proper training
Washington Examiner: Illegal immigrant charged for throwing Molotov cocktail during Los Angeles riots
Washington Examiner: Greg Abbott deploys National Guard across Texas ahead of anti-ICE protests
Washington Examiner: Hegseth won’t say if US wants Russia or Ukraine to win war
Washington Examiner: Senate rejects effort to block Trump’s military deals with Qatar and UAE
Washington Examiner: US warns allies not to attend Israel-Palestinian conference in New York
Washington Examiner: Seven takeaways from Pete Hegseth’s Senate showdown over Pentagon spending
Washington Examiner: Taiwan political parties hit with widespread charges of Chinese espionage
Washington Examiner: Mike Rogers warns about Chinese students in US research
Washington Examiner: Former CIA analyst sentenced to prison for illegally sharing ‘top secret’ information
Washington Examiner: Left-wing groups plan events to counter Army’s 250th birthday celebration
Washington Examiner: US veterans group aids Peruvian bust of international human trafficking ring
Washington Examiner: Opinion: What happens when the Jalisco New Generation Cartel kills Americans?
Washington Examiner: Editorial: Strengthen, don’t soften the Russia sanctions bill
Wall Street Journal: Where Russia Is Advancing in Ukraine and What It Hopes to Gain
AP: Troops Begin Detaining Immigrants in National Defense Zone at Border in Escalation of Military Role
Military.com: Hegseth Suggests LA-Style Troop Deployments Could Happen Anywhere in US ‘If Necessary’
AP: Court hearing set on Trump’s use of National Guard and Marines to help with immigration raids in LA
Military.com: Bragg Soldiers Who Cheered Trump’s Political Attacks While in Uniform Were Checked for Allegiance, Appearance
The War Zone: Mysterious Shipping Container Rocket Launcher Spotted At Trump’s Visit To Fort Bragg
Space News: Lawmakers Find Common Ground on Space but Golden Dome Sparks Divide
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Defense Budget Debate Spotlights Republican Divide on Ukraine
Inside Defense: DOD Proposal Would Cut Space Force Procurement 7 Percent, Even with Reconciliation
Air & Space Forces Magazine: What Might the Future Hold for the F-35?
Breaking Defense: B-52 Radar Upgrade Faces New Delays, GAO Says
New York Times: U.S. Teacher Seized by Russia Is Located in Prison
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Aid Society Launches New Financial Aid, Child Care Programs